0x1c14…0869

Specialization by sphere

• Other44 bets

  Hit rate

  52% (23/44)

  ROI

  +69%

• Politics36 bets

  Hit rate

  47% (17/36)

  ROI

  -18%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +245%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?Won
  Yes$3.4k @ 73.7¢
• Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?Won
  Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$807 @ 20.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 58.5¢
• Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
  No$798 @ 61.7¢
• Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 29.0¢
• Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$215 @ 1.7¢
• Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
  No$170 @ 60.4¢
• Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?Won
  Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
• Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?Lost
  Yes$48 @ 3.2¢
• FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 70.3¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 12.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
• Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
  Yes$78 @ 7.4¢
• Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" today?Won
  No$250 @ 50.0¢
• Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
  No$244 @ 69.6¢
• Will Lee Zeldin be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
• Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
  No$19 @ 19.0¢
• Will Trump say "Peanut" during events with Brazilian president?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
• Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Won
  Yes$214 @ 71.4¢
• Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$81 @ 4.1¢
• Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
  Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
• Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
  No$1.5k @ 53.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$8.8k @ 28.9¢
• Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 1.0¢
• Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters?Won
  No$10 @ 47.0¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
• Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Lost
  Yes$1.9k @ 33.2¢
• Will Trump say "Peacemaker" this week? (April 27 - May 3)Won
  No$9 @ 33.6¢
• Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Lost
  Yes$88 @ 22.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 42.8¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Won
  Yes$118 @ 80.6¢
• Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
  Yes$3.9k @ 38.7¢
• Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" this week? (April 27 - May 3)Lost
  No$6 @ 34.3¢
• Will Trump say "Tiger" in May?Won
  Yes$8 @ 63.9¢
• Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?Won
  No$9 @ 84.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Won
  Yes$66 @ 87.9¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$5 @ 78.1¢
• Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?Won
  Yes$860 @ 86.0¢
• Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events?Lost
  Yes$67 @ 55.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
  Yes$56 @ 14.4¢
• Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
  Yes$695 @ 80.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$12.7k @ 52.7¢
• Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Won
  No$7 @ 50.0¢
• Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
  Yes$167 @ 33.0¢
• Will Trump say "Dog" in May?Won
  Yes$36 @ 63.8¢
• Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 8.0¢
• Will Trump say "Six Seven" in April?Won
  Yes$44 @ 36.9¢
• Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1?Lost
  No$32 @ 41.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$260 @ 26.0¢

Current positions

• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$9.9k @ 99.3¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$6.1k @ 14.6¢
• Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$4.0k @ 4.2¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$3.9k @ 3.9¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$3.7k @ 50.0¢
• Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$3.4k @ 1.0¢
• Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?Politics
  No$3.2k @ 99.5¢
• Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$3.1k @ 35.6¢
• Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Politics
  Yes$2.7k @ 50.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the PA-12 House seat?Politics
  Yes$2.5k @ 91.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 42.2¢
• Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 0.6¢
• Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 24.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  Yes$1.9k @ 32.3¢
• Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 72.0¢
• Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?Politics
  Yes$1.6k @ 91.7¢
• Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$1.3k @ 0.5¢
• Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 93.0¢
• Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 87.7¢
• Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 51.0¢
• Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Politics
  Yes$1.0k @ 81.7¢
• Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$981 @ 37.9¢
• Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$875 @ 36.6¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$784 @ 39.0¢
• Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
  No$752 @ 93.1¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$700 @ 35.0¢
• Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  No$686 @ 91.0¢
• US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
  Yes$642 @ 38.7¢
• Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$641 @ 0.6¢
• Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?Politics
  Yes$599 @ 81.4¢