0x4079…7126

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x407910fd97c4f85179579e5d6c6196f1a1d27126
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

46% @ 39.9¢

Brier

0.191

Resolved

757

Avg size

$25

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (34/75)	+25%	75
Politics	51% (28/55)	-17%	55
Sports	26% (7/27)	+26%	27
Geopolitics	77% (10/13)	+33%	13
Tech	58% (7/12)	+2%	12
Science	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+66%	1

Other75 bets
Hit rate
45% (34/75)
ROI
+25%
Politics55 bets
Hit rate
51% (28/55)
ROI
-17%
Sports27 bets
Hit rate
26% (7/27)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
77% (10/13)
ROI
+33%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
+2%
Science4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+66%

Track record

46% hit · 87/190

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	$94	31.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2?	Yes	$12	3.1¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$173	1.9¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$107	41.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026?	No	$30	10.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$30	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$168	42.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$178	57.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$53	60.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$29	47.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	76.4¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$100	65.0¢	Won
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$20	29.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$140	6.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 13, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$74	60.3¢	Won
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Under	$70	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 13?	No	$112	89.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$35	69.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 2?	Yes	$120	64.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$213	27.3¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier	Hanwha Life Esports	$15	73.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	No	$15	32.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$20	9.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$98	65.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	No	$32	30.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$243	81.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$105	85.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$136	80.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?	No	$65	64.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$103	10.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$124	1.9¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$370	73.4¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 20, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	$38	38.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	No	$78	85.5¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$84	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$77	34.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?	No	$47	46.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 17?	No	$74	73.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 27, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$118	59.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	$62	62.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 19?	No	$65	53.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?	No	$4	66.0¢	Won

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$94 @ 31.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.1¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$173 @ 1.9¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$107 @ 41.3¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 10.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$30 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$168 @ 42.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$178 @ 57.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$53 @ 60.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$29 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 76.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$100 @ 65.0¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$20 @ 29.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$140 @ 6.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$74 @ 60.3¢
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Won
Under$70 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 13?Won
No$112 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 69.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 2?Won
Yes$120 @ 64.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$213 @ 27.3¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance QualifierWon
Hanwha Life Esports$15 @ 73.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$15 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 9.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$98 @ 65.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Lost
No$32 @ 30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$243 @ 81.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$105 @ 85.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$136 @ 80.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 18?Lost
No$65 @ 64.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$103 @ 10.0¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$124 @ 1.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$370 @ 73.4¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?Lost
No$38 @ 38.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Won
No$78 @ 85.5¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$84 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$77 @ 34.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 19?Lost
No$47 @ 46.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 17?Lost
No$74 @ 73.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$118 @ 59.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?Lost
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 19?Lost
No$65 @ 53.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?Won
No$4 @ 66.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$262	81.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$100	49.8¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$49	31.2¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$45	75.0¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Tech	No	$17	42.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?	Politics	Yes	$16	19.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$8	84.0¢

Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026?Geopolitics
No$262 @ 81.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$100 @ 49.8¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$49 @ 31.2¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$45 @ 75.0¢
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Tech
No$17 @ 42.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?Politics
Yes$16 @ 19.0¢
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?Geopolitics
No$8 @ 84.0¢