← Smart money
0x38f5…6824
SharpEdge
+13.7pp
ROI
+35%
Win rate
45% @ 31.4¢
Brier
0.193
Resolved
2483
Avg size
$42
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 46% (357/782) | +15% | 782 |
| Other | 46% (106/231) | +46% | 231 |
| Geopolitics | 39% (29/75) | -17% | 75 |
| Culture | 49% (28/57) | +0% | 57 |
| Sports | 44% (21/48) | +8% | 48 |
| Tech | 51% (20/39) | +50% | 39 |
| Crypto | 19% (4/21) | +165% | 21 |
| Economy | 50% (2/4) | +60% | 4 |
| Science | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
- Politics782 bets
- Hit rate
- 46% (357/782)
- ROI
- +15%
- Other231 bets
- Hit rate
- 46% (106/231)
- ROI
- +46%
- Geopolitics75 bets
- Hit rate
- 39% (29/75)
- ROI
- -17%
- Culture57 bets
- Hit rate
- 49% (28/57)
- ROI
- +0%
- Sports48 bets
- Hit rate
- 44% (21/48)
- ROI
- +8%
- Tech39 bets
- Hit rate
- 51% (20/39)
- ROI
- +50%
- Crypto21 bets
- Hit rate
- 19% (4/21)
- ROI
- +165%
- Economy4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +60%
- Science3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
45% hit · 567/1260- No$2 @ 12.0¢
- No$2 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 26.3¢
- Yes$97 @ 87.7¢
- No$37 @ 58.3¢
- Yes$39 @ 54.5¢
- No$4 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$75 @ 48.4¢
- No$49 @ 5.2¢
- Yes$45 @ 28.3¢
- Yes$407 @ 10.8¢
- Yes$102 @ 85.1¢
- No$77 @ 21.7¢
- Yes$110 @ 21.3¢
- No$455 @ 90.9¢
- Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?LostYes$124 @ 45.3¢
- No$3 @ 6.5¢
- Yes$6 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$17 @ 6.0¢
- No$247 @ 35.9¢
- Yes$93 @ 94.2¢
- Yes$82 @ 79.4¢
- Yes$250 @ 87.6¢
- No$4 @ 2.1¢
- Yes$129 @ 36.3¢
- Yes$88 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$89 @ 6.4¢
- No$3 @ 44.0¢
- No$5 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$22 @ 3.5¢
- No$4 @ 20.0¢
- No$65 @ 27.3¢
- Yes$10 @ 49.0¢
- No$7 @ 20.5¢
- Yes$26 @ 13.4¢
- Yes$41 @ 54.0¢
- No$10 @ 51.0¢
- Yes$18 @ 21.6¢
- No$12 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$40 @ 18.1¢
- No$102 @ 49.5¢
- Yes$42 @ 38.8¢
- Yes$51 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 7.6¢
- No$410 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$272 @ 21.4¢
- Yes$377 @ 65.9¢
- Yes$44 @ 91.8¢
- Yes$125 @ 91.8¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$17.5k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$17.5k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$5.3k @ 91.4¢
- No$5.0k @ 77.2¢
- Yes$4.8k @ 18.2¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 8.4¢
- No$2.7k @ 87.6¢
- No$2.7k @ 51.2¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 22.6¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 38.0¢
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$912 @ 27.5¢
- No$860 @ 57.3¢
- Yes$859 @ 40.4¢
- No$833 @ 89.7¢
- US recession by end of 2026?EconomyNo$805 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$802 @ 52.5¢
- Yes$723 @ 67.9¢
- No$719 @ 74.8¢
- Yes$672 @ 89.0¢
- No$668 @ 86.7¢
- No$615 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$585 @ 39.0¢
- No$555 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$486 @ 10.2¢
- No$428 @ 73.4¢
- Yes$399 @ 39.9¢
- No$394 @ 53.9¢
- Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?PoliticsYes$383 @ 28.3¢
- No$370 @ 67.1¢
- Yes$363 @ 1.5¢