0x21f7…e19f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x21f701a6d8febfd948f899114f2b9d9a8ef7e19f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

22% @ 18.4¢

Brier

0.114

Resolved

1041

Avg size

$123

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	22% (30/138)	+73%	138
Politics	23% (9/40)	-27%	40
Geopolitics	9% (1/11)	-85%	11
Crypto	0% (0/6)	-100%	6

Other138 bets
Hit rate
22% (30/138)
ROI
+73%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
23% (9/40)
ROI
-27%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
-85%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%

Track record

21% hit · 40/195

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	$50	5.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	$118	23.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	$11	5.5¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?	Yes	$49	9.9¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	$95	19.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 2?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	$34	6.7¢	Lost
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	$25	5.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	$508	50.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET	Up	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	$43	15.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?	Up	$320	16.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	$25	50.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	$25	3.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	Up	$13	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	$28	6.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	$25	30.2¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	$25	43.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	$25	42.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	$25	5.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$16	0.1¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$660	11.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	35.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	$243	1.1¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$500	25.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$936	29.3¢	Won
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	4.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	$560	55.0¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$328	6.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?	Yes	$600	12.0¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$382	20.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	17.7¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$10	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	49.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	$394	39.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$436	75.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	55.5¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	$807	30.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	$921	18.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$450	45.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	No	$450	21.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	No	$155	38.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	$512	23.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?	Yes	$134	13.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$10	58.0¢	Lost

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ETLost
Down$50 @ 5.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ETLost
Up$118 @ 23.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETLost
Down$11 @ 5.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ETLost
Up$2 @ 2.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?Lost
Yes$49 @ 9.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETLost
Up$95 @ 19.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 2?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ETLost
Up$34 @ 6.7¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETLost
Down$20 @ 10.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ETLost
Up$25 @ 5.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ETLost
Up$508 @ 50.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ETLost
Up$6 @ 0.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ETLost
Up$43 @ 15.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ETLost
Down$10 @ 1.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?Lost
Up$320 @ 16.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETLost
Up$25 @ 50.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ETLost
Down$25 @ 3.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?Lost
Up$13 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ETLost
Up$28 @ 6.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETLost
Up$25 @ 30.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ETLost
Up$25 @ 43.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETLost
Down$100 @ 10.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ETLost
Up$25 @ 42.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ETLost
Up$25 @ 5.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.1¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$660 @ 11.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 35.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Lost
Yes$243 @ 1.1¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$500 @ 25.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$936 @ 29.3¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Won
Yes$560 @ 55.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$328 @ 6.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?Lost
Yes$600 @ 12.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$382 @ 20.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 17.7¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 49.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Won
Yes$394 @ 39.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$436 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$7.5k @ 55.5¢
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Won
Yes$807 @ 30.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?Won
Yes$921 @ 18.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$450 @ 45.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Lost
No$450 @ 21.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?Lost
No$155 @ 38.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?Won
Yes$512 @ 23.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?Lost
Yes$134 @ 13.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Lost
No$10 @ 58.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Other	Yes	$3.2k	63.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	—	Yes	$1.8k	12.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Crypto	Yes	$1.5k	8.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	—	Yes	$1.2k	9.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	—	Yes	$1.0k	10.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	Crypto	Yes	$988	3.3¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$768	10.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 17?	—	Yes	$714	6.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	—	Yes	$660	3.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?	Crypto	Yes	$600	12.0¢
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$594	5.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	—	Yes	$524	23.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	—	Up	$508	50.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on September 22?	Crypto	Yes	$500	5.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	—	Yes	$468	2.3¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$450	22.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12?	—	No	$436	12.6¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$399	8.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 12?	—	Yes	$359	6.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?	—	Yes	$350	7.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 16?	—	No	$330	3.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?	—	Up	$320	16.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	—	Yes	$313	7.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 2?	—	No	$300	12.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Crypto	Yes	$268	1.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 3?	—	No	$252	5.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 16?	—	No	$232	10.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Crypto	Yes	$227	1.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	—	No	$221	14.8¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026?	—	Yes	$206	40.0¢

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Other
Yes$3.2k @ 63.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?—
Yes$1.8k @ 12.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Crypto
Yes$1.5k @ 8.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?—
Yes$1.2k @ 9.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?—
Yes$1.0k @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?Crypto
Yes$988 @ 3.3¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Politics
Yes$768 @ 10.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 17?—
Yes$714 @ 6.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?—
Yes$660 @ 3.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?Crypto
Yes$600 @ 12.0¢
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?Politics
Yes$594 @ 5.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?—
Yes$524 @ 23.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET—
Up$508 @ 50.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on September 22?Crypto
Yes$500 @ 5.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?—
Yes$468 @ 2.3¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Politics
Yes$450 @ 22.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 12?—
No$436 @ 12.6¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$399 @ 8.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 12?—
Yes$359 @ 6.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?—
Yes$350 @ 7.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 16?—
No$330 @ 3.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?—
Up$320 @ 16.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?—
Yes$313 @ 7.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 2?—
No$300 @ 12.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?Crypto
Yes$268 @ 1.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 3?—
No$252 @ 5.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 16?—
No$232 @ 10.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Crypto
Yes$227 @ 1.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?—
No$221 @ 14.8¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026?—
Yes$206 @ 40.0¢