0x24aa…7e0a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x24aab9f0ffe38a718f988760f5d27c8418317e0a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

33% @ 25.3¢

Brier

0.111

Resolved

126

Avg size

$50

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (8/20)	+45%	20
Sports	64% (7/11)	+30%	11
Tech	33% (3/9)	-18%	9
Politics	14% (1/7)	-81%	7
Business	100% (2/2)	+12%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+203%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other20 bets
Hit rate
40% (8/20)
ROI
+45%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+30%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-18%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-81%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+12%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+203%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

42% hit · 22/52

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$20	67.0¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$128	5.1¢	Lost
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$40	64.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$47	23.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$30	71.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$864	38.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$558	31.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	$200	10.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$20	61.0¢	Lost
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$204	89.3¢	Won
Spurs vs. Warriors	Warriors	$10	0.7¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$31	25.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$303	4.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$1.4k	37.2¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$16	4.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$80	26.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$103	66.6¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$154	77.0¢	Won
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Won
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$20	33.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$50	4.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	$191	63.6¢	Won
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	44.0¢	Won
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	$458	57.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$10	56.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$70	70.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$225	43.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$168	0.8¢	Lost
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	$7	1.3¢	Lost
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan?	Yes	$10	57.0¢	Won
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$41	52.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$20	77.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$329	70.1¢	Won
Nets vs. Pistons	Nets	$3	3.0¢	Won
Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Yes	$26	8.7¢	Lost
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$5	1.6¢	Lost
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	Yes	$36	33.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$123	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$248	1.5¢	Lost
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	No	$4	2.4¢	Lost
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$51	0.5¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	$217	86.9¢	Won
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	$35	17.1¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$389	38.0¢	Lost
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	$177	59.0¢	Lost
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	$70	7.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$75	51.7¢	Won

Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$20 @ 67.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$128 @ 5.1¢
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$40 @ 64.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$47 @ 23.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$30 @ 71.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$864 @ 38.4¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$558 @ 31.0¢
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Lost
Yes$200 @ 10.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 61.0¢
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$204 @ 89.3¢
Spurs vs. WarriorsLost
Warriors$10 @ 0.7¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$31 @ 25.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$303 @ 4.8¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 37.2¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$80 @ 26.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 66.6¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$154 @ 77.0¢
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?Won
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$20 @ 33.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 4.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Won
No$191 @ 63.6¢
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$0 @ 44.0¢
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Lost
No$458 @ 57.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$70 @ 70.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$225 @ 43.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$168 @ 0.8¢
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.3¢
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan?Won
Yes$10 @ 57.0¢
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?Won
Yes$41 @ 52.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$20 @ 77.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$329 @ 70.1¢
Nets vs. PistonsWon
Nets$3 @ 3.0¢
Will a hurricane form by May 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 8.7¢
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.6¢
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?Won
Yes$36 @ 33.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$123 @ 1.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$248 @ 1.5¢
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Lost
No$4 @ 2.4¢
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$51 @ 0.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?Won
No$217 @ 86.9¢
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Won
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Lost
No$35 @ 17.1¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$389 @ 38.0¢
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Lost
Yes$177 @ 59.0¢
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Lost
Yes$70 @ 7.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$75 @ 51.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$594	32.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$560	56.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$528	66.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$219	73.0¢
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$145	85.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$110	27.5¢
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Science	No	$100	92.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$93	93.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$50	17.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$47	39.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Tech	No	$40	41.0¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Politics	Yes	$39	38.9¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$23	78.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Tech	No	$22	21.8¢
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$20	6.1¢
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$20	6.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Tech	No	$2	29.0¢

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$594 @ 32.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$560 @ 56.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$528 @ 66.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$219 @ 73.0¢
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?Business
No$145 @ 85.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$110 @ 27.5¢
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Science
No$100 @ 92.0¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$93 @ 93.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$50 @ 17.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$47 @ 39.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Tech
No$40 @ 41.0¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Politics
Yes$39 @ 38.9¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?Business
No$23 @ 78.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Tech
No$22 @ 21.8¢
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$20 @ 6.1¢
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$20 @ 6.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Tech
No$2 @ 29.0¢