0x2c39…56dc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+15.4pp

ROI

+33%

Win rate

50% @ 34.2¢

Brier

0.220

Resolved

4281

Avg size

$350

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (119/258)	+17%	258
Politics	47% (56/120)	+49%	120
Geopolitics	37% (10/27)	+5%	27
Tech	33% (6/18)	-17%	18
Sports	20% (1/5)	-83%	5
Business	50% (1/2)	-24%	2

Other258 bets
Hit rate
46% (119/258)
ROI
+17%
Politics120 bets
Hit rate
47% (56/120)
ROI
+49%
Geopolitics27 bets
Hit rate
37% (10/27)
ROI
+5%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
33% (6/18)
ROI
-17%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-83%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-24%

Track record

45% hit · 193/430

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	$6	39.0¢	Lost
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	$4	57.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$452	74.5¢	Won
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5	Over	$640	32.0¢	Lost
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5	Under	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$4.7k	84.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$200	20.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$175	1.0¢	Lost
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)	Warriors	$81	15.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention (Night 1)?	No	$1.1k	87.1¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$110	6.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$764	26.5¢	Lost
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5	Under	$25	63.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$202	81.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$44	8.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$5.4k	84.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$3.2k	11.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hormuz" this week? (March 22)	No	$260	35.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$480	23.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$33.6k	72.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$39.4k	16.5¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	No	$13	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$107	27.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$1.9k	82.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$491	23.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$4.4k	89.4¢	Won
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Patriots	$12	58.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?	No	$52	50.6¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$2.3k	85.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$103	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with Brazilian president?	No	$1.1k	55.0¢	Won
Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	Over	$2.0k	40.0¢	Lost
Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5	Under	$6.1k	61.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$1.9k	5.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	No	$69	17.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Over	$10	14.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5	Under	$2.3k	66.9¢	Lost
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	Hawks	$111	37.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast say "Movie" during his next video?	No	$11	74.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$3.5k	56.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	$107	45.9¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$29	1.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$154	60.8¢	Lost
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$90	4.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Pledge" or "Pledged" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	$197	49.7¢	Won
Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5	Under	$351	24.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$403	26.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	72.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$3.4k	3.5¢	Lost

Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?Lost
Yes$6 @ 39.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Lost
No$4 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$452 @ 74.5¢
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5Lost
Over$640 @ 32.0¢
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5Lost
Under$50 @ 25.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 84.0¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
No$200 @ 20.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$175 @ 1.0¢
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)Won
Warriors$81 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "Ass" during RNC Convention (Night 1)?Lost
No$1.1k @ 87.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$110 @ 6.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$764 @ 26.5¢
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 230.5Lost
Under$25 @ 63.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$202 @ 81.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 8.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$5.4k @ 84.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 11.1¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" this week? (March 22)Lost
No$260 @ 35.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$480 @ 23.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$33.6k @ 72.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$39.4k @ 16.5¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "Favored Nation" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Lost
Yes$107 @ 27.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$1.9k @ 82.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$491 @ 23.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$4.4k @ 89.4¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksLost
Patriots$12 @ 58.0¢
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines?Won
No$52 @ 50.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 85.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$103 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with Brazilian president?Won
No$1.1k @ 55.0¢
Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5Lost
Over$2.0k @ 40.0¢
Spain vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5Won
Under$6.1k @ 61.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 5.8¢
Will Trump say "Blockade" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Won
No$69 @ 17.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Won
Over$10 @ 14.0¢
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Lost
Under$2.3k @ 66.9¢
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Lost
Hawks$111 @ 37.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Movie" during his next video?Won
No$11 @ 74.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$3.5k @ 56.3¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Won
No$107 @ 45.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 1.1¢
Will Trump say "Moon" or "Astronaut" during TPUSA events on April 17?Lost
No$154 @ 60.8¢
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$90 @ 4.5¢
Will Trump say "Pledge" or "Pledged" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Won
No$197 @ 49.7¢
Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Lost
Under$351 @ 24.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$403 @ 26.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 72.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 3.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$8.2k	82.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$6.9k	77.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.8k	57.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.9k	89.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4.6k	60.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$3.7k	66.3¢
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$2.8k	90.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2.5k	73.2¢
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	Tech	No	$916	90.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$873	27.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$799	34.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$735	81.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$563	11.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$561	48.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$558	93.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$556	86.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$493	7.6¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$433	54.9¢
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$423	80.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$345	68.0¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Tech	No	$342	76.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$290	82.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$264	77.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Politics	No	$254	23.8¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?	Tech	No	$238	73.3¢
SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$200	36.3¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Tech	Yes	$181	4.0¢
SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$137	44.4¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	Tech	No	$93	60.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$92	4.3¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$8.2k @ 82.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$6.9k @ 77.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5.8k @ 57.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$4.9k @ 89.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$4.6k @ 60.3¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$3.7k @ 66.3¢
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$2.8k @ 90.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$2.5k @ 73.2¢
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Tech
No$916 @ 90.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$873 @ 27.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$799 @ 34.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
No$735 @ 81.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$563 @ 11.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$561 @ 48.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech
No$558 @ 93.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$556 @ 86.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$493 @ 7.6¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$433 @ 54.9¢
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$423 @ 80.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$345 @ 68.0¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Tech
No$342 @ 76.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$290 @ 82.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Crypto
No$264 @ 77.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
No$254 @ 23.8¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?Tech
No$238 @ 73.3¢
SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$200 @ 36.3¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tech
Yes$181 @ 4.0¢
SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$137 @ 44.4¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?Tech
No$93 @ 60.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$92 @ 4.3¢