0x328d…f7a9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x328dc4b82869856f3e1a1eae904e67957641f7a9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.3pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

87% @ 68.1¢

Brier

0.117

Resolved

699

Avg size

$375

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	69% (20/29)	+10%	29
Other	75% (9/12)	+29%	12
Geopolitics	75% (6/8)	+7%	8

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
69% (20/29)
ROI
+10%
Other12 bets
Hit rate
75% (9/12)
ROI
+29%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+7%

Track record

71% hit · 35/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$667	78.5¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$95	50.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$7.2k	68.6¢	Won
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	No	$103	71.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	$4.0k	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.3k	43.2¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	83.5¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$10.4k	85.1¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$12.5k	78.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$339	65.9¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$2.0k	81.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$139	19.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$5.2k	54.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$517	86.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$3.0k	15.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$3.0k	75.7¢	Won
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$1.6k	70.7¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$22.7k	70.5¢	Won
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$328	5.7¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$33.7k	82.2¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$5.7k	83.9¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$387	78.6¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$157	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8.8k	81.8¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14.3k	75.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$1.4k	54.0¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$19.9k	57.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$23.4k	71.3¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	$2.3k	66.7¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$978	38.3¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	48.2¢	Won
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$515	65.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$7.7k	58.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$5.0k	56.8¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	Yes	$1.5k	83.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$390	39.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$521	51.1¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.3k	77.8¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$10.2k	85.2¢	Won
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$147	73.2¢	Won
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$7.9k	83.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$19.3k	72.0¢	Won
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$728	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$642	26.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$2.5k	49.5¢	Lost
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$226	79.0¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$8.7k	86.4¢	Won
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	Yes	$57	7.8¢	Won

Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$667 @ 78.5¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$95 @ 50.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$7.2k @ 68.6¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Won
No$103 @ 71.0¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Won
No$4.0k @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5.3k @ 43.2¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 83.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$10.4k @ 85.1¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$12.5k @ 78.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$339 @ 65.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 81.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$139 @ 19.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$5.2k @ 54.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$517 @ 86.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 15.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$3.0k @ 75.7¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 70.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$22.7k @ 70.5¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Lost
Yes$328 @ 5.7¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$33.7k @ 82.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$5.7k @ 83.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$387 @ 78.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$157 @ 14.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$8.8k @ 81.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$14.3k @ 75.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 54.0¢
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Won
Yes$19.9k @ 57.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$23.4k @ 71.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 66.7¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$978 @ 38.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 48.2¢
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$515 @ 65.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$7.7k @ 58.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$5.0k @ 56.8¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 83.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$521 @ 51.1¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 77.8¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$10.2k @ 85.2¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
No$147 @ 73.2¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
Yes$7.9k @ 83.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$19.3k @ 72.0¢
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$728 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$642 @ 26.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$2.5k @ 49.5¢
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Won
Yes$226 @ 79.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$8.7k @ 86.4¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Won
Yes$57 @ 7.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$26.6k	82.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$24.1k	80.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$23.1k	84.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$22.4k	68.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$17.9k	79.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$14.3k	66.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$11.3k	79.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$10.4k	85.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$10.3k	84.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6.9k	61.2¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$6.8k	85.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.7k	65.7¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$5.5k	82.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$5.5k	46.0¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.1k	93.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.7k	49.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	45.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$3.8k	83.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	9.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$2.3k	77.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	11.4¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$465	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$160	80.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$26.6k @ 82.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$24.1k @ 80.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$23.1k @ 84.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$22.4k @ 68.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$17.9k @ 79.2¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$14.3k @ 66.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$11.3k @ 79.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$10.4k @ 85.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$10.3k @ 84.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$6.9k @ 61.2¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$6.8k @ 85.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5.7k @ 65.7¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$5.5k @ 82.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$5.5k @ 46.0¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$5.1k @ 93.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.7k @ 49.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 45.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$3.8k @ 83.2¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 9.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$2.3k @ 77.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 11.4¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$465 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢