0x4656…41d7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4656e8343107c975f8ae74b45c8308bf868241d7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.5pp

ROI

+37%

Win rate

57% @ 41.1¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

1869

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (12/28)	-23%	28
Politics	67% (18/27)	+51%	27
Geopolitics	38% (5/13)	+11%	13
Tech	29% (2/7)	+135%	7
Economy	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	100% (1/1)	+83%	1

Other28 bets
Hit rate
43% (12/28)
ROI
-23%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
67% (18/27)
ROI
+51%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
+11%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+135%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+83%

Track record

48% hit · 38/79

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$13	5.2¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$11	37.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$10	6.4¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$22	7.4¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$219	40.2¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$82	54.6¢	Won
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	$2	3.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$33	54.5¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$48	61.5¢	Won
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	No	$28	34.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$1	0.9¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$3	1.6¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$134	46.2¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$58	86.3¢	Won
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	No	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	$11	11.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	No	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$241	83.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$40	79.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$45	61.4¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	$24	9.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$113	47.3¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$15	33.3¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$23	76.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$64	63.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$100	64.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$3.5k	66.3¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$10	27.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$19	6.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	$77	37.2¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$10	2.2¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$13	9.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$5	2.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$25	56.3¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	$38	51.2¢	Lost
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	No	$51	56.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	$12	5.2¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$11	25.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$6	3.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?	No	$35	78.7¢	Won
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$50	76.8¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$302	53.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	No	$59	40.3¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	No	$4	6.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$99	37.6¢	Won
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?	No	$13	89.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	No	$54	49.5¢	Won

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$13 @ 5.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$11 @ 37.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$10 @ 6.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$22 @ 7.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$219 @ 40.2¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$82 @ 54.6¢
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 3.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$2 @ 1.1¢
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$33 @ 54.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$48 @ 61.5¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Lost
No$28 @ 34.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$1 @ 0.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$3 @ 1.6¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$134 @ 46.2¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$58 @ 86.3¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Lost
No$0 @ 1.1¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 11.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Lost
No$2 @ 2.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$241 @ 83.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 79.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$45 @ 61.4¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 9.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$113 @ 47.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 33.3¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$23 @ 76.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$64 @ 63.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$100 @ 64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$3.5k @ 66.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$10 @ 27.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$19 @ 6.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Lost
No$77 @ 37.2¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 11.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$10 @ 2.2¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 9.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$5 @ 2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 56.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$38 @ 51.2¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Won
No$51 @ 56.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 5.2¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 25.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
No$6 @ 3.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?Won
No$35 @ 78.7¢
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$50 @ 76.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$302 @ 53.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?Won
No$59 @ 40.3¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?Lost
No$4 @ 6.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$99 @ 37.6¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?Won
No$13 @ 89.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?Won
No$54 @ 49.5¢

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