0x43fd…01cf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x43fd907ca341790318abf1528a0edc59101f01cf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.3pp

ROI

+35%

Win rate

40% @ 24.8¢

Brier

0.207

Resolved

242

Avg size

$39

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	23% (14/62)	+34%	62
Politics	40% (2/5)	+201%	5
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other62 bets
Hit rate
23% (14/62)
ROI
+34%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+201%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

22% hit · 16/72

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$18	46.0¢	Won
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?	Yes	$21	33.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	No	$2	9.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	$20	34.1¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the Bucharest mayoral election?	Yes	$9	13.6¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	No	$40	5.8¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$27	58.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$100	62.0¢	Won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?	Yes	$45	3.8¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$199	67.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$112	74.4¢	Won
Will Ciprian Ciucu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?	Yes	$4	18.0¢	Lost
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?	Yes	$10	0.7¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?	No	$275	5.5¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$19	38.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?	No	$139	26.5¢	Won
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?	Yes	$10	8.6¢	Won
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?	Yes	$11	2.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	No	$69	69.0¢	Lost
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$117	6.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?	No	$236	68.0¢	Won
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$10	1.4¢	Lost
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	Yes	$6	5.3¢	Lost
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?	Yes	$842	6.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$16	31.0¢	Lost
Will Daniel Băluță get less than 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	Yes	$3	3.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$132	42.0¢	Lost
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	No	$100	36.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$10	29.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?	Yes	$290	12.2¢	Lost
Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	Yes	$12	24.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$15	30.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	$12	34.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?	Yes	$5	1.9¢	Lost
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?	Yes	$14	28.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	Yes	$154	22.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$100	68.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$16	32.0¢	Lost
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	$7	2.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	35.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?	No	$184	14.4¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	$33	14.1¢	Lost
Will Ciprian Ciucu get less than 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	Yes	$8	1.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$2.3k	44.8¢	Lost

Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Won
Yes$18 @ 46.0¢
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?Lost
Yes$21 @ 33.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Lost
No$2 @ 9.1¢
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Catalin Drula finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Lost
No$20 @ 34.1¢
Will another candidate win the Bucharest mayoral election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 13.6¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Lost
No$40 @ 5.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$27 @ 58.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$100 @ 62.0¢
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?Lost
Yes$45 @ 3.8¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$199 @ 67.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$112 @ 74.4¢
Will Ciprian Ciucu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 18.0¢
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.7¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?Lost
No$275 @ 5.5¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 38.0¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?Won
No$139 @ 26.5¢
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?Won
Yes$10 @ 8.6¢
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.4¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Lost
No$69 @ 69.0¢
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Lost
Yes$117 @ 6.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Won
No$236 @ 68.0¢
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.4¢
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.3¢
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?Lost
Yes$842 @ 6.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 31.0¢
Will Daniel Băluță get less than 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$132 @ 42.0¢
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Won
No$100 @ 36.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$10 @ 29.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?Lost
Yes$290 @ 12.2¢
Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Lost
Yes$12 @ 24.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
No$15 @ 30.0¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 34.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.9¢
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?Lost
Yes$14 @ 28.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Lost
Yes$154 @ 22.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$100 @ 68.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$16 @ 32.0¢
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Lost
No$184 @ 14.4¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 14.1¢
Will Ciprian Ciucu get less than 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$2.3k @ 44.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$300	92.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$90	9.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$24	24.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$9	4.4¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	24.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$300 @ 92.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$90 @ 9.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$9 @ 4.4¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢