0x21f7…e19f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x21f701a6d8febfd948f899114f2b9d9a8ef7e19f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.8pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

46% @ 28.1¢

Brier

0.194

Resolved

168

Avg size

$176

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (5/13)	+126%	13
Politics	20% (2/10)	-33%	10
Geopolitics	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
+126%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-33%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

25% hit · 7/28

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$16	0.1¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$660	11.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	35.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$936	29.3¢	Won
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	4.3¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$382	20.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$436	75.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	55.5¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$36	38.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	Yes	$1.1k	3.3¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$7.3k	28.8¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.3k	17.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$146	16.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	$289	1.8¢	Lost
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$1.0k	21.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$350	35.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $100 on May 6?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$298	29.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?	Yes	$80	6.5¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	$46	2.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin above 82,000 on May 7, 11AM ET?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	34.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$528	22.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	Yes	$594	5.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	No	$117	9.0¢	Lost
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$12	19.0¢	Lost
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	Yes	$394	3.4¢	Lost

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.1¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$660 @ 11.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 35.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$936 @ 29.3¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$382 @ 20.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$436 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$7.5k @ 55.5¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$36 @ 38.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 3.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$7.3k @ 28.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 17.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$146 @ 16.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?Lost
Yes$289 @ 1.8¢
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 21.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$350 @ 35.0¢
Will Solana reach $100 on May 6?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$298 @ 29.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Lost
Yes$80 @ 6.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?Lost
Yes$46 @ 2.3¢
Bitcoin above 82,000 on May 7, 11AM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 34.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
No$528 @ 22.0¢
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?Lost
Yes$594 @ 5.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?Lost
No$117 @ 9.0¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 19.0¢
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?Lost
Yes$394 @ 3.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	—	Yes	$1.0k	10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	—	Yes	$971	10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	—	Yes	$610	5.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	—	Yes	$313	7.5¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$183	17.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$120	6.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$120	6.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	—	Yes	$108	36.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$107	28.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	—	Yes	$92	23.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$72	18.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	—	No	$54	9.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?	—	Yes	$41	4.4¢

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?—
Yes$1.0k @ 10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?—
Yes$971 @ 10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?—
Yes$610 @ 5.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?—
Yes$313 @ 7.5¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
Yes$183 @ 17.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$120 @ 6.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$120 @ 6.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?—
Yes$108 @ 36.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$107 @ 28.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?—
Yes$92 @ 23.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$72 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?—
No$54 @ 9.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?—
Yes$41 @ 4.4¢