0x1cac…6f43

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1cac5c537efec302c6505dd92f907d0193426f43
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.9pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

58% @ 48.7¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

271

Avg size

$140

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (22/44)	+6%	44
Tech	46% (6/13)	+1%	13
Politics	75% (6/8)	+41%	8
Sports	100% (1/1)	+27%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
50% (22/44)
ROI
+6%
Tech13 bets
Hit rate
46% (6/13)
ROI
+1%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+41%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+27%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

52% hit · 35/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$1.1k	75.6¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	No	$509	31.9¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 27, 2026?	Yes	$203	49.4¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$79	79.0¢	Won
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?	No	$11	24.5¢	Lost
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?	Yes	$419	87.8¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$440	58.7¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$91	6.7¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	$9	43.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$449	68.6¢	Lost
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?	No	$1.6k	62.2¢	Won
Will the US strike Syria next?	No	$88	88.5¢	Won
Will the United States win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$184	31.1¢	Lost
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer?	No	$141	4.7¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$65	2.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$719	66.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?	Yes	$234	39.0¢	Won
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.2m?	Yes	$120	12.0¢	Lost
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	$1.3k	78.6¢	Won
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$1.1k	69.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$575	63.9¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$363	7.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?	Yes	$14	28.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$492	82.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$435	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$84	42.0¢	Won
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	No	$1.1k	62.0¢	Lost
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	Yes	$680	68.3¢	Won
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$500	20.0¢	Lost
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer?	No	$789	78.9¢	Won
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$3.2k	64.7¢	Won
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?	Yes	$2.3k	78.4¢	Won
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?	No	$166	34.0¢	Won
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$1.1k	62.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?	No	$177	55.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?	Yes	$27	45.0¢	Won
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	$57	69.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	No	$164	63.8¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	No	$4	2.7¢	Lost
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$3.9k	83.9¢	Won
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$656	3.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$241	6.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	77.3¢	Won
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?	Yes	$23	3.4¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$200	4.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$2.9k	70.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$468	78.0¢	Won
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?	Yes	$1.0k	35.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$173	86.6¢	Won

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 75.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$509 @ 31.9¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$203 @ 49.4¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$79 @ 79.0¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Lost
No$11 @ 24.5¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?Won
Yes$419 @ 87.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$440 @ 58.7¢
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$91 @ 6.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 43.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$449 @ 68.6¢
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?Won
No$1.6k @ 62.2¢
Will the US strike Syria next?Won
No$88 @ 88.5¢
Will the United States win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$184 @ 31.1¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer?Lost
No$141 @ 4.7¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$65 @ 2.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$719 @ 66.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Won
Yes$234 @ 39.0¢
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.2m?Lost
Yes$120 @ 12.0¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Won
No$1.3k @ 78.6¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 69.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$575 @ 63.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$363 @ 7.0¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 28.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$492 @ 82.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$435 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$84 @ 42.0¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Lost
No$1.1k @ 62.0¢
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Won
Yes$680 @ 68.3¢
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$500 @ 20.0¢
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer?Won
No$789 @ 78.9¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 64.7¢
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 78.4¢
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?Won
No$166 @ 34.0¢
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
No$1.1k @ 62.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?Lost
No$177 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on March 27, 2026?Won
Yes$27 @ 45.0¢
Will the US strike Somalia next?Won
Yes$57 @ 69.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$164 @ 63.8¢
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Lost
No$4 @ 2.7¢
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$3.9k @ 83.9¢
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$656 @ 3.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$241 @ 6.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 77.3¢
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?Lost
Yes$23 @ 3.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$200 @ 4.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 70.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$468 @ 78.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 35.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$173 @ 86.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.7k	83.6¢
Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	Sports	No	$820	61.6¢
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?	Tech	No	$509	93.0¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$469	87.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$405	63.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$380	21.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	No	$338	55.2¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	No	$260	48.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$249	83.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$244	61.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	Tech	No	$182	84.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	No	$172	18.9¢
Will Anthony Joshua rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Tech	No	$171	63.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$166	83.0¢
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Tech	No	$155	52.0¢
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Tech	No	$149	83.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	No	$144	20.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$130	62.0¢
Will Conor McGregor rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Tech	Yes	$111	26.4¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Tech	No	$73	33.1¢
Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Tech	No	$58	12.0¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$53	55.5¢
Will Tom Holland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?	Tech	No	$42	38.7¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Tech	No	$38	62.0¢
Will Claire Rattée win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Politics	No	$38	89.5¢
Will Jalen Brunson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Tech	No	$27	67.0¢
Will Kenneth Walker III be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?	Sports	Yes	$1	0.5¢

Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.7k @ 83.6¢
Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Sports
No$820 @ 61.6¢
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Tech
No$509 @ 93.0¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$469 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$405 @ 63.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$380 @ 21.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
No$338 @ 55.2¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
No$260 @ 48.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$249 @ 83.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$244 @ 61.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Tech
No$182 @ 84.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
No$172 @ 18.9¢
Will Anthony Joshua rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?Tech
No$171 @ 63.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
Yes$166 @ 83.0¢
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
No$155 @ 52.0¢
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech
No$149 @ 83.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
No$144 @ 20.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$130 @ 62.0¢
Will Conor McGregor rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?Tech
Yes$111 @ 26.4¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech
No$73 @ 33.1¢
Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Tech
No$58 @ 12.0¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$53 @ 55.5¢
Will Tom Holland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?Tech
No$42 @ 38.7¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Tech
No$38 @ 62.0¢
Will Claire Rattée win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?Politics
No$38 @ 89.5¢
Will Jalen Brunson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?Tech
No$27 @ 67.0¢
Will Kenneth Walker III be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Sports
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢