0x4211…acc7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4211701dcc2c05f28057c7ba4dba5fc75b0cacc7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+11.8pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

43% @ 31.5¢

Brier

0.260

Resolved

113

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (20/62)	+20%	62
Politics	33% (1/3)	-34%	3
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-32%	3
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other62 bets
Hit rate
32% (20/62)
ROI
+20%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-34%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-32%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

31% hit · 22/70

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will France vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	$6	24.0¢	Lost
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	$5	37.3¢	Lost
France vs. England: O/U 4.5	Under	$75	75.0¢	Lost
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 1.5	Over	$22	43.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	$5	47.0¢	Lost
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	$11	24.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	$6	8.7¢	Lost
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	$9	29.0¢	Lost
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals	Yes	$9	4.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	$5	49.0¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	$26	32.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	$20	28.0¢	Won
Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.6M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	$144	96.0¢	Won
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$10	25.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	$6	23.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$6	25.5¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$37	36.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$9	8.8¢	Lost
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$6	1.2¢	Lost
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	$5	5.3¢	Lost
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$30	37.5¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$40	56.5¢	Won
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$16	52.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$23	46.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Won
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5	Over	$39	77.0¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Paycheck to Paycheck" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	$6	16.0¢	Lost
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	$7	32.5¢	Lost
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	No	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 France?	Yes	$5	6.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	Argentina	$42	68.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$120	85.7¢	Won
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?	Yes	$17	21.0¢	Lost
France vs. England: O/U 1.5	Over	$60	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$21	35.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Healthcare" or "Health care" 8+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	$13	32.0¢	Lost
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Colombia	$17	55.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?	Yes	$82	55.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$53	53.0¢	Won
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	$74	58.4¢	Won
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$44	21.1¢	Lost
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$12	8.1¢	Lost
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$33	66.0¢	Won
Will Bernie Sanders say "Percent" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$58	56.8¢	Lost

Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will France vs. England end in a draw?Lost
Yes$6 @ 24.0¢
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 37.3¢
France vs. England: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$75 @ 75.0¢
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 1.5Lost
Over$22 @ 43.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 47.0¢
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?Lost
Yes$11 @ 24.9¢
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?Lost
Yes$6 @ 8.7¢
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?Lost
Yes$9 @ 29.0¢
Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsLost
Yes$9 @ 4.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 49.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?Lost
Yes$26 @ 32.0¢
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Won
No$20 @ 28.0¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.6M Iranian rials on October 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?Won
No$144 @ 96.0¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?Lost
Yes$6 @ 23.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$6 @ 25.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$37 @ 36.9¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$9 @ 8.8¢
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.2¢
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.3¢
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Morocco?Won
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$30 @ 37.5¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$40 @ 56.5¢
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$16 @ 52.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$23 @ 46.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5Lost
Over$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Paycheck to Paycheck" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Lost
No$6 @ 16.0¢
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?Lost
Yes$7 @ 32.5¢
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 25.0¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 France?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$42 @ 68.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$120 @ 85.7¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?Lost
Yes$17 @ 21.0¢
France vs. England: O/U 1.5Won
Over$60 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
No$21 @ 35.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Healthcare" or "Health care" 8+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Lost
No$13 @ 32.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceLost
Colombia$17 @ 55.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?Lost
Yes$82 @ 55.0¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$53 @ 53.0¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
No$74 @ 58.4¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$44 @ 21.1¢
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$12 @ 8.1¢
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
No$33 @ 66.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Percent" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Won
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$58 @ 56.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$253	88.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$84	14.0¢
France vs. England: O/U 4.5	—	Under	$75	75.0¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$69	69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$68	34.0¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$61	27.6¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	—	Yes	$57	56.7¢
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$55	24.9¢
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5	—	Over	$39	77.0¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	—	Brazil	$35	70.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	—	Yes	$30	37.5¢
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	—	Yes	$26	32.0¢
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 1.5	—	Over	$22	43.0¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?	—	Yes	$17	21.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	—	Colombia	$17	55.0¢
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Sports	Yes	$16	52.0¢
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	19.2¢
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	—	Yes	$11	24.9¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	—	Yes	$10	25.0¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?	—	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	—	Yes	$9	29.0¢
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals	—	Yes	$9	4.3¢
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	—	Yes	$8	40.0¢
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$8	9.0¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.6M Iranian rials on October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$8	7.0¢
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?	—	Yes	$8	30.0¢
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran?	—	Yes	$7	16.0¢
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	—	Yes	$7	32.5¢
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?	—	Yes	$6	8.7¢
Will France vs. England end in a draw?	—	Yes	$6	24.0¢

Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
No$253 @ 88.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$84 @ 14.0¢
France vs. England: O/U 4.5—
Under$75 @ 75.0¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$69 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$68 @ 34.0¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$61 @ 27.6¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?—
Yes$57 @ 56.7¢
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$55 @ 24.9¢
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5—
Over$39 @ 77.0¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance—
Brazil$35 @ 70.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?—
Yes$30 @ 37.5¢
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?—
Yes$26 @ 32.0¢
Norway vs. England: Norway O/U 1.5—
Over$22 @ 43.0¢
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?—
Yes$17 @ 21.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance—
Colombia$17 @ 55.0¢
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to ScoreSports
Yes$16 @ 52.0¢
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 19.2¢
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?—
Yes$11 @ 24.9¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?—
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?—
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?—
Yes$9 @ 29.0¢
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals—
Yes$9 @ 4.3¢
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?—
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$8 @ 9.0¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.6M Iranian rials on October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$8 @ 7.0¢
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?—
Yes$8 @ 30.0¢
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran?—
Yes$7 @ 16.0¢
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?—
Yes$7 @ 32.5¢
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?—
Yes$6 @ 8.7¢
Will France vs. England end in a draw?—
Yes$6 @ 24.0¢