0x3437…f8f3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x34379b9a574de6c5f05b3216a315fbf5b707f8f3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.9pp

ROI

+95%

Win rate

50% @ 36.2¢

Brier

0.211

Resolved

1193

Avg size

$91

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	44% (24/55)	+101%	55
Other	47% (18/38)	-26%	38
Geopolitics	27% (3/11)	+3%	11
Tech	20% (2/10)	-10%	10
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-14%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+43%	1

Politics55 bets
Hit rate
44% (24/55)
ROI
+101%
Other38 bets
Hit rate
47% (18/38)
ROI
-26%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
+3%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-10%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-14%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%

Track record

41% hit · 49/119

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$490	49.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$35	1.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$236	58.9¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Yes	$125	25.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	No	$76	38.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	Yes	$244	85.3¢	Won
Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$24	8.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$630	63.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$17	34.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$265	34.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$26	2.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$5	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$400	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$2.5k	49.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$350	35.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$109	21.8¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	No	$110	11.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$79	72.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$610	61.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$801	21.9¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$205	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$176	44.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$400	80.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$478	47.4¢	Won
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	94.0¢	Won
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$296	28.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$319	21.5¢	Lost
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	$490	61.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$480	16.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	Yes	$38	1.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$314	68.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$710	71.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$500	57.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$450	90.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?	No	$528	58.9¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	$18	9.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$765	6.2¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$3.9k	37.1¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$17	3.5¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$336	56.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$468	5.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$49	4.9¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$523	52.3¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$1.4k	66.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$1.3k	59.2¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$154	8.9¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$114	4.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$302	21.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$563	29.7¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	83.4¢	Won

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$490 @ 49.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$35 @ 1.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$236 @ 58.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$125 @ 25.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Lost
No$76 @ 38.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Won
Yes$244 @ 85.3¢
Will William Clouston get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$630 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$17 @ 34.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$265 @ 34.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$26 @ 2.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$5 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$400 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 49.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$350 @ 35.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$109 @ 21.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$110 @ 11.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$79 @ 72.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$801 @ 21.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$205 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$176 @ 44.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Won
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$478 @ 47.4¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 94.0¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$296 @ 28.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$319 @ 21.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Won
No$490 @ 61.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$480 @ 16.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Lost
Yes$38 @ 1.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$314 @ 68.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$710 @ 71.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$500 @ 57.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$450 @ 90.0¢
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?Won
No$528 @ 58.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 9.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$765 @ 6.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 37.1¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.5¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$336 @ 56.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$468 @ 5.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$49 @ 4.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$523 @ 52.3¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$1.4k @ 66.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 59.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$154 @ 8.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$114 @ 4.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$302 @ 21.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$563 @ 29.7¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 83.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	Yes	$2.1k	10.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$640	64.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	—	Yes	$610	61.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$495	33.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	—	Yes	$486	15.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$445	37.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$400	80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$340	34.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$320	64.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	—	No	$315	63.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$304	76.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$274	18.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	Yes	$132	22.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	—	Yes	$84	2.8¢
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$46	14.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
Yes$2.1k @ 10.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$640 @ 64.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?—
Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$495 @ 33.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?—
Yes$486 @ 15.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$445 @ 37.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$400 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$340 @ 34.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$320 @ 64.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?—
No$315 @ 63.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$304 @ 76.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$274 @ 18.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
Yes$132 @ 22.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?—
Yes$84 @ 2.8¢
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31?Politics
Yes$46 @ 14.0¢