0x22e4…ef1c

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics90 bets

  Hit rate

  51% (46/90)

  ROI

  +9%

• Other86 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (50/86)

  ROI

  -2%

• Tech12 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (7/12)

  ROI

  -51%

• Geopolitics7 bets

  Hit rate

  86% (6/7)

  ROI

  +16%

• Culture4 bets

  Hit rate

  25% (1/4)

  ROI

  -100%

• Sports2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +43%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +43%

• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$4.6k @ 32.8¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
  No$80 @ 8.0¢
• Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$2 @ 30.0¢
• Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 69.0¢
• Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
  Yes$519 @ 84.6¢
• Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
  Yes$25.1k @ 71.5¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$67.1k @ 74.6¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
  Yes$4.1k @ 89.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$110 @ 0.3¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?Won
  No$74 @ 81.2¢
• Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson TideLost
  Texas Tech Red Raiders$7.8k @ 52.0¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$47.9k @ 74.1¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$10.2k @ 79.6¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 20, 2026?Lost
  No$80 @ 8.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
  No$3.4k @ 52.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$6.9k @ 45.9¢
• Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
  No$37.9k @ 79.4¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
  No$3.1k @ 87.0¢
• GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?Won
  Yes$916 @ 75.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
  No$60.4k @ 57.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 10.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$8.4k @ 84.5¢
• St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas JayhawksLost
  Kansas Jayhawks$7.8k @ 39.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
  No$3.5k @ 85.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$7.0k @ 89.7¢
• Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State SpartansLost
  Louisville Cardinals$17.5k @ 35.0¢
• Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State SpartansWon
  Michigan State Spartans$5.8k @ 64.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$54.7k @ 81.1¢
• Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$160 @ 38.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
  Yes$1.7k @ 76.7¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?Lost
  No$80 @ 8.0¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
  No$26.5k @ 75.7¢
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
  Yes$64 @ 63.3¢
• VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniLost
  VCU Rams$16.0k @ 16.0¢
• Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?Won
  No$870 @ 87.0¢
• TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue DevilsWon
  Duke Blue Devils$301 @ 86.0¢
• Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
  No$31.5k @ 56.8¢
• Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Won
  Yes$798 @ 75.4¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
  No$4.4k @ 88.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026?Lost
  No$80 @ 8.0¢
• Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
  Yes$259 @ 38.7¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$9.2k @ 47.3¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 62.0¢
• Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue BoilermakersWon
  Purdue Boilermakers$11.3k @ 75.0¢
• Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
  No$5.2k @ 74.1¢
• Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$2.2k @ 45.2¢
• Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Won
  Yes$847 @ 72.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$500 @ 2.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Lost
  No$4.8k @ 72.7¢
• Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
  No$626 @ 39.4¢

Current positions

• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$13.3k @ 87.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
  No$8.8k @ 88.5¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$4.6k @ 67.7¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$3.5k @ 34.6¢
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 4.2¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
  No$1.6k @ 79.5¢
• Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tech
  Yes$1.1k @ 24.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
  No$805 @ 80.5¢
• Blue wave in 2026?Politics
  Yes$535 @ 77.8¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
  No$459 @ 39.0¢
• OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
  Yes$393 @ 26.0¢
• 5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
  Yes$362 @ 51.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
  Yes$202 @ 24.2¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
  Yes$195 @ 39.1¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
  Yes$151 @ 10.8¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$141 @ 18.0¢
• Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?Politics
  No$15 @ 51.0¢
• Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?Politics
  No$6 @ 63.1¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 76.0¢
• Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?Culture
  Yes$1 @ 50.0¢