0x3169…21b4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x316994394b3675ead48b2a8eb68daaab7b1a21b4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+22.7pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

78% @ 55.7¢

Brier

0.154

Resolved

1583

Avg size

$67

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	45% (54/120)	+37%	120
Politics	30% (13/43)	-1%	43
Sports	21% (3/14)	+4%	14
Geopolitics	8% (1/12)	-65%	12
Crypto	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other120 bets
Hit rate
45% (54/120)
ROI
+37%
Politics43 bets
Hit rate
30% (13/43)
ROI
-1%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
21% (3/14)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/12)
ROI
-65%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 71/193

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$92	16.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$10	6.9¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$6	4.3¢	Lost
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	$286	24.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?	No	$502	83.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$12	6.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$4.7k	85.9¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$57	34.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$864	74.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$375	16.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$15	2.5¢	Lost
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Yes	$762	32.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$31	8.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$15	4.0¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$141	19.7¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$839	79.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$6	1.4¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$19	7.5¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$14	12.0¢	Lost
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$15	4.2¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	85.6¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$53	14.1¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$20	3.1¢	Lost
BYU Cougars vs. Colorado Buffaloes (W)	Colorado Buffaloes	$4	26.0¢	Won
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16?	Yes	$43	16.3¢	Lost
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?	Yes	$32	47.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	No	$2	33.0¢	Lost
Pelicans vs. Rockets	Pelicans	$96	32.0¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$42	26.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?	No	$1.4k	86.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$8	20.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$170	6.5¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$58	19.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?	No	$856	79.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$113	12.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$96	11.1¢	Lost
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$65	34.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$37	15.1¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	$581	86.1¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	$277	17.0¢	Lost
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	$33	11.0¢	Lost
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?	Yes	$16	41.0¢	Won
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?	No	$16	49.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$65	6.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$88	22.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Patriot" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$6	70.6¢	Won
Will Trump's remarks not air?	Yes	$26	38.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$55	8.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$11	3.5¢	Lost

Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Lost
No$92 @ 16.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.3¢
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?Lost
Yes$286 @ 24.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?Won
No$502 @ 83.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$4.7k @ 85.9¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$57 @ 34.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$864 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$375 @ 16.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.5¢
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Lost
Yes$762 @ 32.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$31 @ 8.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 4.0¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$141 @ 19.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$839 @ 79.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$6 @ 1.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$19 @ 7.5¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$14 @ 12.0¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$15 @ 4.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 85.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$53 @ 14.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.1¢
BYU Cougars vs. Colorado Buffaloes (W)Won
Colorado Buffaloes$4 @ 26.0¢
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16?Lost
Yes$43 @ 16.3¢
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?Lost
Yes$32 @ 47.0¢
Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
No$2 @ 33.0¢
Pelicans vs. RocketsLost
Pelicans$96 @ 32.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$42 @ 26.1¢
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 86.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$170 @ 6.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$58 @ 19.9¢
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?Lost
No$856 @ 79.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$113 @ 12.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$96 @ 11.1¢
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Lost
No$65 @ 34.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 15.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Won
No$581 @ 86.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Lost
Yes$277 @ 17.0¢
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Lost
No$33 @ 11.0¢
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?Won
Yes$16 @ 41.0¢
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?Won
No$16 @ 49.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$65 @ 6.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$88 @ 22.8¢
Will Trump say "Patriot" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Won
Yes$6 @ 70.6¢
Will Trump's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$26 @ 38.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$55 @ 8.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.5¢

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