← Smart money
0x28c3…da06
ProfitableEdge
+29.0pp
ROI
+38%
Win rate
70% @ 41.2¢
Brier
0.233
Resolved
1147
Avg size
$264
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 45% (27/60) | +40% | 60 |
| Politics | 67% (4/6) | +8% | 6 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/5) | -100% | 5 |
| Crypto | 33% (1/3) | -94% | 3 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +376% | 1 |
- Other60 bets
- Hit rate
- 45% (27/60)
- ROI
- +40%
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- +8%
- Geopolitics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/5)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -94%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +376%
Track record
44% hit · 33/75- Yes$1.7k @ 67.0¢
- Yes$14.2k @ 89.0¢
- Yes$3.2k @ 54.0¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 33.0¢
- No$525 @ 35.0¢
- No$1 @ 1.7¢
- No$2.0k @ 43.0¢
- Yes$80 @ 7.1¢
- Yes$780 @ 52.0¢
- Yes$710 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$51 @ 7.0¢
- No$12.6k @ 84.0¢
- Yes$10.9k @ 84.0¢
- Yes$771 @ 35.4¢
- Yes$8.6k @ 86.0¢
- Yes$260 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$825 @ 55.0¢
- No$202 @ 16.0¢
- No$100 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$704 @ 20.7¢
- Yes$297 @ 9.9¢
- No$2 @ 1.6¢
- Iowa Hawkeyes$436 @ 87.2¢
- Yes$714 @ 72.0¢
- No$1.5k @ 36.9¢
- Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
- No$294 @ 12.5¢
- Yes$500 @ 38.1¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 35.0¢
- Yes$960 @ 48.0¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 15.8¢
- Yes$859 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$799 @ 14.2¢
- No$24.1k @ 85.0¢
- Yes$604 @ 21.6¢
- Something$135 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$5.4k @ 70.3¢
- Yes$350 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$100 @ 3.6¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 57.0¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 21.0¢
- Yes$253 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 10.0¢
- No$391 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 33.7¢
- No$8.4k @ 79.0¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 80.0¢
- No$2.1k @ 34.6¢
- No$232 @ 33.6¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $518 | 34.0¢ |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $499 | 1.4¢ |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $395 | 0.8¢ |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $300 | 1.0¢ |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $296 | 0.7¢ |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $253 | 23.0¢ |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $210 | 2.1¢ |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Politics | No | $19 | 88.0¢ |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Crypto | No | $9 | 89.0¢ |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Economy | Yes | $5 | 34.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $4 | 27.0¢ |
| China coup attempt before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 3.3¢ |
- Yes$518 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$499 @ 1.4¢
- Yes$395 @ 0.8¢
- Yes$300 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$296 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$253 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$210 @ 2.1¢
- No$19 @ 88.0¢
- No$9 @ 89.0¢
- US recession by end of 2026?EconomyYes$5 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 27.0¢
- China coup attempt before 2027?PoliticsYes$1 @ 3.3¢