0x1e1f…c855

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1e1f17412069c0736adfaadf8ee7f46e5612c855
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-5.9pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

32% @ 37.9¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

3237

Avg size

$361

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (145/343)	+18%	343
Politics	38% (24/64)	+13%	64
Geopolitics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Sports	25% (1/4)	-33%	4
Tech	33% (1/3)	+14%	3
Culture	100% (2/2)	+19%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+81%	2

Other343 bets
Hit rate
42% (145/343)
ROI
+18%
Politics64 bets
Hit rate
38% (24/64)
ROI
+13%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-33%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+14%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+81%

Track record

41% hit · 174/424

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$50	12.8¢	Lost
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	No	$1.9k	89.5¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries?	Yes	$2	32.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	Yes	$50	50.4¢	Won
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	$82	12.7¢	Lost
Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?	Yes	$820	18.8¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	$276	24.1¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$47	46.0¢	Won
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$1.1k	41.8¢	Won
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?	Yes	$20	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?	No	$1.3k	26.0¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar today?	Yes	$245	51.0¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	No	$1.1k	35.0¢	Lost
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$378	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$7.5k	33.5¢	Lost
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	No	$1.5k	73.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$160	3.2¢	Lost
Yoon arrested by Friday?	No	$12	58.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens	Yes	$9.2k	62.6¢	Won
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	No	$972	73.2¢	Lost
Avalanche vs. Stars	Avalanche	$39	61.0¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris get 80-82m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?	Yes	$15	10.0¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$21.0k	46.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$1.6k	74.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$990	33.0¢	Won
Panthers vs. Jets	Jets	$1.6k	55.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris get 82-84m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?	Yes	$15	10.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?	No	$50	68.5¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$3.3k	30.0¢	Lost
Will Irma Rosibel Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 3% and 6%?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$1.3k	42.3¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1.2k	16.6¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$786	61.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$778	14.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$798	5.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$4.6k	17.6¢	Lost
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?	No	$576	63.4¢	Lost
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?	Yes	$7.1k	71.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	No	$160	3.2¢	Lost
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?	Yes	$8.0k	78.5¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$4.0k	67.5¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$1.9k	18.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$1.6k	12.9¢	Lost
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	No	$491	26.5¢	Won
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$6.3k	62.7¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$712	36.6¢	Lost

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.8¢
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Won
No$1.9k @ 89.5¢
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries?Won
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Won
Yes$50 @ 50.4¢
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Lost
Yes$82 @ 12.7¢
Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?Lost
Yes$820 @ 18.8¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Lost
No$276 @ 24.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$47 @ 46.0¢
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Won
Yes$1.1k @ 41.8¢
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 0% and 3% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$20 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?Lost
No$1.3k @ 26.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Won
Yes$245 @ 51.0¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Lost
No$1.1k @ 35.0¢
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$378 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7.5k @ 33.5¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
No$1.5k @ 73.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$160 @ 3.2¢
Yoon arrested by Friday?Won
No$12 @ 58.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens Won
Yes$9.2k @ 62.6¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Lost
No$972 @ 73.2¢
Avalanche vs. StarsWon
Avalanche$39 @ 61.0¢
Will Kamala Harris get 80-82m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 10.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
Yes$21.0k @ 46.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$1.6k @ 74.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$990 @ 33.0¢
Panthers vs. JetsLost
Jets$1.6k @ 55.0¢
Will Kamala Harris get 82-84m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 10.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?Won
No$50 @ 68.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$3.3k @ 30.0¢
Will Irma Rosibel Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 3% and 6%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 42.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 16.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$786 @ 61.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$778 @ 14.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$798 @ 5.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 17.6¢
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?Lost
No$576 @ 63.4¢
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?Won
Yes$7.1k @ 71.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Lost
No$160 @ 3.2¢
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?Won
Yes$8.0k @ 78.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$4.0k @ 67.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$1.9k @ 18.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 12.9¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Won
No$491 @ 26.5¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$6.3k @ 62.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$712 @ 36.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$161.3k	48.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$60.3k	92.4¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$33.9k	84.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$21.2k	46.9¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$9.3k	62.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$9.2k	92.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$8.9k	56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$4.9k	56.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$4.7k	16.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.9k	29.3¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$2.6k	89.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?	Politics	No	$2.4k	94.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	45.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	27.4¢
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	0.5¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	0.4¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.4¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$161.3k @ 48.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$60.3k @ 92.4¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$33.9k @ 84.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$21.2k @ 46.9¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$9.3k @ 62.1¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$9.2k @ 92.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$8.9k @ 56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$4.9k @ 56.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$4.7k @ 16.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.9k @ 29.3¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$2.6k @ 89.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?Politics
No$2.4k @ 94.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 45.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 27.4¢
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 0.5¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 0.4¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.4¢