0x3f41…9979

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other33 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (16/33)

  ROI

  +36%

• Science31 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (15/31)

  ROI

  +52%

• Politics20 bets

  Hit rate

  35% (7/20)

  ROI

  -73%

• Geopolitics13 bets

  Hit rate

  23% (3/13)

  ROI

  -77%

• Tech4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +15%

• Culture2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +12%

• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Lost
  No$894 @ 72.0¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  No$11 @ 37.3¢
• Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q2 Data Center revenue be above $6B?Won
  Yes$20 @ 89.9¢
• Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
  Yes$620 @ 31.5¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 11, 2026?Won
  No$32 @ 72.1¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 11, 2026?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 32.6¢
• OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Lost
  No$92 @ 22.4¢
• Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September?Won
  No$434 @ 73.3¢
• Will Seattle have less than 1 inch of precipitation in September?Lost
  Yes$293 @ 26.1¢
• Will JD Vance say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during his rally in North Carolina?Won
  No$8 @ 16.0¢
• Will JD Vance say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during his rally in North Carolina?Lost
  Yes$27 @ 48.9¢
• Will Hong Kong have less than 275mm of precipitation in September?Lost
  No$250 @ 33.5¢
• Will Hong Kong have less than 275mm of precipitation in September?Won
  Yes$1.6k @ 45.4¢
• Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
  No$384 @ 68.3¢
• Will Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in September?Won
  Yes$625 @ 34.7¢
• OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?Won
  Yes$458 @ 77.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Won
  Yes$25 @ 80.0¢
• Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?Won
  Yes$15 @ 74.0¢
• Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in September?Won
  No$43 @ 78.0¢
• Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
  Yes$489 @ 28.7¢
• Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 12, 2026?Won
  Yes$0 @ 6.0¢
• Tropical Storm Fay strengthens to a hurricane?Won
  No$28 @ 54.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
  Yes$1.0k @ 67.2¢
• Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24?Won
  Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 26.5¢
• Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
  Yes$65 @ 67.0¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 24, 2026?Lost
  Yes$14 @ 25.0¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$52 @ 30.0¢
• Will Stompgoat & Mingo Win the Jynxzi Fortnite Tournament?Won
  No$73 @ 60.7¢
• Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in August?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
• Will Hong Kong have 700mm or more of precipitation in August?Won
  No$20 @ 38.4¢
• Will Seoul have between 75-100mm of precipitation in September?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
• Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 0.9¢
• Will the earnings call not air?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
• Will London have between 60-70mm of precipitation in September?Won
  No$401 @ 82.9¢
• Will Hong Kong have between 500-525mm of precipitation in August?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
• Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
  Yes$147 @ 13.4¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$18 @ 25.0¢
• Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?Lost
  No$9 @ 36.9¢
• Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?Won
  Yes$26 @ 61.5¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$128 @ 27.0¢
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
  Yes$42 @ 43.0¢
• Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 8, 2026?Won
  Yes$31 @ 56.3¢
• Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony?Won
  No$181 @ 86.0¢
• Will MrBeast hit 140.5 billion views by September 30?Won
  Yes$8 @ 89.0¢
• Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September?Won
  No$39 @ 74.0¢
• Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in September?Lost
  Yes$546 @ 26.3¢
• Will Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in August?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 1.0¢

Current positions

• Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October?Science
  Yes$821 @ 54.2¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Culture
  No$622 @ 43.3¢
• Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?Tech
  Yes$421 @ 26.1¢
• Will Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October?Science
  No$342 @ 74.3¢
• Will Seoul have between 30-40mm of precipitation in October?Science
  No$262 @ 73.0¢
• Will Seattle have more than 6 inches of precipitation in October?Science
  No$230 @ 81.6¢
• Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?Science
  Yes$150 @ 60.3¢
• Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Politics
  Yes$120 @ 61.5¢
• SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?Tech
  No$66 @ 55.5¢
• Will London have 110mm or more of precipitation in October?Science
  No$48 @ 87.6¢
• Will NYC have more than 6.25 inches of precipitation in October?Science
  No$47 @ 92.0¢
• Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Tech
  No$11 @ 52.0¢
• Will London have between 35-45mm of precipitation in October?Science
  Yes$8 @ 8.4¢
• Will London have between 85-110mm of precipitation in October?Science
  Yes$6 @ 9.3¢
• Will Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 44.0¢
• Will Seoul have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?Science
  Yes$1 @ 5.7¢
• Will Chen Kai-huang win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?Politics
  Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
• Will Seoul have between 40-50mm of precipitation in October?Science
  Yes$0 @ 1.0¢