← Smart money
0x205b…8edf
SharpEdge
+6.0pp
ROI
+6%
Win rate
40% @ 34.4¢
Brier
0.179
Resolved
310
Avg size
$270
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 11% (5/46) | -30% | 46 |
| Politics | 52% (15/29) | +86% | 29 |
| Other | 45% (5/11) | -28% | 11 |
| Geopolitics | 14% (1/7) | -34% | 7 |
| Crypto | 100% (2/2) | +138% | 2 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +89% | 1 |
- Sports46 bets
- Hit rate
- 11% (5/46)
- ROI
- -30%
- Politics29 bets
- Hit rate
- 52% (15/29)
- ROI
- +86%
- Other11 bets
- Hit rate
- 45% (5/11)
- ROI
- -28%
- Geopolitics7 bets
- Hit rate
- 14% (1/7)
- ROI
- -34%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +138%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +89%
Track record
30% hit · 29/96- Yes$997 @ 24.1¢
- Yes$449 @ 8.7¢
- No$185 @ 55.5¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 14.3¢
- Yes$536 @ 22.9¢
- No$251 @ 72.7¢
- Yes$826 @ 0.3¢
- Yes$4.8k @ 1.4¢
- Yes$80 @ 12.9¢
- No$72 @ 85.4¢
- Yes$432 @ 17.0¢
- No$2.4k @ 42.7¢
- Yes$3.6k @ 10.3¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 1.3¢
- No$391 @ 35.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 2.9¢
- No$35 @ 24.0¢
- Yes$915 @ 36.1¢
- No$23 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 8.0¢
- No$69 @ 83.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.7¢
- No$953 @ 4.9¢
- Yes$3.9k @ 0.5¢
- Yes$618 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 11.5¢
- Yes$910 @ 2.1¢
- No$329 @ 35.5¢
- Yes$89 @ 53.0¢
- Yes$137 @ 7.1¢
- No$1.1k @ 44.6¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 41.3¢
- Yes$9 @ 7.0¢
- No$675 @ 26.9¢
- Yes$65 @ 19.3¢
- Yes$26 @ 55.0¢
- No$905 @ 78.3¢
- Yes$557 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$666 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 76.3¢
- Yes$943 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$112 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$5.0k @ 20.6¢
- Yes$327 @ 46.3¢
- Yes$921 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$72 @ 7.5¢
- Yes$14 @ 5.3¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.4¢
- Yes$50 @ 1.2¢
- Yes$12 @ 0.4¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $1.6k | 63.9¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $1.6k | 71.5¢ |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $1.3k | 75.0¢ |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $894 | 40.7¢ |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | Culture | No | $885 | 90.5¢ |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $390 | 94.8¢ |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $316 | 83.1¢ |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Politics | No | $202 | 85.3¢ |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $197 | 96.1¢ |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $177 | 78.0¢ |
- No$1.6k @ 63.9¢
- No$1.6k @ 71.5¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 75.0¢
- Yes$894 @ 40.7¢
- No$885 @ 90.5¢
- No$390 @ 94.8¢
- No$316 @ 83.1¢
- No$202 @ 85.3¢
- No$197 @ 96.1¢
- No$177 @ 78.0¢