0x1c86…c427

Specialization by sphere

• Other259 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (195/259)

  ROI

  +2%

• Politics60 bets

  Hit rate

  87% (52/60)

  ROI

  +13%

• Geopolitics13 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (13/13)

  ROI

  +21%

• Crypto5 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (5/5)

  ROI

  +28%

• Business3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +18%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Kennedy Center demolition be announced by September 30?Won
  No$23 @ 91.0¢
• Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$263 @ 87.7¢
• Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by September 30?Won
  No$371 @ 83.7¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$259 @ 89.4¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$243 @ 81.1¢
• Weed rescheduled by September 30?Won
  No$128 @ 85.2¢
• Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?Won
  No$182 @ 91.0¢
• Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by September 30?Won
  No$31 @ 93.0¢
• Will Trump say "Epstein" in September?Won
  No$343 @ 85.7¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$274 @ 90.3¢
• Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by September 30?Won
  No$466 @ 93.2¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Won
  No$270 @ 90.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?Won
  No$271 @ 90.3¢
• Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Won
  No$980 @ 89.1¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Won
  No$1.4k @ 93.5¢
• Will Lauren Boebert resign by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$160 @ 80.0¢
• Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?Won
  No$351 @ 87.7¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Won
  No$628 @ 89.8¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?Won
  No$278 @ 92.7¢
• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$927 @ 77.3¢
• Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?Won
  No$87 @ 87.0¢
• Will there be 9-11 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?Won
  No$103 @ 75.9¢
• Will Argentina dollarize in 2024?Won
  No$8 @ 85.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
  No$355 @ 88.7¢
• Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
  No$434 @ 80.8¢
• Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Won
  No$546 @ 86.0¢
• Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30?Lost
  No$353 @ 70.5¢
• Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Won
  No$1.4k @ 71.9¢
• Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
  Yes$1.9k @ 69.6¢
• Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?Won
  No$85 @ 85.4¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
  No$750 @ 83.4¢
• Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?Lost
  No$104 @ 52.0¢
• Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$420 @ 84.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
  No$1.6k @ 87.1¢
• US government shutdown by October 1?Won
  Yes$711 @ 80.7¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$239 @ 79.7¢
• Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
  No$79 @ 72.6¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$106 @ 87.6¢
• US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
  No$591 @ 73.9¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
  No$267 @ 89.0¢
• Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Won
  Yes$439 @ 87.5¢
• Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Lost
  No$219 @ 73.0¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$342 @ 85.5¢
• U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2025?Won
  No$219 @ 79.5¢
• Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  No$487 @ 80.9¢
• US bank failure in February?Won
  No$8 @ 87.4¢
• Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
  No$343 @ 68.5¢
• Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 8.9¢
• Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?Lost
  No$302 @ 75.0¢

Current positions

• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$619 @ 88.4¢
• Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in September?Politics
  No$490 @ 81.7¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?Politics
  No$375 @ 93.7¢
• Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$358 @ 89.5¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?Crypto
  No$266 @ 88.7¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
  No$184 @ 92.0¢
• Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$182 @ 91.0¢
• Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Politics
  No$180 @ 90.0¢
• Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?Politics
  Yes$170 @ 85.0¢
• Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$90 @ 90.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$81 @ 40.5¢
• Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?Business
  No$57 @ 90.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$51 @ 51.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$50 @ 50.0¢
• Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?Politics
  No$12 @ 60.0¢