← Smart money
0x2b2d…1031
ProfitableEdge
+35.5pp
ROI
+130%
Win rate
61% @ 25.3¢
Brier
0.238
Resolved
902
Avg size
$331
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 25% (2/8) | +132% | 8 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +277% | 1 |
- Politics8 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (2/8)
- ROI
- +132%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +277%
Track record
33% hit · 3/9| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $777 | 0.5¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $5.7k | 0.8¢ | Lost |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | Yes | $340 | 26.5¢ | Won |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? | Yes | $94 | 3.7¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $245.5k | 36.3¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | $24.5k | 25.2¢ | Lost |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $8.0k | 58.8¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026? | Yes | $341 | 30.5¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $13.0k | 24.4¢ | Lost |
- Yes$777 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$5.7k @ 0.8¢
- Yes$340 @ 26.5¢
- Yes$94 @ 3.7¢
- Yes$245.5k @ 36.3¢
- No$24.5k @ 25.2¢
- No$8.0k @ 58.8¢
- Yes$341 @ 30.5¢
- Yes$13.0k @ 24.4¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $225.9k | 11.0¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | No | $212.9k | 7.4¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $9.5k | 0.3¢ |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | Economy | No | $2.9k | 97.4¢ |
- Yes$225.9k @ 11.0¢
- No$212.9k @ 7.4¢
- Yes$9.5k @ 0.3¢
- No$2.9k @ 97.4¢