0x264c…baca

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x264cbb7263b0c336c58fb5a5de1773896e6bbaca
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.0pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

58% @ 43.8¢

Brier

0.212

Resolved

1458

Avg size

$287

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (31/76)	-44%	76
Sports	50% (17/34)	+24%	34
Politics	64% (18/28)	+9%	28
Geopolitics	40% (2/5)	-60%	5
Economy	50% (1/2)	+58%	2
Business	100% (2/2)	+56%	2

Other76 bets
Hit rate
41% (31/76)
ROI
-44%
Sports34 bets
Hit rate
50% (17/34)
ROI
+24%
Politics28 bets
Hit rate
64% (18/28)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-60%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+58%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+56%

Track record

48% hit · 71/147

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 29?	Yes	$886	86.8¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?	Yes	$17	82.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11?	No	$249	3.1¢	Lost
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	$844	84.0¢	Won
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$775	77.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$91	8.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$50.7k	72.9¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 18?	Yes	$344	65.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Yes	$7.7k	62.4¢	Won
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 32 and 34 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$14.1k	79.3¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28?	No	$305	71.0¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?	Yes	$369	73.0¢	Won
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	No	$680	41.7¢	Won
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	Yes	$782	67.5¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	No	$1.7k	10.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$11.6k	87.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$9.9k	15.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	$437	42.0¢	Lost
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get at least 40 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	No	$340	34.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 August 24-30?	No	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10?	Yes	$51	5.1¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	No	$3.0k	58.3¢	Won
Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$29	48.0¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 19?	Yes	$1.2k	70.4¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$4	74.6¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$17.6k	25.8¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?	No	$1.3k	79.7¢	Won
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	$2.8k	43.4¢	Won
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$1.6k	77.5¢	Won
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	$326	32.5¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 28?	No	$952	86.8¢	Won
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$780	78.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	$510	87.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$4.0k	80.0¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 29?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	$4.2k	78.4¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 12?	Yes	$686	50.4¢	Won
Will Hunter Goodman hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	$10	7.9¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 2?	Yes	$74	69.0¢	Won
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 28?	No	$160	11.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 10?	Yes	$35	3.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?	No	$4	70.6¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?	No	$717	71.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?	Yes	$827	40.4¢	Lost
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 30 and 32 million views on week 1?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	$96	0.4¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026?	Yes	$551	56.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	$709	77.7¢	Won

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 29?Won
Yes$886 @ 86.8¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?Won
Yes$17 @ 82.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11?Lost
No$249 @ 3.1¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsWon
Hanwha Life Esports$844 @ 84.0¢
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$775 @ 77.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$91 @ 8.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$50.7k @ 72.9¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 18?Lost
Yes$344 @ 65.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?Won
Yes$7.7k @ 62.4¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 32 and 34 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$14.1k @ 79.3¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28?Won
No$305 @ 71.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22?Won
Yes$369 @ 73.0¢
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?Won
No$680 @ 41.7¢
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?Lost
Yes$782 @ 67.5¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Lost
No$1.7k @ 10.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$11.6k @ 87.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$9.9k @ 15.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Lost
Yes$437 @ 42.0¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get at least 40 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Lost
No$340 @ 34.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 August 24-30?Lost
No$5 @ 1.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 10?Lost
Yes$51 @ 5.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?Won
No$3.0k @ 58.3¢
Will New People (NL) win the fourth-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$29 @ 48.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 19?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 70.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$4 @ 74.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$17.6k @ 25.8¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 19?Won
No$1.3k @ 79.7¢
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 43.4¢
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 77.5¢
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Lost
Yes$326 @ 32.5¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 28?Won
No$952 @ 86.8¢
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$780 @ 78.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Lost
Yes$510 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$4.0k @ 80.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on May 29?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 78.4¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 12?Won
Yes$686 @ 50.4¢
Will Hunter Goodman hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.9¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 2?Won
Yes$74 @ 69.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 28?Lost
No$160 @ 11.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 10?Lost
Yes$35 @ 3.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?Won
No$4 @ 70.6¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?Won
No$717 @ 71.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?Lost
Yes$827 @ 40.4¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 30 and 32 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Lost
Yes$96 @ 0.4¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 1 2026?Won
Yes$551 @ 56.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Won
No$709 @ 77.7¢

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