0x2783…8321

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other25 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (17/25)

  ROI

  +15%

• Politics6 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (4/6)

  ROI

  +18%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  -15%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  -64%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +47%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +14%

• Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
  Yes$43 @ 86.8¢
• Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
  No$3 @ 62.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
• Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Lost
  No$2 @ 56.6¢
• Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Won
  No$1 @ 53.4¢
• Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 60.5¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$813 @ 85.6¢
• Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?Won
  Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$7 @ 68.3¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$16 @ 78.5¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 71.4¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Won
  No$1 @ 62.0¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 34.0¢
• Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
  No$1 @ 52.0¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$8 @ 80.0¢
• Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?Won
  No$44 @ 87.9¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
  No$1 @ 8.6¢
• Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
  No$1 @ 63.0¢
• Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Won
  Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
• Spurs vs. ThunderWon
  Spurs$2 @ 47.5¢
• Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 46.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$7 @ 72.0¢
• Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?Won
  No$1 @ 34.0¢
• WTT - Men's Singles: Japan vs ChinaLost
  Japan$1 @ 39.0¢
• Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Won
  No$1 @ 56.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
  No$9 @ 89.9¢
• Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Won
  No$1 @ 27.0¢
• Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 74.1¢
• Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?Won
  Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
  No$9 @ 85.0¢
• Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Won
  Yes$447 @ 89.4¢
• Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?Won
  Yes$100 @ 77.4¢
• Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
  No$3 @ 68.2¢
• Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Won
  No$1 @ 57.0¢
• Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 28.0¢
• Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$9 @ 88.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 49.0¢

Current positions

• Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 50.0¢
• Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 50.0¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$129 @ 86.4¢
• Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Economy
  Yes$109 @ 58.5¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$17 @ 86.0¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$10 @ 95.2¢
• Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Politics
  Yes$10 @ 96.5¢
• US defaults on debt by 2027?Politics
  No$10 @ 97.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$9 @ 86.0¢
• Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
  Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
• Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
  Yes$9 @ 85.0¢
• Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Economy
  No$7 @ 60.2¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 45.0¢
• Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?Politics
  No$5 @ 97.5¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
  No$4 @ 70.4¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$1 @ 85.9¢
• Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?—
  Yes$1 @ 64.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$1 @ 80.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1 @ 77.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1 @ 77.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$1 @ 66.0¢
• China x Philippines military clash before 2027?—
  No$1 @ 74.0¢
• Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1 @ 87.0¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1 @ 87.0¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics
  No$1 @ 87.0¢
• Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?—
  Yes$1 @ 87.0¢
• OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
  No$1 @ 79.0¢
• Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
  No$1 @ 73.8¢
• Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
  No$1 @ 78.0¢