0x1c40…445c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1c40d2aca02af38d7faffd3397366346fa04445c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+25.5pp

ROI

+103%

Win rate

51% @ 25.7¢

Brier

0.284

Resolved

160

Avg size

$37

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	21% (6/29)	+111%	29
Tech	22% (2/9)	+96%	9
Politics	100% (2/2)	+50%	2

Other29 bets
Hit rate
21% (6/29)
ROI
+111%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
+96%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+50%

Track record

25% hit · 10/40

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$50	23.8¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	G2	$10	9.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$102	41.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$103	47.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner	Astralis	$5	63.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$100	30.0¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$104	4.6¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$30	27.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$190	0.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$86	25.1¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	$113	7.1¢	Lost
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	$50	42.3¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	$53	14.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$86	35.5¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$112	56.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	$60	24.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$891	42.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$20	64.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$305	16.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	Yes	$13	5.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$46	10.5¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$94	67.1¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	32.2¢	Won
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$74	5.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$5	55.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner	Natus Vincere	$5	28.0¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$69	24.8¢	Won
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$109	20.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	$380	17.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$277	7.7¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$69	2.8¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$51	43.6¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	$29	0.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	Yes	$50	9.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	$10	46.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Yes	$100	60.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$168	7.7¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$26	1.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	$159	31.8¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$50 @ 23.8¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsLost
G2$10 @ 9.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 41.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$103 @ 47.0¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 WinnerLost
Astralis$5 @ 63.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 30.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$104 @ 4.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 27.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$190 @ 0.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$86 @ 25.1¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsLost
Natus Vincere$113 @ 7.1¢
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Won
No$50 @ 42.3¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Lost
No$53 @ 14.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$86 @ 35.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$112 @ 56.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Lost
No$60 @ 24.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$891 @ 42.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 64.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$305 @ 16.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.0¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 10.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$94 @ 67.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 32.2¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 5.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 55.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$5 @ 28.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$69 @ 24.8¢
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$109 @ 20.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
No$380 @ 17.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$277 @ 7.7¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$69 @ 2.8¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$51 @ 43.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Lost
No$29 @ 0.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$10 @ 46.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?Lost
Yes$100 @ 60.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$168 @ 7.7¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 1.8¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?Lost
Yes$159 @ 31.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$522	24.3¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$242	30.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$200	49.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$106	66.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	Yes	$100	20.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$95	24.5¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$79	11.1¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$522 @ 24.3¢
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?Tech
Yes$242 @ 30.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$200 @ 49.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$106 @ 66.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
Yes$100 @ 20.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$95 @ 24.5¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$79 @ 11.1¢