0x2675…2374

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x267568e60bccc61e876fbb3607fba7c47ee12374
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.6pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

38% @ 33.0¢

Brier

0.195

Resolved

1514

Avg size

$22

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (181/489)	+7%	489
Sports	15% (2/13)	-15%	13
Politics	88% (7/8)	+70%	8
Culture	33% (2/6)	+36%	6
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+12%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+50%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+133%	1

Other489 bets
Hit rate
37% (181/489)
ROI
+7%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
15% (2/13)
ROI
-15%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+70%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+36%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+12%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+50%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+133%

Track record

38% hit · 197/523

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?	Yes	$602	80.1¢	Won
Ye divorce before April?	Yes	$32	4.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?	Yes	$173	69.0¢	Won
Will "Hamnet" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?	Yes	$92	45.8¢	Lost
Celtics vs. Magic	Magic	$9	36.0¢	Won
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	$115	31.8¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Pacers	Pacers	$15	34.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?	Yes	$56	40.0¢	Lost
South Korean President impeached by Friday?	Yes	$38	38.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$65	54.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$52	52.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$62	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$63	63.0¢	Won
Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $20-25m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$22	17.5¢	Lost
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?	Yes	$9	10.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$49	49.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	90k	$11	54.0¢	Lost
Will Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$8	7.9¢	Lost
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?	Yes	$87	19.0¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar today?	No	$80	40.0¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar today?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Won
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?	Yes	$239	39.5¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?	No	$18	36.0¢	Lost
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$37	18.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?	Putin	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$90	8.5¢	Lost
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files?	Yes	$8	9.0¢	Won
Super Bowl LIX Winner	Eagles	$49	49.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?	No	$27	30.0¢	Lost
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?	Yes	$32	32.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$100	40.0¢	Won
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	Yes	$291	30.0¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$72	30.6¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	30.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$49	49.0¢	Won
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$98	9.8¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$70	35.0¢	Lost
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February?	Yes	$39	52.0¢	Won
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?	Yes	$11	3.7¢	Lost
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?	Yes	$26	17.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Russia before July?	Yes	$30	30.0¢	Lost
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings	Red Wings	$9	45.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$1	10.5¢	Lost
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?	Yes	$50	30.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?	Yes	$114	57.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24?	Yes	$46	46.0¢	Won

Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?Won
Yes$602 @ 80.1¢
Ye divorce before April?Lost
Yes$32 @ 4.7¢
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Won
Yes$173 @ 69.0¢
Will "Hamnet" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Lost
Yes$92 @ 45.8¢
Celtics vs. MagicWon
Magic$9 @ 36.0¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?Lost
Yes$115 @ 31.8¢
Thunder vs. PacersLost
Pacers$15 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?Lost
Yes$56 @ 40.0¢
South Korean President impeached by Friday?Lost
Yes$38 @ 38.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$65 @ 54.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$52 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$63 @ 63.0¢
Will 'Nosferatu' gross between $20-25m on 5-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$22 @ 17.5¢
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?Lost
Yes$9 @ 10.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$49 @ 49.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?Lost
90k$11 @ 54.0¢
Will Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Golden Globes?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.9¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?Won
Yes$87 @ 19.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Lost
No$80 @ 40.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Won
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?Lost
Yes$239 @ 39.5¢
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Lost
No$18 @ 36.0¢
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $70-75m opening weekend?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$37 @ 18.5¢
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?Lost
Putin$50 @ 25.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$90 @ 8.5¢
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files?Won
Yes$8 @ 9.0¢
Super Bowl LIX WinnerWon
Eagles$49 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?Lost
No$27 @ 30.0¢
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Won
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 40.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Won
Yes$291 @ 30.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$72 @ 30.6¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$49 @ 49.0¢
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$98 @ 9.8¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February?Won
Yes$39 @ 52.0¢
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.7¢
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?Won
Yes$26 @ 17.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump visit Russia before July?Lost
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢
Maple Leafs vs. Red WingsLost
Red Wings$9 @ 45.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.5¢
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?Lost
Yes$50 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Won
Yes$114 @ 57.0¢
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24?Won
Yes$46 @ 46.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$442	26.4¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$302	14.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$200	10.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$200	27.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$198	45.0¢
Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 50k?	Culture	Yes	$168	57.0¢
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$165	55.0¢
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$121	43.1¢
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$112	56.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$110	55.0¢
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$100	40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$100	46.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$94	23.6¢
Will Sam Rockwell win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$90	15.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$84	28.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Culture	Yes	$81	34.0¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$81	27.0¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$78	13.0¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$72	29.0¢
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$72	24.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$70	39.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$66	22.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$66	13.1¢
Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$63	63.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$57	57.0¢
Will The Weeknd be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Culture	Yes	$54	27.0¢
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	Culture	Yes	$54	36.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$52	26.0¢
Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$52	26.0¢
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?	Culture	No	$43	58.1¢

Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$442 @ 26.4¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$302 @ 14.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$200 @ 10.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$200 @ 27.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
Yes$198 @ 45.0¢
Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 50k?Culture
Yes$168 @ 57.0¢
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?Culture
Yes$165 @ 55.0¢
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$121 @ 43.1¢
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$112 @ 56.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$110 @ 55.0¢
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Culture
Yes$100 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$100 @ 46.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$94 @ 23.6¢
Will Sam Rockwell win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$90 @ 15.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$84 @ 28.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Culture
Yes$81 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$81 @ 27.0¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
Yes$78 @ 13.0¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$72 @ 29.0¢
Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$72 @ 24.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$70 @ 39.0¢
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$66 @ 22.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$66 @ 13.1¢
Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?Culture
Yes$63 @ 63.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$57 @ 57.0¢
Will The Weeknd be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Culture
Yes$54 @ 27.0¢
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Culture
Yes$54 @ 36.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?Culture
Yes$52 @ 26.0¢
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?Culture
No$43 @ 58.1¢