0x2783…8321

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x2783e38aa7b7d1ba8a7f3cef36bed993f3138321
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+29.4pp

ROI

+101%

Win rate

83% @ 54.1¢

Brier

0.261

Resolved

145

Avg size

$47

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (17/25)	+15%	25
Politics	67% (4/6)	+18%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-15%	3
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-64%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+47%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+14%	1

Other25 bets
Hit rate
68% (17/25)
ROI
+15%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+18%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-15%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-64%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+47%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%

Track record

64% hit · 25/39

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$43	86.8¢	Won
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$3	62.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	69.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	$2	56.6¢	Lost
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?	No	$1	53.4¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$2	60.5¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$813	85.6¢	Won
Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$7	68.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$16	78.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	71.4¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	$1	62.0¢	Won
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	Yes	$1	34.0¢	Lost
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	$1	52.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$8	80.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	No	$44	87.9¢	Won
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	$1	8.6¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$1	63.0¢	Lost
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	$2	47.5¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?	Yes	$1	46.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$7	72.0¢	Won
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?	No	$1	34.0¢	Won
WTT - Men's Singles: Japan vs China	Japan	$1	39.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	$1	56.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$9	89.9¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?	Yes	$100	77.4¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	$1	27.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$10	74.1¢	Lost
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Yes	$1	69.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$9	85.0¢	Won
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$537	89.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$3	68.2¢	Won
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	No	$1	57.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	$1	62.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	49.0¢	Won

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Won
Yes$43 @ 86.8¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
No$3 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Lost
No$2 @ 56.6¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?Won
No$1 @ 53.4¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$2 @ 60.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$813 @ 85.6¢
Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?Won
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$7 @ 68.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$16 @ 78.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 71.4¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Won
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 34.0¢
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Won
No$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$8 @ 80.0¢
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?Won
No$44 @ 87.9¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
No$1 @ 8.6¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
No$1 @ 63.0¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Spurs vs. ThunderWon
Spurs$2 @ 47.5¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?Lost
Yes$1 @ 46.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$7 @ 72.0¢
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?Won
No$1 @ 34.0¢
WTT - Men's Singles: Japan vs ChinaLost
Japan$1 @ 39.0¢
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Won
No$1 @ 56.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$9 @ 89.9¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?Won
Yes$100 @ 77.4¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Won
No$1 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$10 @ 74.1¢
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?Won
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$9 @ 85.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Won
Yes$537 @ 89.5¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
No$3 @ 68.2¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Won
No$1 @ 57.0¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 49.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Economy	Yes	$17.5k	92.1¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Economy	No	$4.3k	86.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	91.8¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$9	85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1	24.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1	77.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	77.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Economy	No	$1	54.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1	65.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1	60.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	No	$1	68.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1	47.0¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Tech	No	$1	10.0¢

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Economy
Yes$17.5k @ 92.1¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Economy
No$4.3k @ 86.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 91.8¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$9 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1 @ 24.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$1 @ 77.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 77.0¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Economy
No$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1 @ 60.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
No$1 @ 68.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1 @ 47.0¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Tech
No$1 @ 10.0¢