0x2aac…dfad

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2aacd459eaea420eb0d7b94c7b03238786c6dfad
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.8pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

58% @ 55.4¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

1674

Avg size

$66

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (293/584)	-4%	584
Politics	54% (71/131)	+24%	131
Geopolitics	64% (14/22)	+16%	22
Sports	55% (6/11)	+90%	11
Tech	86% (6/7)	+18%	7
Economy	71% (5/7)	-22%	7

Other584 bets
Hit rate
50% (293/584)
ROI
-4%
Politics131 bets
Hit rate
54% (71/131)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
64% (14/22)
ROI
+16%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
+90%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+18%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
-22%

Track record

52% hit · 395/762

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$10	17.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$200	87.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?	No	$20	83.9¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$339	76.3¢	Lost
Will Chris Murphy vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?	No	$53	75.7¢	Won
Will Chris Murphy vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?	Yes	$18	24.9¢	Lost
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$10	8.5¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	23.5¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$85	77.9¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?	No	$20	79.1¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$8	82.0¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?	Yes	$10	68.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$5	37.0¢	Lost
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	No	$10	88.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$70	44.8¢	Lost
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$1	81.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$41	64.2¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	No	$2	1.2¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?	Yes	$20	40.2¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?	Yes	$152	85.8¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$5	43.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$20	61.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$20	40.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$5	26.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$20	40.9¢	Lost
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?	Yes	$18	56.0¢	Lost
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	$5	71.0¢	Lost
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 13% and 16% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$4	23.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$25	36.6¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$30	20.0¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$5	39.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?	Yes	$5	31.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$110	81.7¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$320	74.9¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$41	66.5¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$10	34.9¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$27	13.9¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	Yes	$25	62.0¢	Won
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	No	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will the New England Patriots win the AFC East?	Yes	$20	84.9¢	Won
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	No	$120	68.9¢	Lost
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	$330	72.4¢	Won
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in March?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	48.0¢	Won
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?	No	$20	78.0¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$20	70.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$20	63.0¢	Lost

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$200 @ 87.5¢
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?Won
No$20 @ 83.9¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$339 @ 76.3¢
Will Chris Murphy vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?Won
No$53 @ 75.7¢
Will Chris Murphy vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 24.9¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.5¢
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.5¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$85 @ 77.9¢
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 79.1¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$8 @ 82.0¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 68.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 37.0¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Won
No$10 @ 88.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$70 @ 44.8¢
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Won
Yes$1 @ 81.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$41 @ 64.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Lost
No$2 @ 1.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 40.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?Lost
Yes$152 @ 85.8¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$5 @ 43.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$20 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$20 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 26.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 40.9¢
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 56.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
No$5 @ 71.0¢
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 13% and 16% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 23.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$25 @ 36.6¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 20.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$5 @ 39.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Lost
Yes$5 @ 31.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$110 @ 81.7¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$320 @ 74.9¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$41 @ 66.5¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.9¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$27 @ 13.9¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Won
Yes$25 @ 62.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Lost
No$10 @ 26.0¢
Will the New England Patriots win the AFC East?Won
Yes$20 @ 84.9¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Lost
No$120 @ 68.9¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Won
Yes$330 @ 72.4¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in March?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 48.0¢
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?Won
No$20 @ 78.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$20 @ 70.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 63.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.8k	67.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	72.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	8.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	61.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$330	72.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$312	52.2¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$310	73.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$300	68.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$300	37.6¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$211	17.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$208	84.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$200	77.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	Politics	No	$200	67.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$135	57.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$120	32.6¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$110	54.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$110	47.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$110	28.1¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$105	56.4¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$101	50.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$100	80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$100	90.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$100	83.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$99	55.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$80	7.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$50	69.0¢
Will Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East?	Sports	Yes	$40	70.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$31	65.7¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$30	48.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$30	45.4¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.8k @ 67.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 72.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 8.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$1.1k @ 61.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$330 @ 72.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$312 @ 52.2¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$310 @ 73.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?Economy
Yes$300 @ 68.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$300 @ 37.6¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?Economy
Yes$211 @ 17.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$208 @ 84.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?Economy
Yes$200 @ 77.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics
No$200 @ 67.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$135 @ 57.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$120 @ 32.6¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$110 @ 54.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$110 @ 47.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$110 @ 28.1¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$105 @ 56.4¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$101 @ 50.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Economy
Yes$100 @ 80.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 90.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 83.9¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Economy
Yes$99 @ 55.6¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Economy
Yes$80 @ 7.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 69.0¢
Will Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East?Sports
Yes$40 @ 70.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$31 @ 65.7¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$30 @ 48.7¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 45.4¢