0x2ed8…93d4

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2ed8f7a10686dbb0fb15f5c3335f30e0043793d4
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.4pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

45% @ 39.6¢

Brier

0.143

Resolved

715

Avg size

$48

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (24/48)	+8%	48
Politics	56% (10/18)	+26%	18
Economy	45% (5/11)	+10%	11
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	-3%	4

Other48 bets
Hit rate
50% (24/48)
ROI
+8%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
56% (10/18)
ROI
+26%
Economy11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-3%

Track record

51% hit · 41/81

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$185	77.2¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$955	88.5¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	$173	86.9¢	Won
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	$76	71.5¢	Won
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$156	38.1¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	No	$253	43.5¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	82.4¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$173	57.7¢	Won
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$57	57.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11.7k	87.0¢	Won
ECB rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	77.3¢	Won
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$261	82.4¢	Won
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?	Yes	$48	48.0¢	Won
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$218	85.1¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	Yes	$382	82.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?	Yes	$14	19.4¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?	Yes	$101	35.4¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	$124	86.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$156	77.4¢	Won
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting?	No	$9	86.7¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$64	64.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$58	9.0¢	Lost
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	Yes	$0	40.0¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	$12	3.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?	Yes	$0	1.6¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	No	$1.0k	70.9¢	Won
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	$226	43.0¢	Lost
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	$56	6.6¢	Lost
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$200	20.3¢	Lost
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	$145	22.4¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$318	67.2¢	Won
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$82	41.0¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	$183	60.4¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?	Yes	$73	24.7¢	Lost
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Yes	$244	23.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$62	62.0¢	Won
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	Yes	$9	6.3¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision?	Yes	$78	22.3¢	Lost
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$233	80.0¢	Won
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$437	53.4¢	Lost
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8	6.9¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	$331	32.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$101	51.0¢	Won
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	No	$487	87.0¢	Won
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$114	17.0¢	Lost
Will no one dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$262	81.3¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$104	33.5¢	Lost
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	Yes	$76	10.2¢	Lost

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
Yes$185 @ 77.2¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$955 @ 88.5¢
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Won
No$173 @ 86.9¢
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?Won
Yes$76 @ 71.5¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Lost
Yes$156 @ 38.1¢
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?Lost
No$253 @ 43.5¢
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 82.4¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
Yes$173 @ 57.7¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
Yes$57 @ 57.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$11.7k @ 87.0¢
ECB rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 77.3¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$261 @ 82.4¢
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?Won
Yes$48 @ 48.0¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Won
Yes$218 @ 85.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?Won
Yes$382 @ 82.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$170 @ 85.0¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?Lost
Yes$14 @ 19.4¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?Lost
Yes$101 @ 35.4¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?Won
No$124 @ 86.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$156 @ 77.4¢
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting?Won
No$9 @ 86.7¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$64 @ 64.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$58 @ 9.0¢
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 40.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Lost
Yes$12 @ 3.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.6¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Won
No$1.0k @ 70.9¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Lost
Yes$226 @ 43.0¢
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Lost
Yes$56 @ 6.6¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$200 @ 20.3¢
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Lost
Yes$145 @ 22.4¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$318 @ 67.2¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$82 @ 41.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
No$183 @ 60.4¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?Lost
Yes$73 @ 24.7¢
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Lost
Yes$244 @ 23.8¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.3¢
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision?Lost
Yes$78 @ 22.3¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$233 @ 80.0¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$437 @ 53.4¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 6.9¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?Lost
Yes$331 @ 32.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$101 @ 51.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?Won
No$487 @ 87.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$114 @ 17.0¢
Will no one dissent the April Fed decision?Won
No$262 @ 81.3¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
Yes$104 @ 33.5¢
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?Lost
Yes$76 @ 10.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$4.9k	69.4¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$4.7k	58.8¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.8k	71.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$3.8k	83.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$2.9k	81.1¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$2.6k	83.8¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$2.2k	74.4¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	82.3¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	Economy	No	$1.2k	75.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	72.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	47.0¢
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$1.0k	79.6¢
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?	Politics	Yes	$769	70.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Politics	No	$705	84.0¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$659	55.3¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$528	71.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Economy	No	$522	75.3¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	No	$507	41.9¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$442	86.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$431	87.2¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$404	85.6¢
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$345	47.8¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$337	84.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$315	38.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Economy	No	$270	84.4¢
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?	Politics	No	$253	77.6¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$176	85.0¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Economy	No	$120	83.4¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$73	73.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?	Economy	Yes	$54	42.0¢

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$4.9k @ 69.4¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$4.7k @ 58.8¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics
No$3.8k @ 71.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$3.8k @ 83.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$2.9k @ 81.1¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Economy
No$2.6k @ 83.8¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$2.2k @ 74.4¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 82.3¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy
No$1.2k @ 75.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 72.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 47.0¢
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?Economy
No$1.0k @ 79.6¢
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?Politics
Yes$769 @ 70.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Politics
No$705 @ 84.0¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$659 @ 55.3¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Economy
No$528 @ 71.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Economy
No$522 @ 75.3¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
No$507 @ 41.9¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$442 @ 86.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$431 @ 87.2¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Economy
No$404 @ 85.6¢
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Politics
Yes$345 @ 47.8¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$337 @ 84.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$315 @ 38.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Economy
No$270 @ 84.4¢
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?Politics
No$253 @ 77.6¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
No$176 @ 85.0¢
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Economy
No$120 @ 83.4¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$73 @ 73.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?Economy
Yes$54 @ 42.0¢