← Smart money
0x300c…6a92
SharpEdge
+4.4pp
ROI
+12%
Win rate
42% @ 37.5¢
Brier
0.155
Resolved
1058
Avg size
$33
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50% (62/125) | +17% | 125 |
| Sports | 44% (41/93) | +43% | 93 |
| Politics | 35% (25/72) | +5% | 72 |
| Geopolitics | 46% (19/41) | -8% | 41 |
| Tech | 42% (13/31) | +1% | 31 |
- Other125 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (62/125)
- ROI
- +17%
- Sports93 bets
- Hit rate
- 44% (41/93)
- ROI
- +43%
- Politics72 bets
- Hit rate
- 35% (25/72)
- ROI
- +5%
- Geopolitics41 bets
- Hit rate
- 46% (19/41)
- ROI
- -8%
- Tech31 bets
- Hit rate
- 42% (13/31)
- ROI
- +1%
Track record
44% hit · 160/362- Yes$77 @ 16.8¢
- No$87 @ 28.9¢
- Argentina$289 @ 69.2¢
- Switzerland$145 @ 13.9¢
- Yes$73 @ 59.0¢
- No$410 @ 81.9¢
- Yes$75 @ 18.4¢
- Yes$86 @ 85.4¢
- Yes$346 @ 50.4¢
- No$70 @ 58.9¢
- Yes$27 @ 49.9¢
- Yes$124 @ 24.8¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
- No$35 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$72 @ 14.0¢
- No$11 @ 3.7¢
- No$2 @ 17.0¢
- No$1.0k @ 78.3¢
- Yes$181 @ 16.4¢
- Yes$68 @ 61.7¢
- Yes$151 @ 40.8¢
- No$49 @ 48.0¢
- No$35 @ 53.2¢
- Yes$50 @ 36.0¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$26 @ 20.1¢
- Colombia$13 @ 42.0¢
- Uzbekistan$50 @ 60.8¢
- No$2 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$181 @ 28.9¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$63 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$252 @ 83.8¢
- No$15 @ 14.7¢
- No$104 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$142 @ 27.0¢
- No$68 @ 17.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 6.3¢
- No$74 @ 38.3¢
- Yes$40 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$61 @ 37.1¢
- No$4 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 12.7¢
- No$230 @ 58.2¢
- No$8 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$459 @ 78.5¢
- No$101 @ 23.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?TechNo$277 @ 72.2¢
- No$186 @ 77.9¢
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?TechNo$162 @ 81.8¢
- No$142 @ 39.3¢
- No$138 @ 91.9¢
- Discord IPO before 2027?BusinessYes$120 @ 39.1¢
- Yes$95 @ 43.8¢
- Yes$81 @ 74.0¢
- Will Françoise Faverjon-Fortin win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?PoliticsYes$74 @ 38.4¢
- No$72 @ 89.8¢
- Yes$69 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$61 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$57 @ 37.9¢
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?TechNo$54 @ 86.9¢
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?PoliticsYes$51 @ 51.0¢
- No$47 @ 73.0¢
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?TechYes$45 @ 17.8¢
- No$43 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$42 @ 66.7¢
- Yes$42 @ 63.5¢
- Yes$39 @ 66.2¢
- No$37 @ 40.3¢
- No$36 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$35 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$30 @ 16.1¢
- No$30 @ 27.0¢
- Yes$26 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$26 @ 42.8¢
- No$23 @ 58.0¢
- No$22 @ 81.0¢