0x3e71…f97b

Specialization by sphere

• Politics24 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (14/24)

  ROI

  +63%

• Sports16 bets

  Hit rate

  25% (4/16)

  ROI

  -35%

• Tech6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  +3%

• Other5 bets

  Hit rate

  20% (1/5)

  ROI

  +49%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +769%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +19%

• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$255 @ 8.5¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?Won
  Yes$366 @ 73.2¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$14 @ 59.0¢
• Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?Won
  Yes$32 @ 10.7¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
  No$348 @ 87.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$40 @ 4.0¢
• Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
  No$819 @ 17.6¢
• Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Won
  Yes$400 @ 38.0¢
• Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
  Yes$405 @ 56.0¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
  No$4.0k @ 84.0¢
• Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit?Won
  Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
• Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$169 @ 24.0¢
• Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$299 @ 30.0¢
• Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
  Yes$264 @ 88.0¢
• Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
  No$261 @ 87.0¢
• Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
  Yes$47 @ 23.6¢
• Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$440 @ 88.0¢
• Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$102 @ 20.0¢
• Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$87 @ 17.0¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Lost
  No$320 @ 32.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$260 @ 70.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$295 @ 59.0¢
• Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$66 @ 22.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$378 @ 54.0¢
• Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
  No$219 @ 73.0¢
• Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$142 @ 27.0¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$986 @ 75.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$125 @ 25.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$400 @ 63.0¢
• Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
  No$300 @ 85.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?Won
  No$1.2k @ 82.9¢
• Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
• Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?Lost
  Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
• Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
  Yes$100 @ 48.0¢
• Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  Yes$29 @ 19.0¢
• Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
  Yes$229 @ 43.0¢
• Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 5.6¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$443 @ 88.0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$370 @ 73.9¢
• Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$92 @ 30.0¢
• Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 7.2¢
• Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?Won
  Yes$128 @ 11.0¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$632 @ 79.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$95 @ 18.9¢
• Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  No$410 @ 35.0¢
• Will Europe win the 2026 Laver Cup?Won
  Yes$13 @ 65.0¢
• Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?Lost
  No$400 @ 42.0¢
• Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Won
  No$80 @ 80.0¢
• Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 6.0¢

Current positions

• Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Tech
  No$465 @ 93.0¢
• Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Politics
  Yes$435 @ 80.0¢
• Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  Yes$400 @ 23.2¢
• Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$376 @ 94.1¢
• Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$376 @ 93.9¢
• Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
  Yes$372 @ 62.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$368 @ 92.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$355 @ 71.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$350 @ 70.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$288 @ 72.0¢
• Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$284 @ 71.0¢
• Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
  Yes$273 @ 54.6¢
• Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
  Yes$232 @ 58.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$216 @ 54.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$204 @ 34.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$187 @ 92.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$180 @ 45.0¢
• Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$180 @ 39.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$161 @ 35.0¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$158 @ 15.8¢
• Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$154 @ 77.0¢
• Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Politics
  No$140 @ 28.0¢
• Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Politics
  Yes$136 @ 34.0¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$129 @ 43.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$124 @ 31.0¢
• Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  No$114 @ 76.0¢
• Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$108 @ 27.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$105 @ 21.0¢
• Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Geopolitics
  Yes$80 @ 10.0¢