0x38f5…6824

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x38f50488b14a87769e0c5cd6c514b6c2e8ec6824
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.5pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

29% @ 20.7¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

2418

Avg size

$35

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	41% (92/224)	+32%	224
Other	45% (97/216)	+44%	216
Geopolitics	30% (10/33)	-58%	33
Tech	42% (8/19)	+31%	19
Culture	32% (6/19)	-59%	19
Sports	42% (5/12)	-16%	12
Crypto	30% (3/10)	+225%	10
Economy	33% (1/3)	+51%	3

Politics224 bets
Hit rate
41% (92/224)
ROI
+32%
Other216 bets
Hit rate
45% (97/216)
ROI
+44%
Geopolitics33 bets
Hit rate
30% (10/33)
ROI
-58%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
42% (8/19)
ROI
+31%
Culture19 bets
Hit rate
32% (6/19)
ROI
-59%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
42% (5/12)
ROI
-16%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
+225%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+51%

Track record

41% hit · 222/536

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will anyone say "White House" during President Curtis E10 S1?	No	$22	44.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "CIA" during President Curtis E10 S1?	No	$29	71.0¢	Won
Will anyone say "Rick" during President Curtis E10 S1?	No	$30	72.0¢	Won
Will anyone say "Date" during Big Brother E40?	Yes	$14	16.9¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Pawn" during Big Brother E40?	Yes	$17	23.1¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Blind" during Big Brother E40?	Yes	$15	50.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Flip the Vote" or "Flipped the Vote" during Big Brother E40?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E40?	No	$109	54.5¢	Won
Will anyone say "Veto" 5+ times during Big Brother E40?	Yes	$20	40.4¢	Won
Will anyone say "Surprise" during Big Brother E40?	No	$14	62.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" this week?	Yes	$85	70.0¢	Lost
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" this week?	Yes	$22	70.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Final" during Big Brother E40?	Yes	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?	Yes	$4	11.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Family" during Big Brother E40?	No	$45	29.7¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Family" during Big Brother E40?	Yes	$61	49.8¢	Won
Will Trump post "Terrorism" on Truth Social this week?	No	$163	77.6¢	Won
Will Trump post "Fool" on Truth Social this week?	No	$145	68.8¢	Won
Will Elon post "Sam" or "Altman" on X this week?	Yes	$7	21.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Pearl Harbor" this week?	Yes	$137	90.0¢	Lost
Will Trump post "Vance" on Truth Social this week?	No	$32	63.0¢	Won
Will Trump post "Vance" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$55	48.8¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E40?	No	$5	25.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Heaven" this week?	No	$16	59.6¢	Won
Will Elon post "Trump" on X this week?	No	$46	64.6¢	Won
Will Trump post "Putin" on Truth Social this week?	No	$88	54.7¢	Won
Will "Trump" be in the headlines this week?	No	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 20, 2026?	No	$4	10.8¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$1.2k	48.3¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$159	51.6¢	Lost
Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	No	$527	73.4¢	Won
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	Yes	$26	53.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$489	39.8¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$73	34.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention (Night 1)?	Yes	$61	11.0¢	Won
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$90	27.8¢	Lost
Will the most viewed episode of NBC Nightly News for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 7 million and 7.5 million viewers?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$93	31.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$51	18.0¢	Lost
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5	Over	$6	15.5¢	Won
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$23	8.7¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	No	$21	68.0¢	Lost
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?	Yes	$346	2.9¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E20?	No	$23	74.0¢	Won
Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E20?	Yes	$30	32.0¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$183	4.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?	Yes	$2	3.5¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$118	59.0¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$139	13.6¢	Lost

Will anyone say "White House" during President Curtis E10 S1?Lost
No$22 @ 44.0¢
Will anyone say "CIA" during President Curtis E10 S1?Won
No$29 @ 71.0¢
Will anyone say "Rick" during President Curtis E10 S1?Won
No$30 @ 72.0¢
Will anyone say "Date" during Big Brother E40?Lost
Yes$14 @ 16.9¢
Will anyone say "Pawn" during Big Brother E40?Lost
Yes$17 @ 23.1¢
Will anyone say "Blind" during Big Brother E40?Lost
Yes$15 @ 50.0¢
Will anyone say "Flip the Vote" or "Flipped the Vote" during Big Brother E40?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E40?Won
No$109 @ 54.5¢
Will anyone say "Veto" 5+ times during Big Brother E40?Won
Yes$20 @ 40.4¢
Will anyone say "Surprise" during Big Brother E40?Lost
No$14 @ 62.8¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" this week?Lost
Yes$85 @ 70.0¢
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?Won
Yes$405 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" this week?Lost
Yes$22 @ 70.0¢
Will anyone say "Final" during Big Brother E40?Won
Yes$15 @ 75.0¢
Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?Lost
Yes$4 @ 11.0¢
Will anyone say "Family" during Big Brother E40?Lost
No$45 @ 29.7¢
Will anyone say "Family" during Big Brother E40?Won
Yes$61 @ 49.8¢
Will Trump post "Terrorism" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$163 @ 77.6¢
Will Trump post "Fool" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$145 @ 68.8¢
Will Elon post "Sam" or "Altman" on X this week?Lost
Yes$7 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump say "Pearl Harbor" this week?Lost
Yes$137 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump post "Vance" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$32 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump post "Vance" on Truth Social this week?Lost
Yes$55 @ 48.8¢
Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E40?Lost
No$5 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump say "Heaven" this week?Won
No$16 @ 59.6¢
Will Elon post "Trump" on X this week?Won
No$46 @ 64.6¢
Will Trump post "Putin" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$88 @ 54.7¢
Will "Trump" be in the headlines this week?Lost
No$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 20, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 10.8¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$1.2k @ 48.3¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$159 @ 51.6¢
Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Won
No$527 @ 73.4¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
Yes$26 @ 53.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$489 @ 39.8¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$73 @ 34.5¢
Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention (Night 1)?Won
Yes$61 @ 11.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$90 @ 27.8¢
Will the most viewed episode of NBC Nightly News for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 7 million and 7.5 million viewers?Lost
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$93 @ 31.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 18.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Won
Over$6 @ 15.5¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$23 @ 8.7¢
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?Lost
No$21 @ 68.0¢
Will FC Carl Zeiss Jena win on 2026-08-01?Lost
Yes$346 @ 2.9¢
Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E20?Won
No$23 @ 74.0¢
Will anyone say "Jury" during Big Brother E20?Lost
Yes$30 @ 32.0¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$183 @ 4.0¢
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$118 @ 59.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$139 @ 13.6¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$10.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$10.0k	50.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.8k	73.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.6k	89.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	34.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$2.1k	82.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.7k	86.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	71.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$930	93.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$903	77.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$630	63.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$600	15.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jon Ossoff by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$488	69.9¢
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in September?	Politics	Yes	$434	68.9¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$424	25.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$396	82.4¢
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	Politics	No	$394	53.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Politics	Yes	$389	64.8¢
Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?	Politics	Yes	$377	65.9¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$331	17.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$316	24.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$280	7.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$275	61.7¢
Will Republicans win white women in the midterms?	Politics	Yes	$272	21.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$270	18.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September?	Politics	Yes	$269	61.1¢
LAPTOP listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?	Politics	Yes	$263	15.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Karoline Leavitt by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$262	96.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$258	71.5¢
Trump renames AI by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$257	57.4¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$10.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$10.0k @ 50.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.8k @ 73.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.6k @ 89.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 34.0¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$2.1k @ 82.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.7k @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 71.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$930 @ 93.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$903 @ 77.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$630 @ 63.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$600 @ 15.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jon Ossoff by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$488 @ 69.9¢
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in September?Politics
Yes$434 @ 68.9¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
Yes$424 @ 25.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$396 @ 82.4¢
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?Politics
No$394 @ 53.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
Yes$389 @ 64.8¢
Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?Politics
Yes$377 @ 65.9¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$331 @ 17.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$316 @ 24.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$280 @ 7.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hillary Clinton by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$275 @ 61.7¢
Will Republicans win white women in the midterms?Politics
Yes$272 @ 21.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$270 @ 18.0¢
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in September?Politics
Yes$269 @ 61.1¢
LAPTOP listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?Politics
Yes$263 @ 15.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Karoline Leavitt by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$262 @ 96.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$258 @ 71.5¢
Trump renames AI by December 31?Politics
Yes$257 @ 57.4¢