← Smart money
0x33e2…3a1b
SharpEdge
+8.2pp
ROI
+22%
Win rate
50% @ 42.1¢
Brier
0.099
Resolved
165
Avg size
$151
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 52% (14/27) | +3% | 27 |
| Tech | 80% (4/5) | +55% | 5 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | +26% | 2 |
| Crypto | 50% (1/2) | +117% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Culture | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics27 bets
- Hit rate
- 52% (14/27)
- ROI
- +3%
- Tech5 bets
- Hit rate
- 80% (4/5)
- ROI
- +55%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +26%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +117%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
53% hit · 20/38- Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$34 @ 1.8¢
- No$5.7k @ 85.3¢
- Yes$119 @ 12.4¢
- Yes$108 @ 59.4¢
- No$4.4k @ 88.7¢
- Yes$399 @ 7.1¢
- No$2.8k @ 38.9¢
- Yes$518 @ 1.5¢
- No$370 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$175 @ 87.0¢
- No$816 @ 79.8¢
- Yes$583 @ 17.6¢
- Yes$449 @ 74.0¢
- No$420 @ 14.1¢
- Yes$662 @ 57.0¢
- No$439 @ 60.7¢
- Yes$63 @ 71.1¢
- Yes$10 @ 17.5¢
- Yes$3 @ 2.4¢
- No$154 @ 34.1¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 52.4¢
- No$1 @ 0.1¢
- No$4 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$215 @ 3.0¢
- No$74 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$84 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$108 @ 83.0¢
- Yes$14 @ 8.8¢
- No$1.1k @ 70.0¢
- No$51 @ 6.4¢
- Yes$267 @ 86.3¢
- No$353 @ 31.9¢
- Yes$261 @ 73.6¢
- No$1.4k @ 12.5¢
- Yes$842 @ 83.8¢
- No$72 @ 74.4¢
- Yes$6 @ 20.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Geopolitics | No | $1.2k | 96.2¢ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? | — | No | $994 | 99.4¢ |
| Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? | Politics | No | $989 | 98.9¢ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Politics | No | $731 | 97.5¢ |
| Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Politics | No | $605 | 93.7¢ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? | Politics | No | $316 | 79.0¢ |
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $23 | 1.3¢ |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | Geopolitics | Yes | $10 | 17.5¢ |
| Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Politics | No | $4 | 78.0¢ |
- No$1.2k @ 96.2¢
- No$994 @ 99.4¢
- No$989 @ 98.9¢
- No$731 @ 97.5¢
- No$605 @ 93.7¢
- No$316 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$23 @ 1.3¢
- Yes$10 @ 17.5¢
- No$4 @ 78.0¢