0x474a…c816

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x474a676f101c6fe4938ed053656cf9bbc443c816
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+18.7pp

ROI

+196%

Win rate

49% @ 30.4¢

Brier

0.255

Resolved

163

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (21/39)	+1025%	39
Politics	24% (9/38)	-49%	38
Geopolitics	11% (1/9)	-99%	9
Economy	88% (7/8)	+50%	8
Tech	25% (1/4)	-55%	4
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+194%	1

Other39 bets
Hit rate
54% (21/39)
ROI
+1025%
Politics38 bets
Hit rate
24% (9/38)
ROI
-49%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
11% (1/9)
ROI
-99%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+50%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-55%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+194%

Track record

40% hit · 40/101

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	55.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$1	46.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$1	43.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	$1	96.6¢	Won
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$6	46.2¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$27	71.0¢	Won
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	98.1¢	Won
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$4	33.0¢	Lost
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	No	$7	39.8¢	Lost
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	No	$1	22.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	13.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Yes	$31	19.6¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$113	15.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$25	42.7¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	96.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	No	$55	58.9¢	Won
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$1	67.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	$44	31.9¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	$1	97.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$42	48.4¢	Won
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?	No	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	6.8¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$5	60.2¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$1	22.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$125	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$75	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$4	15.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$1	83.0¢	Won
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25?	No	$1	86.0¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$4	5.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2	27.0¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	Yes	$2	7.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$36	34.0¢	Won
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?	No	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Lost
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	55.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$1	15.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$24	2.0¢	Won

Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 55.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$1 @ 46.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$1 @ 43.0¢
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?Won
No$1 @ 96.6¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
No$6 @ 46.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$27 @ 71.0¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 98.1¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 33.0¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
No$7 @ 39.8¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Lost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Lost
No$1 @ 22.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 19.6¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$113 @ 15.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$25 @ 42.7¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 96.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Won
No$55 @ 58.9¢
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 67.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Lost
Yes$44 @ 31.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Won
No$1 @ 97.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$42 @ 48.4¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 4.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.8¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.5¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$5 @ 60.2¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 22.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$125 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 15.9¢
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25?Won
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 34.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?Lost
No$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?Won
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$1 @ 15.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$24 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	53.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$23	67.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$21	47.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$20	62.8¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$9	90.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$9	47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	40.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$2	71.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	95.0¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?	Economy	No	$1	93.9¢
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Business	Yes	$1	90.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1	95.3¢
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1	94.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$1	91.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	6.9¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	3.0¢

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 53.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$23 @ 67.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$21 @ 47.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$20 @ 62.8¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 90.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$9 @ 47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 40.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$2 @ 71.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 95.0¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?Economy
No$1 @ 93.9¢
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?Business
Yes$1 @ 90.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 95.3¢
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 94.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$1 @ 91.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢