0x3d01…ccfb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3d0175c94f0f3079286d586a2881faf7a06eccfb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.1pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

74% @ 56.4¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

174

Avg size

$36

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	67% (34/51)	+22%	51
Politics	71% (12/17)	+19%	17
Geopolitics	50% (4/8)	-26%	8
Sports	60% (3/5)	+102%	5
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+24%	3
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other51 bets
Hit rate
67% (34/51)
ROI
+22%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
71% (12/17)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-26%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+102%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+24%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

66% hit · 56/85

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$76	60.0¢	Won
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$154	47.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$76	20.8¢	Lost
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)	Trail Blazers	$5	51.0¢	Won
Getafe CF vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Under	$70	77.7¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$183	78.7¢	Won
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)	Knicks	$9	51.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5	Over	$32	52.0¢	Won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals	New York Mets	$25	47.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$52	17.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$25	84.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	Yes	$78	81.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$25	67.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$75	30.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$62	18.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$60	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$84	27.0¢	Lost
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)	Team Falcons	$101	38.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner	MOUZ	$25	51.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$141	85.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$25	68.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$25	83.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$89	61.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$478	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	41.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$250	83.5¢	Won
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)	Heat	$5	51.0¢	Won
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Knicks	$104	66.4¢	Won
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings	Lucknow Super Giants	$102	45.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$129	57.4¢	Won
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5	Under	$43	63.0¢	Lost
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Colombia	$25	61.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	$200	82.6¢	Won
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$25	53.0¢	Lost
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	$76	74.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	No	$25	86.0¢	Won
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)	Aston Villa FC	$76	46.0¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$26	43.0¢	Lost
Will Leverkusen win DFB-Pokal?	No	$8	89.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$46	14.0¢	Won
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet	Roberto Bautista Agut	$17	50.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$65	86.7¢	Won
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	$25	41.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	$202	70.0¢	Won
Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty	Connecticut Sun	$26	17.0¢	Lost
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Uruguay	$25	39.0¢	Lost
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels	Minnesota Twins	$71	66.6¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$50	76.0¢	Won
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5	Under	$41	81.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?	No	$25	88.0¢	Won

Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$76 @ 60.0¢
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Lost
Yes$154 @ 47.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 20.8¢
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)Won
Trail Blazers$5 @ 51.0¢
Getafe CF vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Won
Under$70 @ 77.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$183 @ 78.7¢
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Lost
Knicks$9 @ 51.0¢
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Won
Over$32 @ 52.0¢
New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsWon
New York Mets$25 @ 47.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$52 @ 17.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 84.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?Won
Yes$78 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$25 @ 67.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$75 @ 30.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$62 @ 18.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$84 @ 27.0¢
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)Won
Team Falcons$101 @ 38.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerLost
MOUZ$25 @ 51.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$141 @ 85.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$25 @ 68.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$25 @ 83.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$89 @ 61.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$478 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 41.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$250 @ 83.5¢
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)Won
Heat$5 @ 51.0¢
Cavaliers vs. KnicksWon
Knicks$104 @ 66.4¢
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab KingsLost
Lucknow Super Giants$102 @ 45.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$129 @ 57.4¢
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5Lost
Under$43 @ 63.0¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceLost
Colombia$25 @ 61.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
Yes$200 @ 82.6¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$25 @ 53.0¢
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
Yes$76 @ 74.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Won
No$25 @ 86.0¢
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Won
Aston Villa FC$76 @ 46.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 43.0¢
Will Leverkusen win DFB-Pokal?Won
No$8 @ 89.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$46 @ 14.0¢
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan DroguetLost
Roberto Bautista Agut$17 @ 50.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$65 @ 86.7¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsLost
St. Louis Cardinals$25 @ 41.0¢
Spurs vs. ThunderWon
Thunder$202 @ 70.0¢
Connecticut Sun vs. New York LibertyLost
Connecticut Sun$26 @ 17.0¢
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)Lost
Uruguay$25 @ 39.0¢
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles AngelsWon
Minnesota Twins$71 @ 66.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 76.0¢
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Won
Under$41 @ 81.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Won
No$25 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$54	88.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	No	$27	82.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$26	54.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$25	40.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	36.4¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$3	80.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3	85.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	91.0¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$54 @ 88.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
No$27 @ 82.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$26 @ 54.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$25 @ 40.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 36.4¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$3 @ 80.4¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$3 @ 85.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 91.0¢