0x477f…19aa

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x477f156a229f1a174fdf945c778b7362dd2b19aa
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.7pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

54% @ 43.3¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

3374

Avg size

$119

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (179/369)	+17%	369
Politics	69% (18/26)	+21%	26
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+26%	3
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+100%	1

Other369 bets
Hit rate
49% (179/369)
ROI
+17%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
69% (18/26)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+26%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+100%

Track record

50% hit · 200/401

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	$2.3k	93.0¢	Won
Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 4 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?	No	$70	50.0¢	Won
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	No	$51	89.4¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$2.3k	61.1¢	Won
Team World vs. Team USA Stripes	Team USA Stripes	$949	43.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$130	13.0¢	Lost
Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?	No	$64	29.0¢	Lost
Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?	Yes	$35	79.4¢	Won
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$8	4.0¢	Lost
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	$3.1k	86.7¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$1.2k	51.1¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$707	52.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$4.3k	74.8¢	Won
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$1.2k	24.4¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$2.3k	56.6¢	Won
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$349	9.9¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$340	85.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$890	56.9¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$28	0.5¢	Lost
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-02-12?	No	$29	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$295	72.0¢	Won
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?	Yes	$54	33.7¢	Won
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?	No	$52	77.0¢	Won
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$154	11.0¢	Lost
Will Luca Harrington (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$12	13.6¢	Lost
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$284	13.5¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by March 31?	No	$72	72.0¢	Won
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 4 Man (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$19	75.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$86	43.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$100	50.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$680	68.0¢	Lost
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$42	42.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	Yes	$25	1.2¢	Lost
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?	No	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?	No	$533	48.4¢	Lost
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?	Yes	$81	10.9¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$3.5k	70.5¢	Lost
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?	Yes	$108	25.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	Yes	$130	13.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$112	48.0¢	Won
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5	Under	$2.8k	56.0¢	Lost
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$722	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?	Yes	$5	73.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?	No	$21	69.0¢	Won
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Patriots	$17	0.2¢	Lost
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Seahawks	$5.2k	74.4¢	Won
Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?	Yes	$857	77.9¢	Won
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$139	63.0¢	Won

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 93.0¢
Will Jackson Olson be eliminated in week 4 of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35?Won
No$70 @ 50.0¢
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$51 @ 89.4¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$2.3k @ 61.1¢
Team World vs. Team USA StripesWon
Team USA Stripes$949 @ 43.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$130 @ 13.0¢
Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?Lost
No$64 @ 29.0¢
Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?Won
Yes$35 @ 79.4¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.0¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Won
No$3.1k @ 86.7¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$1.2k @ 51.1¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$707 @ 52.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$4.3k @ 74.8¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
No$1.2k @ 24.4¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 56.6¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$349 @ 9.9¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
No$340 @ 85.0¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$890 @ 56.9¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$28 @ 0.5¢
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-02-12?Lost
No$29 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$295 @ 72.0¢
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Won
Yes$54 @ 33.7¢
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday?Won
No$52 @ 77.0¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$154 @ 11.0¢
Will Luca Harrington (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$12 @ 13.6¢
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Won
Yes$284 @ 13.5¢
Weed rescheduled by March 31?Won
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Will Johannes Lochner (GER) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bobsled - 4 Man (Driver) at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Won
Yes$19 @ 75.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$86 @ 43.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 50.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$680 @ 68.0¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Won
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$42 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Lost
Yes$25 @ 1.2¢
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Won
No$10 @ 52.0¢
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?Lost
No$533 @ 48.4¢
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?Won
Yes$81 @ 10.9¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$3.5k @ 70.5¢
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?Lost
Yes$108 @ 25.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Lost
Yes$130 @ 13.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$112 @ 48.0¢
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5Lost
Under$2.8k @ 56.0¢
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$722 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 73.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?Won
No$21 @ 69.0¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsLost
Patriots$17 @ 0.2¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsWon
Seahawks$5.2k @ 74.4¢
Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Won
Yes$857 @ 77.9¢
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$139 @ 63.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$18.0k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$18.0k	50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$16.7k	83.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$10.8k	82.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$7.8k	78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.9k	91.7¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.7k	91.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.1k	80.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5.0k	70.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.8k	68.4¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.2k	85.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.8k	73.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	50.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.4k	92.2¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.3k	93.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2.3k	91.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.2k	48.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	28.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$2.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$1.9k	77.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.7k	83.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.7k	71.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	80.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$1.3k	78.8¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	61.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	23.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	88.1¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	89.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$940	47.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$880	88.0¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$18.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$18.0k @ 50.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$16.7k @ 83.7¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$10.8k @ 82.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$7.8k @ 78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$5.9k @ 91.7¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$5.7k @ 91.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$5.1k @ 80.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5.0k @ 70.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$4.8k @ 68.4¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$4.2k @ 85.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$3.8k @ 73.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 50.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.4k @ 92.2¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$2.3k @ 93.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$2.3k @ 91.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.2k @ 48.3¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 28.1¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$2.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$1.9k @ 77.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1.7k @ 83.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$1.7k @ 71.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 80.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$1.3k @ 78.8¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 61.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 23.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 88.1¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 89.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$940 @ 47.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$880 @ 88.0¢