0x4b2d…f0d4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4b2d0bbb55b0f92e30edbf2e5f944b089a6af0d4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+18.5pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

91% @ 72.1¢

Brier

0.118

Resolved

211

Avg size

$536

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	80% (24/30)	+19%	30
Other	72% (21/29)	+27%	29
Sports	67% (2/3)	+18%	3
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+21%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+30%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+11%	1

Politics30 bets
Hit rate
80% (24/30)
ROI
+19%
Other29 bets
Hit rate
72% (21/29)
ROI
+27%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+21%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+30%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+11%

Track record

76% hit · 52/68

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Set 1 Winner: Blockx vs Zverev	Zverev	$101	73.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$666	86.5¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$962	55.0¢	Won
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship?	No	$3	86.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.3k	83.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$6.7k	88.0¢	Won
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	$583	81.2¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$998	76.7¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$1.8k	75.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$252	76.9¢	Won
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	Yes	$863	81.3¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$500	62.9¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$257	44.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$3.4k	82.3¢	Won
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	No	$885	78.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$1.6k	69.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$6.0k	80.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	89.9¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	$204	71.9¢	Lost
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx	Casper Ruud	$101	74.0¢	Lost
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya	Anastasia Potapova	$151	85.0¢	Lost
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	$750	87.8¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$17.0k	79.1¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$3.3k	81.0¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?	No	$1.5k	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.7k	89.5¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$1.0k	57.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$3.8k	80.3¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$3.0k	74.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$51	29.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$1.5k	52.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	89.0¢	Won
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi	Matteo Arnaldi	$203	54.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$1000	54.0¢	Lost
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$592	62.2¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$666	86.0¢	Won
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	Yes	$733	56.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$250	70.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	5.6¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	$2.0k	90.0¢	Won
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$1.2k	76.4¢	Won
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$750	86.8¢	Won
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	$15	16.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$3.8k	79.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$1.5k	83.0¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$1.5k	81.9¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$893	89.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	No	$3.6k	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$325	67.9¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	No	$500	83.0¢	Won

Set 1 Winner: Blockx vs ZverevWon
Zverev$101 @ 73.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$666 @ 86.5¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$962 @ 55.0¢
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship?Won
No$3 @ 86.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.3k @ 83.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$6.7k @ 88.0¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Won
No$583 @ 81.2¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$998 @ 76.7¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 75.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$252 @ 76.9¢
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Won
Yes$863 @ 81.3¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$500 @ 62.9¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$257 @ 44.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$3.4k @ 82.3¢
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Won
No$885 @ 78.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 69.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$6.0k @ 80.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 89.9¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Lost
No$204 @ 71.9¢
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander BlockxLost
Casper Ruud$101 @ 74.0¢
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna KalinskayaLost
Anastasia Potapova$151 @ 85.0¢
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Won
No$750 @ 87.8¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$17.0k @ 79.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$3.3k @ 81.0¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 89.5¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 57.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$3.8k @ 80.3¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 74.3¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$51 @ 29.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1.5k @ 52.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 89.0¢
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo ArnaldiWon
Matteo Arnaldi$203 @ 54.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 54.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$592 @ 62.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$666 @ 86.0¢
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?Won
Yes$733 @ 56.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$250 @ 70.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 5.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Won
No$2.0k @ 90.0¢
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 76.4¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
No$750 @ 86.8¢
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael JodarLost
Rafael Jodar$15 @ 16.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$3.8k @ 79.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 83.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 81.9¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$893 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Won
No$3.6k @ 81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$325 @ 67.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$13.0k	86.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$8.7k	79.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$7.5k	88.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$5.0k	76.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$4.2k	94.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	64.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.0k	89.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.4k	89.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$2.0k	79.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$2.0k	78.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	—	No	$1.5k	90.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	93.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$1000	71.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1000	27.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$666	92.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$600	89.8¢
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?	Politics	No	$426	95.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$250	92.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$250	56.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$229	4.2¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$200	92.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	66.9¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$100	93.5¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	91.7¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	88.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	81.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$100	61.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$79	78.9¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$50	93.1¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	Crypto	No	$50	93.3¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$13.0k @ 86.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$8.7k @ 79.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$7.5k @ 88.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$5.0k @ 76.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$4.2k @ 94.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 64.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$3.0k @ 89.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$2.4k @ 89.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$2.0k @ 79.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$2.0k @ 78.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?—
No$1.5k @ 90.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 93.7¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
No$1000 @ 71.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 27.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$666 @ 92.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$600 @ 89.8¢
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?Politics
No$426 @ 95.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$250 @ 92.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$250 @ 56.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$229 @ 4.2¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$200 @ 92.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 66.9¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$100 @ 93.5¢
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 91.7¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 81.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 61.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$79 @ 78.9¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 93.1¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Crypto
No$50 @ 93.3¢