0x2b9d…adc0

Specialization by sphere

• Other436 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (220/436)

  ROI

  +2%

• Politics127 bets

  Hit rate

  47% (60/127)

  ROI

  +24%

• Tech14 bets

  Hit rate

  36% (5/14)

  ROI

  -11%

• Geopolitics9 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (3/9)

  ROI

  -25%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -24%

• Culture2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +112%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
  Yes$280 @ 28.0¢
• Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
  No$234 @ 87.0¢
• Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Won
  Yes$30 @ 59.0¢
• Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Lost
  No$236 @ 63.2¢
• Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?Lost
  No$7 @ 7.0¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$106 @ 58.0¢
• Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 2.1¢
• Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
  No$18 @ 89.0¢
• Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 12.9¢
• Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 1.7¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
  No$825 @ 55.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
  Yes$925 @ 87.5¢
• Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
  Yes$620 @ 21.2¢
• Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  No$85 @ 63.8¢
• Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
  Yes$41 @ 16.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
  Yes$619 @ 10.3¢
• Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?Won
  Yes$17 @ 40.5¢
• Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?Won
  No$121 @ 83.8¢
• Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
  Yes$111 @ 13.6¢
• Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?Won
  No$1.5k @ 75.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
  No$860 @ 86.0¢
• Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Lost
  No$3.5k @ 48.4¢
• Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$240 @ 7.1¢
• Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
  No$136 @ 68.0¢
• Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 61.0¢
• Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?Lost
  Yes$148 @ 0.3¢
• Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 0.5¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
  Yes$6 @ 63.0¢
• Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
  Yes$2.0k @ 51.0¢
• Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?Won
  Yes$324 @ 81.9¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
  Yes$4.2k @ 10.2¢
• Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Won
  No$166 @ 57.0¢
• Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Won
  No$301 @ 24.4¢
• Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Won
  No$141 @ 72.7¢
• Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
  No$276 @ 69.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.3k @ 20.4¢
• Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Won
  Yes$360 @ 54.0¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.8k @ 62.0¢
• US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Lost
  No$92 @ 36.8¢
• US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Won
  Yes$673 @ 70.2¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
  No$4.4k @ 80.0¢
• Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?Lost
  No$41 @ 81.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
  Yes$175 @ 7.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
  Yes$164 @ 75.8¢
• Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  Yes$426 @ 37.0¢
• Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  No$323 @ 23.8¢
• Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Lost
  No$123 @ 80.0¢
• Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
  No$177 @ 3.5¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Lost
  Yes$45 @ 9.0¢
• Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?Lost
  Yes$38 @ 26.6¢

Current positions

• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$8.5k @ 41.0¢
• Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$7.9k @ 53.2¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$5.7k @ 31.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$3.9k @ 35.9¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$3.2k @ 67.7¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 73.0¢
• Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
  Yes$2.1k @ 43.9¢
• Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 52.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
  Yes$2.0k @ 30.9¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 65.4¢
• Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 72.0¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 16.0¢
• Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
  Yes$1.1k @ 23.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
  No$1.0k @ 10.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
  Yes$805 @ 2.3¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
  Yes$666 @ 45.4¢
• Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
  Yes$345 @ 57.6¢
• Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$327 @ 11.1¢
• Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
  No$284 @ 42.9¢
• Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$262 @ 50.6¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
  Yes$226 @ 7.5¢
• Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Politics
  Yes$208 @ 71.0¢
• Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$160 @ 9.4¢
• Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$85 @ 35.0¢
• Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$23 @ 3.8¢
• Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
• Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
• Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
• Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
• Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 1.4¢