0x407d…1bae

Specialization by sphere

• Other64 bets

  Hit rate

  47% (30/64)

  ROI

  +6%

• Politics58 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (32/58)

  ROI

  +45%

• Sports14 bets

  Hit rate

  21% (3/14)

  ROI

  +68%

• Geopolitics9 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (5/9)

  ROI

  -55%

• Crypto9 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (4/9)

  ROI

  +32%

• Tech4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +10%

• Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
  No$2.7k @ 91.0¢
• Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Won
  No$625 @ 62.5¢
• Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026?Lost
  Yes$233 @ 17.9¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 48.6¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$2.9k @ 48.6¢
• Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
  Arizona Wildcats$20 @ 0.1¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$744 @ 66.7¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 8.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$7.8k @ 74.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$22.7k @ 20.6¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
  Yes$606 @ 18.4¢
• Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 60.0¢
• Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
  Yes$474 @ 20.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$2.5k @ 84.3¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3.1k @ 16.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$1.5k @ 75.9¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
  Yes$300 @ 10.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$1.5k @ 75.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.1k @ 20.6¢
• Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 82.3¢
• Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
  Yes$128 @ 64.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$3.3k @ 53.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
  Yes$128 @ 6.4¢
• Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?Lost
  No$3 @ 0.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
  Yes$269 @ 27.8¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
  Yes$320 @ 15.2¢
• Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$550 @ 1.1¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.1k @ 78.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$6.0k @ 15.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
  No$947 @ 83.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 23.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$5.1k @ 27.7¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$7.7k @ 33.1¢
• Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$2.5k @ 3.1¢
• Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
  Connecticut Huskies$11 @ 27.0¢
• Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
  Yes$588 @ 11.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3.1k @ 20.7¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
  No$554 @ 61.6¢
• Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?Lost
  No$397 @ 18.6¢
• Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
  No$1.9k @ 73.7¢
• Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
  No$438 @ 47.5¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
  Yes$14 @ 0.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$5.1k @ 64.4¢
• MegaETH FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
  No$25 @ 21.8¢
• Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$1.6k @ 8.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$14.9k @ 74.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$2.8k @ 55.0¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 23.0¢
• Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Won
  No$710 @ 70.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Won
  No$4.1k @ 81.1¢

Current positions

• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$20.0k @ 50.0¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  No$20.0k @ 50.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$4.6k @ 93.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$4.0k @ 80.4¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$3.0k @ 59.5¢
• Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
  No$1.2k @ 19.4¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.1k @ 17.9¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 34.3¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$710 @ 14.2¢
• Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tech
  Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
• Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$255 @ 2.5¢
• Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Politics
  Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
• Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?Tech
  Yes$35 @ 9.0¢
• Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?Politics
  Yes$15 @ 38.5¢
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?Politics
  No$10 @ 52.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 60.0¢