0x1c40…445c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x1c40d2aca02af38d7faffd3397366346fa04445c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+14.3pp

ROI

+41%

Win rate

40% @ 25.7¢

Brier

0.227

Resolved

255

Avg size

$40

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	23% (14/60)	+29%	60
Tech	25% (3/12)	+69%	12
Politics	58% (7/12)	+20%	12
Sports	50% (1/2)	+129%	2

Other60 bets
Hit rate
23% (14/60)
ROI
+29%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
25% (3/12)
ROI
+69%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
+20%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+129%

Track record

29% hit · 25/86

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$50	23.8¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	G2	$10	9.0¢	Lost
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	$5	65.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$102	41.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$103	47.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$170	74.2¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner	Astralis	$5	63.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$100	30.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$17	4.8¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	No	$203	36.8¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$27	3.8¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$104	4.6¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$40	77.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?	Yes	$52	0.9¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$30	27.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$190	0.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$86	25.1¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	$113	7.1¢	Lost
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	$50	42.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$52	52.0¢	Won
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?	No	$50	74.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	$53	14.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$86	35.5¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$73	0.7¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$112	56.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	$60	24.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$891	42.4¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?	No	$60	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	Yes	$10	70.5¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$420	18.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$20	64.0¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	Yes	$160	24.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$305	16.8¢	Lost
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	No	$480	0.4¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	Yes	$13	5.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$46	10.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?	Yes	$25	18.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$94	67.1¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	$95	25.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?	Yes	$40	14.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?	Yes	$5	10.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	32.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	Yes	$3	17.0¢	Won
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$74	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	$152	37.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$42	7.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$4	38.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$5	55.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner	Natus Vincere	$5	28.0¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$50 @ 23.8¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsLost
G2$10 @ 9.0¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 65.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 41.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$103 @ 47.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$170 @ 74.2¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 1 WinnerLost
Astralis$5 @ 63.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 30.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 4.8¢
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Won
No$203 @ 36.8¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$27 @ 3.8¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$104 @ 4.6¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 77.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February?Lost
Yes$52 @ 0.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 27.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$190 @ 0.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$86 @ 25.1¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals PlayoffsLost
Natus Vincere$113 @ 7.1¢
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Won
No$50 @ 42.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$52 @ 52.0¢
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?Won
No$50 @ 74.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Lost
No$53 @ 14.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$86 @ 35.5¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$73 @ 0.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$112 @ 56.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Lost
No$60 @ 24.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$891 @ 42.4¢
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?Lost
No$60 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?Lost
Yes$10 @ 70.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$420 @ 18.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 64.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?Lost
Yes$160 @ 24.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$305 @ 16.8¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Lost
No$480 @ 0.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?Lost
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.0¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 10.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 18.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$94 @ 67.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Lost
Yes$95 @ 25.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?Lost
Yes$40 @ 14.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 32.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?Won
Yes$3 @ 17.0¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Lost
No$152 @ 37.9¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 7.8¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 38.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 55.0¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$5 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$612	21.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$255	69.9¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$169	3.3¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	Tech	Yes	$40	55.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)?	Tech	Yes	$19	8.8¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$612 @ 21.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$255 @ 69.9¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$169 @ 3.3¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?Tech
Yes$40 @ 55.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in January 2027 (ET)?Tech
Yes$19 @ 8.8¢