0x3c91…9af7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3c918a8ef8c379304f744592120cbb4d76149af7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-2.2pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

36% @ 38.0¢

Brier

0.083

Resolved

4251

Avg size

$450

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (79/137)	+5%	137
Politics	82% (9/11)	+25%	11
Sports	43% (3/7)	-79%	7
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+17%	3

Other137 bets
Hit rate
58% (79/137)
ROI
+5%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
82% (9/11)
ROI
+25%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-79%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+17%

Track record

59% hit · 94/158

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?	No	$1.6k	80.0¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$123.8k	82.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$2.4k	80.5¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$135	89.7¢	Won
Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?	No	$255	85.0¢	Won
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner	Alcaraz	$880	29.3¢	Won
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Raducanu (W)	Sabalenka	$24	71.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?	No	$3.5k	11.3¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$10.6k	81.2¢	Won
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?	No	$2.9k	49.0¢	Lost
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?	Yes	$16.0k	84.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$130	86.6¢	Won
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?	No	$430	86.0¢	Won
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open?	Yes	$280	35.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$28.2k	86.6¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$37.0k	88.0¢	Won
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$194	0.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	Yes	$480	12.0¢	Won
Will Trump remove tariff on China before March?	No	$504	84.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$99.7k	89.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$2.2k	73.3¢	Won
NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks (To Advance)	Knicks	$2.8k	80.1¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.9k	0.8¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$365	30.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$3.6k	83.2¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin before February?	No	$2.1k	10.5¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	$169	89.0¢	Won
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	$1.0k	86.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$970	10.5¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Broncos	Patriots	$960	64.0¢	Won
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$130	13.0¢	Lost
Texans vs. Patriots	Patriots	$52	51.6¢	Won
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense?	Yes	$269	26.9¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April?	No	$1.7k	82.5¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$116.1k	84.1¢	Won
French Open: Musetti vs. Alcaraz	Alcaraz	$7.2k	85.6¢	Won
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?	Yes	$100	5.0¢	Lost
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?	No	$1.6k	77.4¢	Won
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?	No	$2.7k	85.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?	No	$180	89.9¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$67.5k	77.5¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$49.6k	65.2¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled in 2025?	Yes	$287	7.7¢	Lost
French Open: Sinner vs. Djokovic	Djokovic	$219	21.9¢	Lost
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?	No	$4.3k	54.1¢	Won
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?	Yes	$2.9k	71.2¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?	No	$8.5k	64.8¢	Won
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?	Yes	$384	58.3¢	Lost

Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?Lost
No$1.6k @ 80.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$123.8k @ 82.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$2.4k @ 80.5¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
Yes$135 @ 89.7¢
Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?Won
No$255 @ 85.0¢
French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner Won
Alcaraz$880 @ 29.3¢
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Raducanu (W)Won
Sabalenka$24 @ 71.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?Won
No$3.5k @ 11.3¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$890 @ 89.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$10.6k @ 81.2¢
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?Lost
No$2.9k @ 49.0¢
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?Won
Yes$16.0k @ 84.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$130 @ 86.6¢
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?Won
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2025 French Open? Lost
Yes$280 @ 35.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$28.2k @ 86.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$37.0k @ 88.0¢
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 13.0¢
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$194 @ 0.9¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Won
Yes$480 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump remove tariff on China before March?Won
No$504 @ 84.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$99.7k @ 89.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 73.3¢
NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Knicks (To Advance)Won
Knicks$2.8k @ 80.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 0.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$365 @ 30.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$3.6k @ 83.2¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin before February?Lost
No$2.1k @ 10.5¢
Iran leadership change by March 13?Won
No$169 @ 89.0¢
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 86.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$970 @ 10.5¢
Patriots vs. BroncosWon
Patriots$960 @ 64.0¢
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?Lost
Yes$130 @ 13.0¢
Texans vs. PatriotsWon
Patriots$52 @ 51.6¢
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense?Lost
Yes$269 @ 26.9¢
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April?Won
No$1.7k @ 82.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$116.1k @ 84.1¢
French Open: Musetti vs. AlcarazWon
Alcaraz$7.2k @ 85.6¢
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Lost
Yes$100 @ 5.0¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?Won
No$1.6k @ 77.4¢
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?Won
No$2.7k @ 85.3¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?Won
No$180 @ 89.9¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$67.5k @ 77.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$49.6k @ 65.2¢
Weed rescheduled in 2025?Lost
Yes$287 @ 7.7¢
French Open: Sinner vs. DjokovicLost
Djokovic$219 @ 21.9¢
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?Won
No$4.3k @ 54.1¢
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 71.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?Won
No$8.5k @ 64.8¢
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?Lost
Yes$384 @ 58.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$241.9k	83.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$64.2k	93.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$29.9k	85.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17.7k	47.9¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$7.9k	21.2¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	26.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.9k	53.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	76.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	68.2¢
Weed rescheduled by September 30?	Politics	No	$54	99.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$241.9k @ 83.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$64.2k @ 93.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$29.9k @ 85.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$17.7k @ 47.9¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$7.9k @ 21.2¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 26.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.9k @ 53.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 76.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 68.2¢
Weed rescheduled by September 30?Politics
No$54 @ 99.0¢