0x4079…7126

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x407910fd97c4f85179579e5d6c6196f1a1d27126
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

40% @ 36.2¢

Brier

0.178

Resolved

1453

Avg size

$21

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (81/289)	-1%	289
Politics	46% (44/96)	-10%	96
Geopolitics	66% (27/41)	+12%	41
Sports	28% (8/29)	+25%	29
Science	42% (11/26)	-9%	26
Tech	65% (13/20)	+8%	20
Crypto	0% (0/17)	-100%	17
Economy	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	100% (1/1)	+66%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+16%	1

Other289 bets
Hit rate
28% (81/289)
ROI
-1%
Politics96 bets
Hit rate
46% (44/96)
ROI
-10%
Geopolitics41 bets
Hit rate
66% (27/41)
ROI
+12%
Sports29 bets
Hit rate
28% (8/29)
ROI
+25%
Science26 bets
Hit rate
42% (11/26)
ROI
-9%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
65% (13/20)
ROI
+8%
Crypto17 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/17)
ROI
-100%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+66%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+16%

Track record

36% hit · 186/523

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 7?	Yes	$26	66.0¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs	T1	$100	92.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 15?	Yes	$57	78.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on September 12?	No	$21	80.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	$25	90.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of September 7 2026?	No	$23	83.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of September 7 2026?	No	$63	29.8¢	Lost
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?	No	$195	48.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	$25	30.4¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	$25	66.0¢	Lost
Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	No	$152	30.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	No	$112	34.8¢	Lost
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?	No	$20	28.0¢	Lost
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	Yes	$61	71.4¢	Lost
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on August 26?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	$89	64.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on August 26?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 18?	Yes	$1	37.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 23?	No	$3	27.0¢	Lost
Rockstar confirms GTA VI gameplay leaked?	No	$33	55.0¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$35	69.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on August 17?	No	$10	88.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	$5	26.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	$74	74.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 16?	No	$9	45.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	$5	35.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	$5	50.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	$10	93.5¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	$5	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$99	58.0¢	Won
Will XRP reach $1.60 in August?	No	$16	81.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	$38	63.5¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 4?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	$5	14.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 23?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 21?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?	No	$56	56.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C or higher on July 21?	No	$18	59.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 27?	Yes	$55	68.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 23?	No	$46	38.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?	Yes	$7	68.0¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 24?	No	$12	75.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 16?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?	No	$60	42.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 15?	Yes	$0	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 15?	No	$57	57.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 17?	No	$88	69.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?	No	$119	66.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 15?	No	$130	65.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 7?Lost
Yes$26 @ 66.0¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds PlayoffsWon
T1$100 @ 92.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 15?Lost
Yes$57 @ 78.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on September 12?Lost
No$21 @ 80.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ETLost
Down$25 @ 90.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ETLost
Down$5 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of September 7 2026?Lost
No$23 @ 83.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of September 7 2026?Lost
No$63 @ 29.8¢
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?Lost
No$195 @ 48.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ETLost
Up$25 @ 30.4¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ETLost
Down$25 @ 66.0¢
Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$152 @ 30.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?Lost
No$112 @ 34.8¢
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 28.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$61 @ 71.4¢
Will it rain in Chicago, IL on August 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?Lost
No$89 @ 64.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on August 26?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 37.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 23?Lost
No$3 @ 27.0¢
Rockstar confirms GTA VI gameplay leaked?Lost
No$33 @ 55.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$35 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on August 17?Lost
No$10 @ 88.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 26.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 14?Lost
Yes$74 @ 74.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 16?Lost
No$9 @ 45.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 35.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ETLost
Up$5 @ 50.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ETLost
Up$10 @ 93.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETLost
Up$5 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$99 @ 58.0¢
Will XRP reach $1.60 in August?Lost
No$16 @ 81.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Lost
No$38 @ 63.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 4?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETLost
Down$5 @ 14.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 23?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?Lost
No$56 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 44°C or higher on July 21?Lost
No$18 @ 59.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 27?Lost
Yes$55 @ 68.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 23?Lost
No$46 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 27?Lost
Yes$7 @ 68.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 24?Lost
No$12 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 16?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 16?Lost
No$60 @ 42.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 15?Lost
No$57 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 17?Lost
No$88 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?Lost
No$119 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 15?Lost
No$130 @ 65.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 22?	—	Yes	$204	17.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$202	77.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	No	$196	32.7¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$195	43.9¢
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?	—	No	$195	48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 12?	—	No	$193	58.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 9?	—	Yes	$185	83.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Politics	No	$183	85.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?	—	No	$178	89.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$171	1.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26?	—	Yes	$163	31.0¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?	Politics	No	$161	24.3¢
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$160	1.0¢
Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$152	30.4¢
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$150	1.3¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$141	65.8¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$138	6.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$137	16.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 15?	—	No	$130	65.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?	—	Yes	$128	65.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$121	60.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?	Politics	No	$120	30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?	—	No	$119	66.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	—	Yes	$113	1.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?	Other	No	$112	34.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	—	No	$107	41.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$104	52.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Politics	No	$102	17.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	Politics	No	$102	33.9¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Sports	No	$100	47.0¢

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 22?—
Yes$204 @ 17.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$202 @ 77.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
No$196 @ 32.7¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$195 @ 43.9¢
Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?—
No$195 @ 48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 12?—
No$193 @ 58.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 9?—
Yes$185 @ 83.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Politics
No$183 @ 85.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?—
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$171 @ 1.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26?—
Yes$163 @ 31.0¢
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?Politics
No$161 @ 24.3¢
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$160 @ 1.0¢
Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?—
No$152 @ 30.4¢
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$150 @ 1.3¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Geopolitics
No$141 @ 65.8¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$138 @ 6.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$137 @ 16.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 15?—
No$130 @ 65.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?—
Yes$128 @ 65.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$121 @ 60.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?Politics
No$120 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 16?—
No$119 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?—
Yes$113 @ 1.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?Other
No$112 @ 34.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?—
No$107 @ 41.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$104 @ 52.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics
No$102 @ 17.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?Politics
No$102 @ 33.9¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?Sports
No$100 @ 47.0¢