0x3a5a…3427

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3a5a19da3731d31c6cfa71449794f8f25b703427
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

47% @ 42.6¢

Brier

0.141

Resolved

2097

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (222/326)	+2%	326
Sports	40% (67/167)	+29%	167
Politics	26% (15/57)	+23%	57
Geopolitics	40% (6/15)	+2%	15
Tech	100% (1/1)	+15%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other326 bets
Hit rate
68% (222/326)
ROI
+2%
Sports167 bets
Hit rate
40% (67/167)
ROI
+29%
Politics57 bets
Hit rate
26% (15/57)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
+2%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

55% hit · 311/567

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	$18	28.8¢	Lost
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?	Yes	$21	69.0¢	Won
CDP Junior FC vs. AD Pasto: O/U 4.5	Under	$40	89.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of June?	Yes	$17	67.0¢	Won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	$41	68.0¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	No	$18	23.0¢	Won
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	Yes	$176	35.6¢	Lost
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Over	$17	23.1¢	Lost
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5	Under	$43	72.0¢	Won
Will UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF end in a draw?	No	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$103	65.3¢	Lost
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Under	$29	59.0¢	Won
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	0.9¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$102	78.7¢	Won
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10?	No	$40	89.0¢	Won
Coritiba FBC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5	Under	$62	72.9¢	Won
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Under	$50	72.0¢	Won
Will CS Cienciano vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?	No	$34	74.0¢	Won
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$48	69.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	$77	38.5¢	Won
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$55	78.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$34	85.0¢	Won
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5	Under	$40	80.0¢	Won
Haras El Hodood SC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: O/U 2.5	Under	$26	85.0¢	Won
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$10	0.3¢	Lost
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5	Under	$95	78.6¢	Won
Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 2.5	Under	$64	32.0¢	Lost
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals	No	$12	59.0¢	Won
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	$22	86.0¢	Won
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5	Under	$48	73.7¢	Won
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	$4	51.2¢	Lost
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Under	$113	37.7¢	Won
CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5	Under	$76	84.0¢	Won
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$57	81.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	23.0¢	Lost
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Under	$66	83.0¢	Won
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$59	73.4¢	Lost
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$91	82.0¢	Won
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	$56	80.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$72	80.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$25	83.0¢	Won
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?	Yes	$16	82.0¢	Lost
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5	Under	$18	89.0¢	Won
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5	Under	$47	59.0¢	Won
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5	Under	$5	6.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$19	63.0¢	Lost
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	$83	68.4¢	Won
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5	Under	$57	81.0¢	Won

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Lost
No$18 @ 28.8¢
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$21 @ 69.0¢
CDP Junior FC vs. AD Pasto: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$40 @ 89.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of June?Won
Yes$17 @ 67.0¢
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsWon
No$41 @ 68.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Won
No$18 @ 23.0¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Lost
Yes$176 @ 35.6¢
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Lost
Over$17 @ 23.1¢
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Won
Under$43 @ 72.0¢
Will UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF end in a draw?Won
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
Yes$103 @ 65.3¢
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5Won
Under$29 @ 59.0¢
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$102 @ 78.7¢
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10?Won
No$40 @ 89.0¢
Coritiba FBC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Won
Under$62 @ 72.9¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Won
Under$50 @ 72.0¢
Will CS Cienciano vs. CS Cristal end in a draw?Won
No$34 @ 74.0¢
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$48 @ 69.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Won
Under$77 @ 38.5¢
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$55 @ 78.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$34 @ 85.0¢
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Won
Under$40 @ 80.0¢
Haras El Hodood SC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: O/U 2.5Won
Under$26 @ 85.0¢
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.3¢
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5Won
Under$95 @ 78.6¢
Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$64 @ 32.0¢
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goalsWon
No$12 @ 59.0¢
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09?Won
Yes$22 @ 86.0¢
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Won
Under$48 @ 73.7¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Lost
No$4 @ 51.2¢
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5Won
Under$113 @ 37.7¢
CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5Won
Under$76 @ 84.0¢
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$57 @ 81.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 23.0¢
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5Won
Under$66 @ 83.0¢
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Moreirense FC: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$59 @ 73.4¢
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$91 @ 82.0¢
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Won
Under$56 @ 80.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$72 @ 80.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$25 @ 83.0¢
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?Lost
Yes$16 @ 82.0¢
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5Won
Under$18 @ 89.0¢
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5Won
Under$47 @ 59.0¢
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$5 @ 6.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$19 @ 63.0¢
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-09?Won
Yes$83 @ 68.4¢
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Won
Under$57 @ 81.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?	Sports	No	$308	77.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$167	41.8¢
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$90	47.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$75	78.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$63	63.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$60	9.7¢
Will any Moroccan city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	—	Yes	$60	10.7¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$53	2.1¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$52	80.6¢
Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$51	58.6¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$47	33.8¢
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?	Other	No	$41	58.7¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$37	14.2¢
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$36	4.5¢
Will Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$36	64.7¢
Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$35	63.4¢
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Politics	Yes	$33	67.0¢
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?	Politics	Yes	$30	43.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$30	66.7¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$28	47.7¢
Will Luís Eduardo Falcão win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$28	5.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$21	29.4¢
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026?	Sports	No	$20	65.1¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$18	1.7¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$18	5.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$16	20.0¢
Will Patrus Ananias win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$16	5.6¢
António Guterres out by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$14	28.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$14	68.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$14	68.0¢

Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?Sports
No$308 @ 77.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$167 @ 41.8¢
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$90 @ 47.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$75 @ 78.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$63 @ 63.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$60 @ 9.7¢
Will any Moroccan city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?—
Yes$60 @ 10.7¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$53 @ 2.1¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$52 @ 80.6¢
Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?Politics
Yes$51 @ 58.6¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$47 @ 33.8¢
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
No$41 @ 58.7¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$37 @ 14.2¢
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$36 @ 4.5¢
Will Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?Politics
Yes$36 @ 64.7¢
Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Politics
Yes$35 @ 63.4¢
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?Politics
Yes$33 @ 67.0¢
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 43.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$30 @ 66.7¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$28 @ 47.7¢
Will Luís Eduardo Falcão win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$28 @ 5.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 29.4¢
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026?Sports
No$20 @ 65.1¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$18 @ 1.7¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?Politics
Yes$18 @ 5.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 20.0¢
Will Patrus Ananias win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$16 @ 5.6¢
António Guterres out by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$14 @ 28.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$14 @ 68.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$14 @ 68.0¢