← Smart money
0x2b67…b814
SharpEdge
+8.7pp
ROI
+48%
Win rate
39% @ 29.9¢
Brier
0.121
Resolved
2541
Avg size
$105
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 48% (30/63) | -1% | 63 |
| Other | 36% (20/55) | +19% | 55 |
| Tech | 49% (19/39) | +12% | 39 |
| Sports | 16% (4/25) | -68% | 25 |
| Geopolitics | 22% (2/9) | -27% | 9 |
| Economy | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Science | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics63 bets
- Hit rate
- 48% (30/63)
- ROI
- -1%
- Other55 bets
- Hit rate
- 36% (20/55)
- ROI
- +19%
- Tech39 bets
- Hit rate
- 49% (19/39)
- ROI
- +12%
- Sports25 bets
- Hit rate
- 16% (4/25)
- ROI
- -68%
- Geopolitics9 bets
- Hit rate
- 22% (2/9)
- ROI
- -27%
- Economy2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Science1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
38% hit · 75/195- No$1.0k @ 88.7¢
- Yes$21 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$740 @ 16.6¢
- No$110 @ 22.0¢
- No$432 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$90 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 46.3¢
- Yes$143 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$362 @ 10.2¢
- Yes$138 @ 0.3¢
- No$1.5k @ 76.0¢
- Yes$74 @ 7.1¢
- Yes$140 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$6.8k @ 41.0¢
- No$4.7k @ 25.2¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 79.8¢
- Yes$30 @ 3.0¢
- No$45 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 29.1¢
- No$65 @ 29.5¢
- Yes$26 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$85 @ 5.7¢
- Yes$23 @ 4.5¢
- No$7 @ 49.0¢
- No$120 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$114 @ 0.2¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?WonYes$28 @ 81.0¢
- No$251 @ 12.0¢
- No$149 @ 77.9¢
- No$346 @ 7.8¢
- Yes$104 @ 6.9¢
- Yes$1.9k @ 1.8¢
- Yes$21 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$138 @ 1.4¢
- Yes$38 @ 3.8¢
- No$104 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$476 @ 23.3¢
- No$232 @ 4.6¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 44.1¢
- No$153 @ 26.9¢
- Yes$21 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$28 @ 14.1¢
- No$469 @ 86.3¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$16 @ 1.6¢
- No$1.5k @ 73.8¢
- Yes$454 @ 30.3¢
- No$351 @ 34.3¢
- No$641 @ 63.2¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 61.3¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$5.1k @ 51.5¢
- Yes$3.8k @ 42.7¢
- No$3.5k @ 24.4¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 21.0¢
- Yes$2.5k @ 36.4¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 23.4¢
- No$2.1k @ 81.0¢
- No$1.6k @ 73.0¢
- OpenAI$1.5k @ 10.2¢
- No$1.5k @ 22.5¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 9.2¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 22.9¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 12.2¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 20.8¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 73.9¢
- Yes$787 @ 43.9¢
- Yes$678 @ 14.9¢
- No$646 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$611 @ 20.4¢
- Yes$550 @ 9.2¢
- Yes$540 @ 13.5¢
- Yes$519 @ 5.2¢
- Yes$470 @ 47.0¢
- Yes$410 @ 20.5¢
- No$378 @ 54.4¢
- Yes$345 @ 3.0¢
- Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?TechYes$338 @ 19.3¢
- Yes$320 @ 7.3¢
- No$310 @ 31.0¢
- No$285 @ 57.0¢