0x2184…00df

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.3pp

ROI

+43%

Win rate

40% @ 33.6¢

Brier

0.124

Resolved

1349

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (65/123)	+25%	123
Politics	65% (20/31)	+25%	31
Tech	35% (7/20)	-59%	20
Geopolitics	45% (9/20)	+381%	20
Crypto	60% (3/5)	+5%	5
Sports	25% (1/4)	-27%	4

Other123 bets
Hit rate
53% (65/123)
ROI
+25%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
65% (20/31)
ROI
+25%
Tech20 bets
Hit rate
35% (7/20)
ROI
-59%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
+381%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+5%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-27%

Track record

52% hit · 105/203

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	No	$3	14.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?	No	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$297	9.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$6	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$9	76.0¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$2	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$6	89.4¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$6	20.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$6	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	Yes	$0	23.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	No	$31	68.4¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$30	4.8¢	Lost
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$41	56.9¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$29	11.5¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$6	14.6¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$6	81.5¢	Won
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$11	2.8¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$25	72.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$11	28.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	43.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	$6	38.0¢	Lost
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?	Yes	$0	2.3¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$4	20.5¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	84.8¢	Won
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$5	1.7¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$3	43.3¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$6	64.3¢	Lost
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$6	34.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$23	17.0¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?	No	$10	5.4¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	$13	76.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	No	$41	85.8¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$9	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$9	22.0¢	Lost
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$6	14.3¢	Won
Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April?	No	$5	88.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	No	$6	54.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$130	78.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$94	17.0¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?	No	$11	80.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$6	33.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	Yes	$18	69.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$88	33.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$260	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$1	72.0¢	Lost

Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$3 @ 14.1¢
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?Lost
No$3 @ 22.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$297 @ 9.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$6 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 76.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$6 @ 89.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 20.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$6 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
Yes$0 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$31 @ 68.4¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$30 @ 4.8¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$41 @ 56.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$29 @ 11.5¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$6 @ 14.6¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 81.5¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Lost
Yes$11 @ 2.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$25 @ 72.2¢
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$11 @ 28.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 43.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 38.0¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.3¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 20.5¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 84.8¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$3 @ 43.3¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
No$6 @ 64.3¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$6 @ 34.0¢
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 17.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?Lost
No$10 @ 5.4¢
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?Lost
Yes$13 @ 76.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?Won
No$41 @ 85.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 22.0¢
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
Yes$6 @ 14.3¢
Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April?Won
No$5 @ 88.7¢
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$6 @ 54.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$130 @ 78.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$94 @ 17.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?Won
No$11 @ 80.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 33.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
Yes$18 @ 69.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 33.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$260 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?Lost
Yes$1 @ 72.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$81	42.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$55	27.3¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$54	69.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$39	77.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$25	77.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	Other	Yes	$24	44.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	89.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$21	14.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	Yes	$18	33.7¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	Yes	$18	25.7¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$18	94.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$17	45.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	91.8¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$16	96.0¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$13	90.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$13	24.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$12	37.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$12	91.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$12	83.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$11	27.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	63.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	15.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?	Tech	No	$7	49.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$6	43.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$6	69.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$6	76.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$6	87.0¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$6	94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$6	20.3¢
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$6	92.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$81 @ 42.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$55 @ 27.3¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$54 @ 69.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$39 @ 77.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$25 @ 77.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Other
Yes$24 @ 44.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 89.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$21 @ 14.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
Yes$18 @ 33.7¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
Yes$18 @ 25.7¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$18 @ 94.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$17 @ 45.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 91.8¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$16 @ 96.0¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$13 @ 90.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$13 @ 24.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$12 @ 37.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$12 @ 91.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$12 @ 83.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$11 @ 27.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 63.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 15.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech
No$7 @ 49.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$6 @ 43.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$6 @ 69.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$6 @ 76.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$6 @ 87.0¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$6 @ 94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 20.3¢
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$6 @ 92.0¢