0x4158…ce9f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x41583f2efc720b8e2682750fffb67f2806fece9f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

35% @ 30.9¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

5370

Avg size

$81

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (310/805)	+27%	805
Politics	36% (68/188)	+4%	188
Geopolitics	29% (10/35)	-37%	35
Sports	25% (1/4)	+111%	4
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+193%	3
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other805 bets
Hit rate
39% (310/805)
ROI
+27%
Politics188 bets
Hit rate
36% (68/188)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics35 bets
Hit rate
29% (10/35)
ROI
-37%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+111%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+193%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 390/1038

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$182	8.1¢	Lost
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$211	11.3¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$446	12.9¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$40	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thank You" or "Please" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	No	$25	16.2¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?	Yes	$6	3.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$173	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	No	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	Yes	$30	5.5¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?	Yes	$89	16.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$85	58.7¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$532	49.1¢	Won
North Korea missile test by September 15?	Yes	$103	24.4¢	Lost
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?	Yes	$501	56.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$373	14.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	48.8¢	Won
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?	Yes	$19	63.0¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$136	83.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?	No	$1	73.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?	Yes	$324	44.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$281	65.4¢	Won
French election called by October 10?	Yes	$15	5.0¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$33	22.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$300	18.4¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$1.7k	60.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$633	24.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	No	$13	4.7¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	No	$79	61.2¢	Won
Next French confidence vote passes?	No	$55	62.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	Yes	$41	15.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$213	13.2¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$43	7.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$204	34.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?	No	$213	8.1¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$760	10.2¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$925	24.2¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$33	11.1¢	Lost
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?	Yes	$68	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	Yes	$258	40.2¢	Won
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	Yes	$87	10.7¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$224	80.9¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$100	10.8¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$102	51.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$205	20.4¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	Yes	$76	25.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$90	23.3¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$42	4.0¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$767	66.5¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$679	53.6¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	Yes	$296	17.0¢	Lost

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$182 @ 8.1¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$211 @ 11.3¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$446 @ 12.9¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Thank You" or "Please" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Lost
No$25 @ 16.2¢
Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$173 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Lost
No$10 @ 7.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.5¢
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?Lost
Yes$89 @ 16.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 58.7¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$532 @ 49.1¢
North Korea missile test by September 15?Lost
Yes$103 @ 24.4¢
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?Lost
Yes$501 @ 56.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$373 @ 14.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 48.8¢
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?Lost
Yes$19 @ 63.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$136 @ 83.6¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Lost
No$1 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Won
Yes$324 @ 44.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$281 @ 65.4¢
French election called by October 10?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$33 @ 22.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$300 @ 18.4¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 60.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$633 @ 24.0¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Lost
No$13 @ 4.7¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
No$79 @ 61.2¢
Next French confidence vote passes?Won
No$55 @ 62.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Lost
Yes$41 @ 15.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$213 @ 13.2¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$43 @ 7.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$204 @ 34.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Lost
No$213 @ 8.1¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$760 @ 10.2¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$925 @ 24.2¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.1¢
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?Lost
Yes$68 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Won
Yes$258 @ 40.2¢
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?Lost
Yes$87 @ 10.7¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$224 @ 80.9¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.8¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$102 @ 51.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$205 @ 20.4¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Lost
Yes$76 @ 25.3¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$90 @ 23.3¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$42 @ 4.0¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$767 @ 66.5¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$679 @ 53.6¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$296 @ 17.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	48.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$789	19.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$500	13.2¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$400	27.0¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$346	32.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$300	7.7¢
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$270	23.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$243	5.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$200	9.0¢
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$160	15.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$86	64.6¢
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$83	37.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$41	5.9¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 48.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$789 @ 19.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$500 @ 13.2¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$400 @ 27.0¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$346 @ 32.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$300 @ 7.7¢
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$270 @ 23.8¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$243 @ 5.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$200 @ 9.0¢
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$160 @ 15.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?Geopolitics
No$86 @ 64.6¢
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$83 @ 37.5¢
Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$41 @ 5.9¢