0x1c14…0869

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics187 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (129/187)

  ROI

  -4%

• Other166 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (97/166)

  ROI

  +50%

• Geopolitics5 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (3/5)

  ROI

  +230%

• Sports4 bets

  Hit rate

  25% (1/4)

  ROI

  +10%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?Won
  Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
  Yes$320 @ 16.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$807 @ 20.5¢
• Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
  No$1.5k @ 41.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 58.5¢
• Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
  No$798 @ 61.7¢
• Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 29.0¢
• Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$215 @ 1.7¢
• Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
  No$170 @ 60.4¢
• Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?Won
  Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
• Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  No$432 @ 42.1¢
• Will Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Michigan remarks?Won
  Yes$910 @ 68.0¢
• Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Lost
  No$7 @ 8.1¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$103 @ 22.8¢
• Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Won
  Yes$831 @ 80.8¢
• Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?Won
  No$23 @ 46.0¢
• Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?Lost
  Yes$628 @ 45.0¢
• Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Won
  Yes$785 @ 72.8¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
  Yes$13.0k @ 71.4¢
• Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026?Lost
  Yes$48 @ 3.2¢
• Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
  Yes$3.8k @ 82.6¢
• Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
  No$136 @ 67.0¢
• Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 58.2¢
• Will Brent Bien win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
• Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?Won
  No$56 @ 50.0¢
• Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 58.0¢
• FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 70.3¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 12.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
• Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
  Yes$78 @ 7.4¢
• Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
  No$690 @ 46.6¢
• Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
  No$990 @ 81.0¢
• Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" today?Won
  No$250 @ 50.0¢
• Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
  No$3 @ 64.0¢
• Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
  No$244 @ 69.6¢
• Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?Lost
  No$81 @ 30.0¢
• Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 16.7¢
• Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
  No$19 @ 19.0¢
• Will Trump say "Peanut" during events with Brazilian president?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
• Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Won
  Yes$214 @ 71.4¢
• Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$81 @ 4.1¢
• Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
  No$1.5k @ 54.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$8.8k @ 28.9¢
• Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters?Won
  No$10 @ 47.0¢
• Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
  No$332 @ 64.9¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 6% and 9%?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
• Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 30–35%?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
• Will Trump say "Peacemaker" this week? (April 27 - May 3)Won
  No$9 @ 33.6¢
• Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Lost
  Yes$422 @ 16.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 42.8¢

Current positions

• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  Yes$30.9k @ 28.1¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$13.5k @ 69.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$8.9k @ 64.5¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$8.4k @ 51.1¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$6.7k @ 4.0¢
• Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$5.4k @ 0.9¢
• Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$5.1k @ 35.5¢
• Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$3.8k @ 39.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$3.6k @ 47.2¢
• Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$3.5k @ 36.6¢
• Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$3.5k @ 93.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$3.3k @ 67.0¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$2.7k @ 54.4¢
• Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 86.3¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the PA-12 House seat?Politics
  Yes$2.5k @ 91.0¢
• Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.5k @ 0.8¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?Politics
  Yes$2.4k @ 94.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.3k @ 26.5¢
• Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 24.0¢
• Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 0.6¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 30.7¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.9k @ 27.4¢
• Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
  Yes$1.9k @ 87.2¢
• Will the Republican Party win the MS-02 House seat?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 94.0¢
• Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 93.0¢
• Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 89.7¢
• Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 81.1¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.6k @ 28.7¢
• Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 76.6¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 66.6¢