0x403f…b886

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x403f61717a77aa61320177cd991c3aa88576b886
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.8pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

56% @ 45.5¢

Brier

0.099

Resolved

103

Avg size

$412

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	22% (5/23)	+416%	23
Politics	27% (4/15)	+22%	15
Crypto	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	-79%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other23 bets
Hit rate
22% (5/23)
ROI
+416%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
27% (4/15)
ROI
+22%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-79%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

22% hit · 10/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 22?	Yes	$16	8.4¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 on September 8?	Yes	$3	0.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?	Yes	$9	18.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?	Yes	$29	1.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9	0.2¢	Lost
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?	Yes	$5	0.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$27	7.4¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$5	81.3¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$41.0k	81.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?	Yes	$10	3.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 10?	Yes	$4	17.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?	Yes	$12	5.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	Yes	$98	27.2¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 19?	Yes	$116	4.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3	0.7¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$43	11.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Yes	$10	46.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above 64,000 on July 12, 4AM ET?	Yes	$8	18.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?	Yes	$13	15.8¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	Yes	$2	47.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 25?	Yes	$176	81.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$24	2.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on July 17?	Yes	$3	0.4¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$197	31.3¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 19?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$184	5.6¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	73.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8	1.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?	Yes	$19	37.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?	Yes	$189	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Yes	$19	64.0¢	Won
Trump out as President by July 31?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 21?	Yes	$21	52.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	$3	0.9¢	Lost
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	$3	0.9¢	Lost
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	$3	1.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	Yes	$8	14.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$24	86.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 22?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 on September 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Lost
Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?Lost
Yes$29 @ 1.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.2¢
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$27 @ 7.4¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 81.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$41.0k @ 81.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 10?Lost
Yes$4 @ 17.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by September 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 5.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Won
Yes$98 @ 27.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 19?Lost
Yes$116 @ 4.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.7¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$43 @ 11.5¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
Bitcoin above 64,000 on July 12, 4AM ET?Lost
Yes$8 @ 18.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?Won
Yes$13 @ 15.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Won
Yes$2 @ 47.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 25?Lost
Yes$176 @ 81.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 2.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on July 17?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$197 @ 31.3¢
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 19?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
Yes$184 @ 5.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$10 @ 73.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?Lost
Yes$19 @ 37.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?Lost
Yes$189 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Won
Yes$19 @ 64.0¢
Trump out as President by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 21?Lost
Yes$21 @ 52.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?Lost
Yes$8 @ 14.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$24 @ 86.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$161	56.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$89	16.6¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$77	82.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$65	1.1¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$49	86.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$19	80.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$13	63.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$10	91.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	14.4¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$9	20.4¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$8	29.0¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	4.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	27.3¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$5	27.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	Yes	$5	2.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5	19.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.3¢

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$161 @ 56.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$89 @ 16.6¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$77 @ 82.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$65 @ 1.1¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$49 @ 86.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$19 @ 80.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$13 @ 63.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$10 @ 91.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 14.4¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 20.4¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$8 @ 29.0¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 4.5¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 27.3¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5 @ 19.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢