0x4478…02a4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.7pp

ROI

+80%

Win rate

35% @ 26.7¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

3377

Avg size

$209

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	48% (62/130)	+139%	130
Other	47% (36/77)	-37%	77
Geopolitics	43% (20/46)	-21%	46
Sports	0% (0/7)	-100%	7
Economy	100% (1/1)	+75%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+135%	1

Politics130 bets
Hit rate
48% (62/130)
ROI
+139%
Other77 bets
Hit rate
47% (36/77)
ROI
-37%
Geopolitics46 bets
Hit rate
43% (20/46)
ROI
-21%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/7)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+75%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+135%

Track record

46% hit · 120/263

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?	No	$4.0k	98.5¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	$1.8k	98.5¢	Won
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	Yes	$11	4.9¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$3.9k	87.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$5.9k	6.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$684	79.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	No	$667	86.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$4.1k	68.1¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$106	1.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$830	2.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	6.3¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.5k	63.3¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$200	20.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$1.4k	70.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$2.0k	50.1¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$3.0k	19.9¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$4.8k	69.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$2.5k	84.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$1.1k	22.5¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	No	$78	78.4¢	Won
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$19.9k	70.9¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$13	66.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$6	31.0¢	Won
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	No	$180	89.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$174	31.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	No	$1.5k	81.8¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	No	$85	59.4¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$7.3k	73.3¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$2.2k	84.1¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1.3k	2.5¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	$762	10.7¢	Lost
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	No	$290	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$314	34.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	No	$12	12.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$1.0k	20.9¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$150	16.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$4.3k	68.7¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$47	0.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$10.4k	80.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$980	24.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.0k	80.1¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$185	1.3¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$5.2k	74.1¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$21	1.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$697	50.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$519	19.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$739	25.6¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$2.3k	30.4¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$117	3.3¢	Won

Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?Won
No$4.0k @ 98.5¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 98.5¢
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsLost
Yes$11 @ 4.9¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$3.9k @ 87.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.9k @ 6.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$684 @ 79.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Won
No$667 @ 86.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$4.1k @ 68.1¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$106 @ 1.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$830 @ 2.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 6.3¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5.5k @ 63.3¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 20.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$1.4k @ 70.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 50.1¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$3.0k @ 19.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$4.8k @ 69.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$2.5k @ 84.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 22.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Won
No$78 @ 78.4¢
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$19.9k @ 70.9¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 31.0¢
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Won
No$180 @ 89.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$174 @ 31.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Won
No$1.5k @ 81.8¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Won
No$85 @ 59.4¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$7.3k @ 73.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$2.2k @ 84.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 2.5¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsLost
FURIA$762 @ 10.7¢
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Won
No$290 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$314 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 12.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 20.9¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Lost
Yes$150 @ 16.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$4.3k @ 68.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$47 @ 0.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$10.4k @ 80.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$980 @ 24.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8.0k @ 80.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$185 @ 1.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$5.2k @ 74.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$21 @ 1.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$697 @ 50.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$519 @ 19.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$739 @ 25.6¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$2.3k @ 30.4¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$117 @ 3.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$21.6k	6.6¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$11.4k	69.8¢
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?	Politics	Yes	$8.6k	85.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6.7k	52.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Politics	Yes	$5.5k	97.2¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.1k	81.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	79.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	6.7¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$2.9k	95.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	55.9¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	13.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	25.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$2.3k	93.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	42.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	36.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.2k	58.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2.0k	23.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.0k	99.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.8k	90.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.6k	32.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.6k	22.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.5k	76.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.4k	57.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	46.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.0k	31.4¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$934	10.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$850	17.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$790	79.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	No	$770	77.0¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$756	10.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$21.6k @ 6.6¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$11.4k @ 69.8¢
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
Yes$8.6k @ 85.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$6.7k @ 52.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Politics
Yes$5.5k @ 97.2¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.1k @ 81.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 79.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 6.7¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$2.9k @ 95.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 55.9¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 13.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 25.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$2.3k @ 93.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$2.3k @ 42.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 36.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2.2k @ 58.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2.0k @ 23.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$2.0k @ 99.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.6k @ 32.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1.6k @ 22.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.5k @ 76.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$1.4k @ 57.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 46.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.0k @ 31.4¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$934 @ 10.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$850 @ 17.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Politics
Yes$790 @ 79.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
No$770 @ 77.0¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$756 @ 10.9¢