0x3e82…17c7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3e82ee576fc88f620ac88006cc736f254d1b17c7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

81% @ 76.5¢

Brier

0.106

Resolved

456

Avg size

$166

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	85% (46/54)	+9%	54
Politics	87% (20/23)	-10%	23

Other54 bets
Hit rate
85% (46/54)
ROI
+9%
Politics23 bets
Hit rate
87% (20/23)
ROI
-10%

Track record

86% hit · 66/77

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	$1.0k	92.0¢	Won
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	$3.3k	94.3¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	$1.4k	96.4¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	$337	99.5¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September?	No	$990	99.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?	No	$119	98.3¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$192	87.4¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$880	88.0¢	Won
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$1.1k	66.4¢	Won
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Over	$548	73.0¢	Won
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3)	T1	$1.2k	87.7¢	Won
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3)	Gen.G	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	Yes	$1.2k	78.3¢	Won
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?	No	$1.8k	88.9¢	Won
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?	No	$906	85.8¢	Lost
Venezuela Parlay	No	$1.4k	85.9¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?	Yes	$725	60.1¢	Won
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Gen.G	$176	88.0¢	Lost
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?	No	$2.5k	88.3¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	No	$1.3k	87.0¢	Won
Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$1.8k	89.1¢	Won
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$17	86.0¢	Won
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?	Yes	$4.3k	86.5¢	Won
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$36	89.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$2.1k	86.0¢	Won
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?	No	$1.6k	74.4¢	Won
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Yes	$990	69.0¢	Won
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Anyones Legend	$1.6k	88.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$198	87.6¢	Won
Will between 215 and 216 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?	No	$340	85.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?	No	$1.0k	85.6¢	Won
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30	No	$5	84.0¢	Won
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1)	Hanwha Life Esports	$173	86.5¢	Won
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	$514	86.4¢	Won
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Yes	$17	58.0¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B	Gen.G	$1.5k	88.3¢	Won
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Bilibili Gaming	$418	86.2¢	Won
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?	Yes	$269	89.0¢	Won
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1.8k	87.9¢	Won
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?	Yes	$1.9k	87.9¢	Won
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?	No	$211	71.7¢	Won
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5)	T1	$79	79.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.5k	75.6¢	Won
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$2.4k	83.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	No	$619	74.4¢	Won
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$2.2k	69.3¢	Won
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$455	81.0¢	Lost
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?	No	$2.8k	77.5¢	Won

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 92.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
No$3.3k @ 94.3¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 96.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Won
No$337 @ 99.5¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September?Won
No$990 @ 99.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?Won
No$119 @ 98.3¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$192 @ 87.4¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
Yes$880 @ 88.0¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$1.1k @ 66.4¢
Games Total: O/U 3.5Won
Over$548 @ 73.0¢
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3)Won
T1$1.2k @ 87.7¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3)Won
Gen.G$77 @ 77.0¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 78.3¢
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 88.9¢
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?Lost
No$906 @ 85.8¢
Venezuela ParlayWon
No$1.4k @ 85.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?Won
Yes$725 @ 60.1¢
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)Lost
Gen.G$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?Won
No$2.5k @ 88.3¢
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Won
No$1.3k @ 87.0¢
Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 89.1¢
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 86.5¢
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$36 @ 89.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$2.1k @ 86.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Won
No$1.6k @ 74.4¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Won
Yes$990 @ 69.0¢
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsWon
Anyones Legend$1.6k @ 88.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$198 @ 87.6¢
Will between 215 and 216 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?Won
No$340 @ 85.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 85.6¢
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30Won
No$5 @ 84.0¢
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1)Won
Hanwha Life Esports$173 @ 86.5¢
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsWon
Bilibili Gaming$514 @ 86.4¢
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 58.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group BWon
Gen.G$1.5k @ 88.3¢
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsWon
Bilibili Gaming$418 @ 86.2¢
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?Won
Yes$269 @ 89.0¢
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 87.9¢
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 87.9¢
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?Won
No$211 @ 71.7¢
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5)Won
T1$79 @ 79.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 75.6¢
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 83.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?Won
No$619 @ 74.4¢
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 69.3¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$455 @ 81.0¢
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?Won
No$2.8k @ 77.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?	Politics	No	$2.2k	99.2¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$2.1k	96.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	99.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	99.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?	Politics	No	$395	95.9¢

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?Politics
No$2.2k @ 99.2¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$2.1k @ 96.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 99.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 99.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?Politics
No$395 @ 95.9¢