0x1c14…0869

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics444 bets

  Hit rate

  73% (324/444)

  ROI

  +28%

• Other236 bets

  Hit rate

  61% (143/236)

  ROI

  +36%

• Geopolitics7 bets

  Hit rate

  57% (4/7)

  ROI

  +538%

• Sports6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  +38%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +20%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Trump accuse Venezuela of election interference by July 16?Lost
  Yes$140 @ 28.0¢
• Will Trump say "Bond" in June?Won
  No$5 @ 99.0¢
• Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$8 @ 83.0¢
• Will the Republicans win Clark County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
  No$54 @ 80.4¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?Won
  Yes$24 @ 85.0¢
• Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?Won
  No$249 @ 83.0¢
• Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 20+ times during Speech to the Nation?Won
  No$7 @ 87.0¢
• Will Trump say "Transgender" during Speech to the Nation?Won
  Yes$73 @ 20.3¢
• Will Trump say "Russia" during Speech to the Nation?Won
  Yes$129 @ 42.0¢
• Will Trump say "Maduro" during Speech to the Nation?Won
  Yes$732 @ 71.9¢
• Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Speech to the Nation?Won
  No$114 @ 57.6¢
• Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Speech to the Nation?Won
  Yes$97 @ 68.0¢
• Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Speech to the Nation?Lost
  Yes$43 @ 13.0¢
• Will Trump say "Fraud" or "Fraudulent" during Speech to the Nation?Won
  Yes$479 @ 57.6¢
• France vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceWon
  France$100 @ 79.2¢
• Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?Lost
  No$303 @ 54.3¢
• Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Lost
  Yes$359 @ 9.0¢
• Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceLost
  Norway$100 @ 35.5¢
• Will Trump say "Four More Years" in June?Won
  No$5 @ 99.0¢
• Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?Won
  No$2.5k @ 90.2¢
• Will Trump say "Tiger" in July?Won
  Yes$97 @ 73.7¢
• Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
  Yes$245 @ 52.0¢
• Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?Lost
  Yes$174 @ 49.9¢
• Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceLost
  Germany$87 @ 87.0¢
• Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
  No$683 @ 47.4¢
• Will Lee Zeldin be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
• Will Sean Duffy be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 1.5¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?Won
  Yes$40 @ 98.1¢
• Will the Republican Party win the CA-11 House seat?Won
  No$20 @ 99.1¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Lost
  Yes$551 @ 28.4¢
• Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?Won
  Yes$87 @ 87.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?Won
  No$87 @ 87.0¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  Yes$6.1k @ 14.6¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$780 @ 39.0¢
• Keith Rabois Combo: Republicans win 5 (TX, IA, KS, AK, MI, OH)Won
  No$246 @ 91.0¢
• Will Trump say "Burger" in October?Won
  No$17 @ 89.5¢
• Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Won
  Yes$2.1k @ 19.8¢
• Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Won
  No$184 @ 61.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?Won
  Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?Lost
  No$154 @ 76.6¢
• Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?Lost
  Yes$599 @ 81.4¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLost
  Yes$700 @ 35.0¢
• Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?Won
  Yes$98 @ 89.7¢
• Will Dexter McCoy win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?Won
  Yes$13 @ 74.0¢
• Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$27 @ 89.1¢
• Will the Democrats win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
• Will the Republicans win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
  No$3.2k @ 73.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$3.5k @ 70.0¢
• Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Won
  Yes$26 @ 52.0¢

Current positions

• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$33.9k @ 43.1¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$7.2k @ 4.0¢
• Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
  No$7.1k @ 97.6¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  Yes$5.7k @ 42.2¢
• Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$4.7k @ 0.9¢
• Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$4.3k @ 4.0¢
• Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
  No$3.7k @ 97.9¢
• Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
  No$3.2k @ 89.3¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
  Yes$2.8k @ 84.6¢
• Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.5k @ 0.8¢
• Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2028?Politics
  Yes$2.2k @ 77.5¢
• Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 0.6¢
• Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 84.6¢
• Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 76.4¢
• Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 0.2¢
• Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 53.1¢
• Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 0.6¢
• Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 66.1¢
• Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 66.7¢
• Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
  No$990 @ 94.4¢
• Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 1%?Politics
  No$779 @ 92.8¢
• Will Democrats win young men in the midterms?Politics
  Yes$762 @ 75.8¢
• SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$651 @ 37.0¢
• US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
  Yes$642 @ 38.7¢
• Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?Politics
  Yes$566 @ 7.6¢
• Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
  Yes$530 @ 76.9¢
• Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
  No$530 @ 98.5¢
• Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2028?Politics
  Yes$512 @ 70.0¢
• Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$460 @ 62.4¢
• Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?Politics
  No$453 @ 84.3¢