0x474a…c816

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x474a676f101c6fe4938ed053656cf9bbc443c816
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+18.7pp

ROI

+226%

Win rate

46% @ 27.6¢

Brier

0.250

Resolved

162

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (21/38)	+1035%	38
Politics	18% (4/22)	-92%	22
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Tech	25% (1/4)	-55%	4
Economy	100% (3/3)	+64%	3
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+194%	1

Other38 bets
Hit rate
55% (21/38)
ROI
+1035%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
18% (4/22)
ROI
-92%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-55%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+64%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+194%

Track record

40% hit · 30/75

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$5	60.2¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$1	22.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$125	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$75	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$4	15.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$1	83.0¢	Won
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25?	No	$1	86.0¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$4	5.7¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2	27.0¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	Yes	$2	7.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$36	34.0¢	Won
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?	No	$1	44.0¢	Lost
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Lost
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	55.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	$1	15.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$24	2.0¢	Won
James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	$1	78.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	$1	51.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	4.1¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$1	34.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$2	13.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	40.1¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$1	55.1¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?	Yes	$2	68.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Kings vs. Kraken	Kings	$3	71.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$6	63.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$25	13.1¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	$2	63.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?	No	$1	7.4¢	Lost
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	43.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	$1	33.0¢	Lost

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.5¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$5 @ 60.2¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 22.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$125 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 15.9¢
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-25?Won
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.7¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 34.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?Lost
No$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?Won
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Won
No$1 @ 15.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$24 @ 2.0¢
James Comey arrested by April 29?Won
Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Won
No$1 @ 51.0¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.1¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$1 @ 34.0¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 40.1¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$1 @ 55.1¢
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?Won
Yes$2 @ 68.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Kings vs. KrakenWon
Kings$3 @ 71.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$6 @ 63.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 13.1¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Won
Yes$2 @ 63.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 7.4¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 43.0¢
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 33.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$114	15.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$66	55.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$42	48.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$27	71.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	53.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$21	47.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$20	62.8¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$9	90.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$9	47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$3	40.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Economy	Yes	$2	43.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	91.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	3.0¢
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?	Business	Yes	$1	90.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	94.1¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1	98.1¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?	Economy	No	$1	96.7¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	95.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$1	61.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$1	91.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	—	No	$1	91.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	93.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$1	59.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.6¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1	2.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	6.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$114 @ 15.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$66 @ 55.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics
Yes$42 @ 48.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$27 @ 71.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 53.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$21 @ 47.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$20 @ 62.8¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 90.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$9 @ 47.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 40.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Economy
Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 91.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?Business
Yes$1 @ 90.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 94.1¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 98.1¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?Economy
No$1 @ 96.7¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 95.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?—
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$1 @ 91.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?—
No$1 @ 91.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 93.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.6¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢