0x264d…6f2b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x264d771891838edb443cb2d39fc4aa1bb58a6f2b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.3pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

73% @ 59.8¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

569

Avg size

$111

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (66/131)	+22%	131
Economy	64% (7/11)	+19%	11
Politics	40% (2/5)	-23%	5
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+7%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	-27%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other131 bets
Hit rate
50% (66/131)
ROI
+22%
Economy11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+19%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-23%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+7%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-27%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 77/153

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?	Yes	$28	88.0¢	Won
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.4k	32.2¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	Yes	$125	8.6¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?	Yes	$95	39.4¢	Lost
Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024?	No	$30	85.4¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$544	50.0¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?	Yes	$3	33.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.8k	85.1¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?	No	$196	89.1¢	Won
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner	Carlos Alcaraz	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Australian Open Men's: Francesco Maestrelli vs Novak Djokovic	Maestrelli	$3	2.6¢	Lost
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?	Yes	$2	8.3¢	Lost
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Under 2.5	$20	52.0¢	Won
Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December?	Yes	$51	57.8¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova	Potapova	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in July?	Yes	$5	4.6¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?	Yes	$100	38.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$272	85.2¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March?	Yes	$526	33.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$260	84.0¢	Won
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur	Cameron Norrie	$5	11.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Under 2.5	$25	83.0¢	Won
Corentin Moutet vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Over 2.5	$45	48.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February?	Yes	$422	35.4¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the December meeting?	Yes	$220	90.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?	Yes	$219	38.9¢	Lost
Will Flamengo win in regular time against PSG?	Yes	$100	20.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$573	86.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$396	0.3¢	Lost
Miami Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Joao Fonseca	Joao Fonseca	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in March?	Yes	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?	Yes	$5	22.0¢	Won
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%?	No	$203	73.0¢	Won
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%?	Yes	$618	38.6¢	Lost
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknech	Joao Fonseca	$150	63.5¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May?	Yes	$10	69.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in April?	No	$158	78.2¢	Won
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?	Yes	$737	39.6¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$1.6k	81.9¢	Won
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	Alcaraz	$100	82.0¢	Won
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June?	Yes	$3	8.5¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?	Yes	$48	83.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	Yes	$160	30.3¢	Lost
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien	Zverev	$100	68.0¢	Won
Will the US add more than 250k jobs in April?	Yes	$2	3.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$100	44.6¢	Lost
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?	No	$36	59.7¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January?	Yes	$47	57.7¢	Lost

1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?Won
Yes$28 @ 88.0¢
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 32.2¢
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Lost
Yes$125 @ 8.6¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?Lost
Yes$95 @ 39.4¢
Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024?Won
No$30 @ 85.4¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$544 @ 50.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?Lost
Yes$3 @ 33.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 85.1¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?Won
No$196 @ 89.1¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik SinnerLost
Carlos Alcaraz$1 @ 3.0¢
Australian Open Men's: Francesco Maestrelli vs Novak DjokovicLost
Maestrelli$3 @ 2.6¢
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.3¢
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5Won
Under 2.5$20 @ 52.0¢
Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December?Won
Yes$51 @ 57.8¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in March?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia PotapovaLost
Potapova$0 @ 5.0¢
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in July?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.6¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?Lost
Yes$100 @ 38.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Won
Yes$272 @ 85.2¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% or less in March?Won
Yes$526 @ 33.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$260 @ 84.0¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de MinaurLost
Cameron Norrie$5 @ 11.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Won
Under 2.5$25 @ 83.0¢
Corentin Moutet vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Lost
Over 2.5$45 @ 48.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February?Lost
Yes$422 @ 35.4¢
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the December meeting?Won
Yes$220 @ 90.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?Lost
Yes$219 @ 38.9¢
Will Flamengo win in regular time against PSG?Lost
Yes$100 @ 20.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$573 @ 86.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$396 @ 0.3¢
Miami Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Joao FonsecaWon
Joao Fonseca$100 @ 88.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in March?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?Won
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%?Won
No$203 @ 73.0¢
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.6% and 0.8%?Lost
Yes$618 @ 38.6¢
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur RinderknechWon
Joao Fonseca$150 @ 63.5¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May?Won
Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in April?Won
No$158 @ 78.2¢
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?Lost
Yes$737 @ 39.6¢
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 81.9¢
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-AliassimeWon
Alcaraz$100 @ 82.0¢
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.5¢
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$48 @ 83.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?Lost
Yes$160 @ 30.3¢
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Learner TienWon
Zverev$100 @ 68.0¢
Will the US add more than 250k jobs in April?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$100 @ 44.6¢
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?Lost
No$36 @ 59.7¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in January?Lost
Yes$47 @ 57.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	73.0¢
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$1.4k	85.1¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Economy	Yes	$1000	71.5¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	Geopolitics	No	$926	83.0¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$498	27.6¢
GTA VI released by October 31?	Culture	Yes	$100	26.7¢
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$60	7.2¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	10.1¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$13	4.8¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 73.0¢
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$1.4k @ 85.1¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?Economy
Yes$1000 @ 71.5¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?Geopolitics
No$926 @ 83.0¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?Geopolitics
Yes$498 @ 27.6¢
GTA VI released by October 31?Culture
Yes$100 @ 26.7¢
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$60 @ 7.2¢
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 10.1¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$13 @ 4.8¢