← Smart money
0x2b67…b814
SharpEdge
+7.6pp
ROI
+46%
Win rate
37% @ 29.1¢
Brier
0.117
Resolved
2822
Avg size
$101
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tech | 44% (39/89) | +9% | 89 |
| Other | 31% (26/85) | +5% | 85 |
| Politics | 47% (36/77) | -3% | 77 |
| Sports | 19% (5/26) | -67% | 26 |
| Geopolitics | 25% (3/12) | +10% | 12 |
| Economy | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Science | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Business | 100% (1/1) | +163% | 1 |
- Tech89 bets
- Hit rate
- 44% (39/89)
- ROI
- +9%
- Other85 bets
- Hit rate
- 31% (26/85)
- ROI
- +5%
- Politics77 bets
- Hit rate
- 47% (36/77)
- ROI
- -3%
- Sports26 bets
- Hit rate
- 19% (5/26)
- ROI
- -67%
- Geopolitics12 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (3/12)
- ROI
- +10%
- Economy2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Science1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Business1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +163%
Track record
37% hit · 110/294- Yes$29 @ 29.7¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 94.8¢
- Yes$213 @ 43.1¢
- No$15 @ 3.5¢
- Yes$90 @ 6.6¢
- Yes$277 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
- Yes$216 @ 95.1¢
- No$80 @ 8.0¢
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?WonYes$11 @ 87.0¢
- No$150 @ 30.0¢
- Yes$226 @ 22.6¢
- No$52 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$13 @ 5.1¢
- Yes$51 @ 18.9¢
- Yes$10 @ 4.5¢
- Yes$20 @ 2.0¢
- No$238 @ 38.2¢
- Yes$18 @ 4.5¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 32.8¢
- No$28 @ 27.8¢
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?LostYes$1.7k @ 83.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 8.5¢
- Yes$432 @ 62.4¢
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?LostYes$250 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$500 @ 50.0¢
- No$96 @ 1.1¢
- Yes$41 @ 34.3¢
- Yes$243 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$149 @ 3.3¢
- No$497 @ 82.0¢
- No$1.3k @ 93.9¢
- Yes$617 @ 93.1¢
- Yes$792 @ 39.6¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?LostYes$180 @ 9.9¢
- Yes$6 @ 34.9¢
- No$5.2k @ 99.5¢
- Yes$181 @ 4.5¢
- Yes$300 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$329 @ 7.9¢
- Yes$524 @ 18.5¢
- No$360 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$58 @ 38.6¢
- Yes$37 @ 34.9¢
- Yes$57 @ 51.5¢
- Yes$315 @ 35.0¢
- Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?WonYes$995 @ 85.6¢
- No$1.0k @ 88.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- Yes$8.5k @ 10.9¢
- Yes$5.3k @ 43.9¢
- Yes$5.2k @ 12.4¢
- Yes$4.2k @ 47.7¢
- No$4.1k @ 51.5¢
- No$3.4k @ 24.4¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 38.6¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 10.2¢
- OpenAI$2.5k @ 9.2¢
- No$2.3k @ 8.5¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 22.6¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 46.3¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 11.5¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 32.8¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 50.5¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 7.1¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 60.8¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 44.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 14.3¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 7.4¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 54.0¢
- No$970 @ 7.4¢
- No$900 @ 23.7¢
- No$888 @ 52.6¢
- Botic van de Zandschulp$839 @ 16.8¢
- No$791 @ 13.9¢
- Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyNo$758 @ 6.9¢
- Yes$754 @ 3.8¢
- Yes$678 @ 14.9¢
- Yes$677 @ 27.3¢