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0x2136…ee56
SharpEdge
+14.7pp
ROI
+13%
Win rate
97% @ 82.4¢
Brier
0.036
Resolved
175
Avg size
$284
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 83% (5/6) | +22% | 6 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | +14% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +24% | 2 |
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 83% (5/6)
- ROI
- +22%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +14%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +24%
Track record
80% hit · 8/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? | No | $260 | 88.3¢ | Won |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? | No | $64 | 89.9¢ | Won |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | Yes | $25 | 7.0¢ | Lost |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | $10.0k | 87.7¢ | Won |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | No | $175 | 73.0¢ | Won |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | $4.8k | 68.7¢ | Won |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | $9.2k | 82.7¢ | Won |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | Yes | $717 | 68.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | $20.4k | 84.8¢ | Won |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | $616 | 29.3¢ | Lost |
- No$260 @ 88.3¢
- No$64 @ 89.9¢
- Yes$25 @ 7.0¢
- No$10.0k @ 87.7¢
- No$175 @ 73.0¢
- No$4.8k @ 68.7¢
- No$9.2k @ 82.7¢
- Yes$717 @ 68.0¢
- No$20.4k @ 84.8¢
- No$616 @ 29.3¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
- No$23.0k @ 93.2¢
- No$16.0k @ 96.5¢
- No$14.1k @ 83.4¢
- No$3.9k @ 79.9¢
- No$3.7k @ 87.6¢
- No$2.7k @ 49.0¢
- No$2.1k @ 92.8¢
- No$1.3k @ 85.3¢
- No$1.2k @ 82.6¢
- No$812 @ 95.9¢
- No$106 @ 93.5¢
- No$103 @ 88.0¢
- No$74 @ 61.8¢
- No$23 @ 86.8¢
- No$17 @ 90.0¢