← Smart money
0x2d99…4ca3
ProfitableEdge
+39.2pp
ROI
+79%
Win rate
93% @ 53.9¢
Brier
0.319
Resolved
87
Avg size
$619
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 67% (2/3) | -27% | 3 |
| Politics | 100% (2/2) | +41% | 2 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +46% | 1 |
- Other3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- -27%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +41%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +46%
Track record
83% hit · 5/6| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | No | $820 | 82.0¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $764 | 38.2¢ | Won |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | Khamzat Chimaev | $2.1k | 71.3¢ | Lost |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | No | $2.0k | 67.2¢ | Won |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? | No | $223 | 83.1¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $671 | 68.7¢ | Won |
- No$820 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$764 @ 38.2¢
- Khamzat Chimaev$2.1k @ 71.3¢
- No$2.0k @ 67.2¢
- No$223 @ 83.1¢
- No$671 @ 68.7¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $140.0k | 50.0¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | No | $140.0k | 50.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $107.8k | 82.9¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | — | Yes | $45.4k | 99.5¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27? | — | Yes | $17.9k | 99.3¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | — | Yes | $3.1k | 99.2¢ |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | Politics | No | $1.2k | 49.0¢ |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Politics | No | $890 | 89.0¢ |
- Yes$140.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$140.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$107.8k @ 82.9¢
- Yes$45.4k @ 99.5¢
- Yes$17.9k @ 99.3¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 99.2¢
- No$1.2k @ 49.0¢
- No$890 @ 89.0¢