0x388e…2078

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x388e27b4086e9a38e561165e613614dbab332078
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

52% @ 45.6¢

Brier

0.153

Resolved

2641

Avg size

$52

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (364/711)	+4%	711
Politics	70% (31/44)	+60%	44
Geopolitics	92% (12/13)	+52%	13
Tech	50% (4/8)	-61%	8
Sports	13% (1/8)	+67%	8
Crypto	75% (3/4)	-9%	4
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other711 bets
Hit rate
51% (364/711)
ROI
+4%
Politics44 bets
Hit rate
70% (31/44)
ROI
+60%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
92% (12/13)
ROI
+52%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-61%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
+67%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-9%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

52% hit · 415/791

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?	Yes	$7	1.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?	Yes	$22	11.5¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	1.2¢	Lost
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	$7	73.5¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$100	20.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$10	46.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$1.2k	83.7¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $130 in November?	No	$13	42.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$59	53.7¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$30	20.0¢	Won
Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	No	$10	4.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?	No	$6	28.0¢	Won
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	Yes	$51	14.6¢	Lost
Up Only podcast released by November 30?	Yes	$34	42.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$180	89.9¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?	Yes	$10	4.0¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	Yes	$86	71.9¢	Won
League of Legends: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. LGD Gaming	LGD Gaming	$3	12.3¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	No	$1.2k	68.4¢	Lost
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$39	55.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$8	75.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$50	75.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$846	88.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?	Yes	$54	28.2¢	Lost
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	Yes	$108	83.2¢	Won
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-22?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?	Yes	$13	25.0¢	Lost
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?	No	$7	62.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$25	62.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$50	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 8?	Yes	$8	25.0¢	Lost
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	Yes	$6	82.0¢	Won
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$121	60.3¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Yes	$3	68.0¢	Won
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$31	62.0¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$31	62.6¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?	No	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1	No	$33	82.2¢	Won
League of Legends: Team Heretics vs. SK Gaming	SK Gaming	$1	27.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?	No	$30	38.0¢	Won
Will Vance say "Made in America" during his Rocky Mount visit?	No	$4	73.0¢	Won
Will Vance say "Made in America" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	$42	27.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$1.7k	76.6¢	Won

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.5¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
Will Vance say "Crazy" during his Rocky Mount visit?Won
Yes$7 @ 73.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$100 @ 20.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$10 @ 46.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 83.7¢
Will Solana dip to $130 in November?Lost
No$13 @ 42.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$59 @ 53.7¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$30 @ 20.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Lost
No$10 @ 4.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?Won
No$6 @ 28.0¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Lost
Yes$51 @ 14.6¢
Up Only podcast released by November 30?Lost
Yes$34 @ 42.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$180 @ 89.9¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.0¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Lost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Won
Yes$86 @ 71.9¢
League of Legends: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. LGD GamingLost
LGD Gaming$3 @ 12.3¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Lost
No$1.2k @ 68.4¢
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$39 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$8 @ 75.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$50 @ 75.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Won
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$846 @ 88.3¢
Will Donald Trump say "Sanction" 2+ times during Syria President events on November 10?Lost
Yes$54 @ 28.2¢
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Won
Yes$108 @ 83.2¢
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-08-22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 25.0¢
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Kiev" during Ukraine President events on December 28?Won
No$7 @ 62.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$25 @ 62.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 8?Lost
Yes$8 @ 25.0¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Won
Yes$6 @ 82.0¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$121 @ 60.3¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Won
Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 62.0¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$31 @ 62.6¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Lost
No$2 @ 15.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1Won
No$33 @ 82.2¢
League of Legends: Team Heretics vs. SK GamingWon
SK Gaming$1 @ 27.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?Won
No$30 @ 38.0¢
Will Vance say "Made in America" during his Rocky Mount visit?Won
No$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Vance say "Made in America" during his Rocky Mount visit?Lost
Yes$42 @ 27.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 76.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	93.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	No	$587	93.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$346	86.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$197	98.7¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$91	91.0¢
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Politics	Yes	$87	79.5¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	Politics	No	$79	91.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$71	94.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$70	70.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$64	64.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	No	$29	30.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$21	69.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5	27.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$5	3.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$2	34.0¢

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 93.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
No$587 @ 93.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$346 @ 86.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$197 @ 98.7¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$91 @ 91.0¢
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Politics
Yes$87 @ 79.5¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?Politics
No$79 @ 91.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$71 @ 94.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$70 @ 70.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$64 @ 64.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
No$29 @ 30.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$21 @ 69.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5 @ 27.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$5 @ 3.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$2 @ 34.0¢