0x4158…ce9f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x41583f2efc720b8e2682750fffb67f2806fece9f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.7pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

36% @ 31.4¢

Brier

0.198

Resolved

5623

Avg size

$88

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (329/859)	+23%	859
Politics	35% (92/262)	+10%	262
Geopolitics	27% (13/48)	-38%	48
Sports	29% (2/7)	+109%	7
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+193%	3
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other859 bets
Hit rate
38% (329/859)
ROI
+23%
Politics262 bets
Hit rate
35% (92/262)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics48 bets
Hit rate
27% (13/48)
ROI
-38%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
+109%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+193%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 437/1182

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$182	8.1¢	Lost
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$211	11.3¢	Lost
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	20.9¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$446	12.9¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$40	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thank You" or "Please" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	No	$25	16.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$173	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	No	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	Yes	$30	5.5¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?	Yes	$89	16.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$85	58.7¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$532	49.1¢	Won
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?	Yes	$501	56.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$373	14.1¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	48.8¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$136	83.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?	No	$1	73.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?	Yes	$324	44.8¢	Won
Will Al Carns be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$69	10.8¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$22	33.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$281	65.4¢	Won
French election called by October 10?	Yes	$15	5.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$300	18.4¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$1.7k	60.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$633	24.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	No	$13	4.7¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	No	$79	61.2¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	Yes	$41	15.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$213	13.2¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$43	7.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$204	34.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?	No	$213	8.1¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$760	10.2¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$534	24.7¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$33	11.1¢	Lost
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?	Yes	$68	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	Yes	$258	40.2¢	Won
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	Yes	$87	10.7¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$224	80.9¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$100	10.8¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$102	51.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$205	20.4¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	Yes	$76	25.3¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$90	23.3¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$42	4.0¢	Lost
Paris curfew by October 24?	Yes	$778	50.7¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$767	66.5¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$679	53.6¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	Yes	$296	17.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	56.6¢	Won

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$182 @ 8.1¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$211 @ 11.3¢
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 20.9¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$446 @ 12.9¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Thank You" or "Please" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Lost
No$25 @ 16.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$173 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Lost
No$10 @ 7.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.5¢
Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?Lost
Yes$89 @ 16.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 58.7¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$532 @ 49.1¢
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?Lost
Yes$501 @ 56.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$373 @ 14.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 48.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$136 @ 83.6¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Lost
No$1 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Won
Yes$324 @ 44.8¢
Will Al Carns be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$69 @ 10.8¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 33.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$281 @ 65.4¢
French election called by October 10?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$300 @ 18.4¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 60.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$633 @ 24.0¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Lost
No$13 @ 4.7¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
No$79 @ 61.2¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Lost
Yes$41 @ 15.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$213 @ 13.2¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$43 @ 7.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$204 @ 34.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Lost
No$213 @ 8.1¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$760 @ 10.2¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$534 @ 24.7¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.1¢
20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?Lost
Yes$68 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Won
Yes$258 @ 40.2¢
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?Lost
Yes$87 @ 10.7¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$224 @ 80.9¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.8¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$102 @ 51.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$205 @ 20.4¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Lost
Yes$76 @ 25.3¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$90 @ 23.3¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$42 @ 4.0¢
Paris curfew by October 24?Won
Yes$778 @ 50.7¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$767 @ 66.5¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$679 @ 53.6¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$296 @ 17.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 56.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	43.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.3k	52.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$971	53.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$500	32.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$500	24.6¢
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$400	47.5¢
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	Politics	No	$376	48.9¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$312	49.2¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$278	44.9¢
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$270	23.8¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by November 30?	Politics	No	$237	50.3¢
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$147	15.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 43.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1.3k @ 52.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$971 @ 53.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$500 @ 32.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$500 @ 24.6¢
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$400 @ 47.5¢
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?Politics
No$376 @ 48.9¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Politics
Yes$312 @ 49.2¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?Politics
Yes$278 @ 44.9¢
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$270 @ 23.8¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by November 30?Politics
No$237 @ 50.3¢
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$147 @ 15.0¢