0x2d99…4ca3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2d99e29c4f066ba32098c65e4c7454b277d94ca3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.7pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

79% @ 65.1¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

555

Avg size

$632

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	90% (46/51)	+5%	51
Other	80% (32/40)	+14%	40
Geopolitics	93% (13/14)	+2%	14
Sports	67% (2/3)	-8%	3
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+2%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+0%	1

Politics51 bets
Hit rate
90% (46/51)
ROI
+5%
Other40 bets
Hit rate
80% (32/40)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
93% (13/14)
ROI
+2%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-8%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+2%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%

Track record

86% hit · 96/111

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$4.4k	44.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$8.6k	86.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$9.6k	87.1¢	Lost
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$135	89.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$2.0k	67.2¢	Won
Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$133	89.2¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	Yes	$880	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$11.3k	57.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$1.4k	85.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$4.8k	82.3¢	Lost
Will Rodina win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$199	80.1¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$9.5k	77.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$281	28.1¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$1.3k	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$26.9k	62.7¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$820	82.0¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$1.7k	56.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$15.4k	73.4¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	No	$5.8k	85.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$193	17.9¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$14	18.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$6.7k	67.0¢	Won
Will the Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$336	86.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$4.2k	82.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$17.6k	88.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	$60	81.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$764	38.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$582	29.1¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	$351	31.9¢	Lost
Will FalleN retire by June 1?	Yes	$881	88.1¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	$600	60.0¢	Won
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	$2.1k	71.3¢	Lost
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	No	$223	83.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$347	97.2¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$8.7k	99.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	Yes	$9.3k	93.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	Yes	$388	99.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$1.1k	56.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$4.1k	79.9¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?	No	$16.0k	99.9¢	Won
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	No	$46	92.5¢	Won
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?	No	$4.5k	99.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?	Yes	$4.6k	99.6¢	Won
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	No	$268	99.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	Yes	$56.5k	99.1¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?	Yes	$7.7k	99.7¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	No	$393	98.1¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	No	$477	99.4¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?	No	$706	98.9¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	No	$10	48.0¢	Won

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$4.4k @ 44.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$8.6k @ 86.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$9.6k @ 87.1¢
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$135 @ 89.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$2.0k @ 67.2¢
Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
No$133 @ 89.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?Won
Yes$880 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$11.3k @ 57.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$1.4k @ 85.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$4.8k @ 82.3¢
Will Rodina win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$199 @ 80.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$9.5k @ 77.2¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$281 @ 28.1¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$1.3k @ 13.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$26.9k @ 62.7¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$820 @ 82.0¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 56.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$15.4k @ 73.4¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Won
No$5.8k @ 85.5¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$193 @ 17.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$14 @ 18.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$6.7k @ 67.0¢
Will the Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
No$336 @ 86.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$4.2k @ 82.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$17.6k @ 88.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
Yes$60 @ 81.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$764 @ 38.2¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$582 @ 29.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
No$351 @ 31.9¢
Will FalleN retire by June 1? Won
Yes$881 @ 88.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Won
Yes$600 @ 60.0¢
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Lost
Khamzat Chimaev$2.1k @ 71.3¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Won
No$223 @ 83.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$347 @ 97.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$8.7k @ 99.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Won
Yes$9.3k @ 93.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?Won
Yes$388 @ 99.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 56.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 79.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?Won
No$16.0k @ 99.9¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 92.5¢
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?Won
No$4.5k @ 99.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?Won
Yes$4.6k @ 99.6¢
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Won
No$268 @ 99.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Won
Yes$56.5k @ 99.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?Won
Yes$7.7k @ 99.7¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Won
No$393 @ 98.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Won
No$477 @ 99.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?Won
No$706 @ 98.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Won
No$10 @ 48.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$275.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$275.0k	50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$205.5k	85.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$102.5k	93.0¢
Will the Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	—	No	$91.0k	99.6¢
Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	—	No	$2.9k	99.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.9k	95.6¢
Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	—	No	$1.5k	96.9¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	Geopolitics	No	$194	97.0¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$275.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$275.0k @ 50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$205.5k @ 85.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$102.5k @ 93.0¢
Will the Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?—
No$91.0k @ 99.6¢
Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?—
No$2.9k @ 99.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1.9k @ 95.6¢
Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?—
No$1.5k @ 96.9¢
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?Geopolitics
No$194 @ 97.0¢