← Smart money
0x2396…57dc
SharpEdge
+9.4pp
ROI
+17%
Win rate
56% @ 46.8¢
Brier
0.195
Resolved
646
Avg size
$15
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 56% (35/63) | +16% | 63 |
| Other | 51% (31/61) | -0% | 61 |
| Sports | 47% (8/17) | +4% | 17 |
| Geopolitics | 20% (1/5) | -37% | 5 |
| Crypto | 60% (3/5) | +49% | 5 |
- Politics63 bets
- Hit rate
- 56% (35/63)
- ROI
- +16%
- Other61 bets
- Hit rate
- 51% (31/61)
- ROI
- -0%
- Sports17 bets
- Hit rate
- 47% (8/17)
- ROI
- +4%
- Geopolitics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 20% (1/5)
- ROI
- -37%
- Crypto5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +49%
Track record
52% hit · 78/151- Yes$45 @ 19.0¢
- No$40 @ 93.5¢
- Yes$88 @ 37.6¢
- No$194 @ 67.0¢
- No$56 @ 63.9¢
- Yes$3 @ 24.2¢
- Yes$4 @ 72.0¢
- No$24 @ 94.8¢
- No$34 @ 95.3¢
- Yes$2 @ 4.2¢
- Yes$4 @ 45.0¢
- No$9 @ 21.6¢
- Yes$121 @ 81.5¢
- No$76 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$53 @ 33.3¢
- No$392 @ 89.0¢
- No$9 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$243 @ 20.1¢
- No$16 @ 70.0¢
- Yes$65 @ 21.2¢
- No$10 @ 82.7¢
- Yes$28 @ 22.2¢
- No$45 @ 80.1¢
- Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$16 @ 82.3¢
- Yes$4 @ 89.9¢
- No$170 @ 83.5¢
- Yes$28 @ 9.6¢
- No$5 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$23 @ 23.1¢
- No$702 @ 58.3¢
- Yes$143 @ 29.0¢
- No$158 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 4.7¢
- No$26 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$51 @ 18.1¢
- No$33 @ 71.1¢
- Yes$8 @ 20.5¢
- No$77 @ 40.1¢
- Yes$70 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$54 @ 35.9¢
- Yes$8 @ 9.4¢
- Yes$86 @ 61.7¢
- No$4 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 7.9¢
- No$18 @ 6.7¢
- No$86 @ 89.3¢
- No$6 @ 19.4¢
- Yes$4 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$13 @ 57.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $800 | 72.3¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | No | $658 | 79.8¢ |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | No | $247 | 93.0¢ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Science | No | $194 | 91.5¢ |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | No | $193 | 71.0¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $120 | 50.0¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | No | $120 | 50.0¢ |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Politics | No | $112 | 64.7¢ |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $88 | 65.0¢ |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $69 | 90.5¢ |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Culture | No | $68 | 87.4¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Politics | No | $38 | 84.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $29 | 25.0¢ |
- No$800 @ 72.3¢
- No$658 @ 79.8¢
- No$247 @ 93.0¢
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?ScienceNo$194 @ 91.5¢
- No$193 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$120 @ 50.0¢
- No$120 @ 50.0¢
- No$112 @ 64.7¢
- Yes$88 @ 65.0¢
- No$69 @ 90.5¢
- No$68 @ 87.4¢
- No$38 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$29 @ 25.0¢