0x3eae…5e6d

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics40 bets

  Hit rate

  70% (28/40)

  ROI

  +14%

• Other27 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (15/27)

  ROI

  -11%

• Geopolitics7 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (7/7)

  ROI

  +18%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +19%

• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Won
  Yes$86 @ 86.0¢
• Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
  Yes$137 @ 42.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$752 @ 68.4¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$181 @ 81.0¢
• Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
  Yes$117 @ 78.0¢
• Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
  No$545 @ 44.0¢
• Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$19 @ 4.2¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$81 @ 81.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$662 @ 77.8¢
• FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Won
  Yes$139 @ 60.3¢
• Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings?Won
  No$589 @ 74.2¢
• Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  Yes$43 @ 56.2¢
• Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses?Won
  No$85 @ 77.0¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$198 @ 85.6¢
• Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 58.2¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$386 @ 87.0¢
• Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
  Yes$2.3k @ 86.1¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$473 @ 79.0¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.2k @ 87.7¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Won
  Yes$530 @ 86.7¢
• Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  Yes$688 @ 76.5¢
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
  Yes$1.0k @ 83.4¢
• Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
  No$712 @ 78.4¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
  Yes$133 @ 3.0¢
• Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Won
  Yes$280 @ 70.0¢
• Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?Lost
  Yes$26 @ 25.0¢
• Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$140 @ 7.0¢
• Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
  Yes$73 @ 80.0¢
• Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?Won
  Yes$168 @ 84.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$178 @ 40.0¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$82 @ 41.0¢
• Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?Won
  No$1.1k @ 73.4¢
• Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
  No$483 @ 47.5¢
• Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
  No$434 @ 84.4¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$57 @ 11.0¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$273 @ 83.0¢
• Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Won
  Yes$364 @ 81.0¢
• Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$297 @ 89.2¢
• US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?Lost
  Yes$64 @ 43.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
  Yes$727 @ 85.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$164 @ 81.9¢
• Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 2.9¢
• Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Won
  No$929 @ 80.5¢
• Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
  Yes$947 @ 64.3¢
• Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?Won
  Yes$134 @ 67.6¢
• Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Won
  No$297 @ 81.1¢
• Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?Won
  Yes$25 @ 87.0¢
• Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?Lost
  No$94 @ 47.0¢
• Will Leavitt say "ICE" during the next White House press briefing?Lost
  Yes$66 @ 33.0¢
• Will Leavitt say "Commander" during the next White House press briefing?Lost
  Yes$99 @ 67.5¢

Current positions

• Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$9.6k @ 92.5¢
• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$7.1k @ 97.5¢
• Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$5.0k @ 96.8¢
• Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
  No$3.4k @ 89.8¢
• US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
  No$2.7k @ 94.3¢
• Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?—
  No$2.0k @ 96.3¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$1.8k @ 88.7¢
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 79.6¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 93.2¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 87.1¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.0k @ 90.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
  No$962 @ 96.2¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$550 @ 55.0¢
• Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
  Yes$331 @ 75.4¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$326 @ 17.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$266 @ 86.4¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?—
  No$264 @ 66.0¢
• Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
  No$228 @ 91.0¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$220 @ 44.0¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$207 @ 30.0¢
• Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$140 @ 42.2¢
• Will the Republican Party win the SC-06 House seat?Politics
  Yes$125 @ 59.1¢
• Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  Yes$124 @ 3.4¢
• Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$106 @ 33.0¢
• Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?Politics
  No$103 @ 65.0¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$82 @ 4.1¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$77 @ 33.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  No$67 @ 67.4¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Politics
  Yes$66 @ 24.0¢
• Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$59 @ 0.9¢