← Smart money
0x1a30…eab1
ProfitableEdge
+23.4pp
ROI
+9%
Win rate
83% @ 59.9¢
Brier
0.246
Resolved
30
Avg size
$33
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 60% (3/5) | +21% | 5 |
| Sports | 50% (1/2) | -7% | 2 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +21% | 1 |
- Other5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +21%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -7%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +21%
Track record
63% hit · 5/8| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $68 | 40.9¢ | Lost |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | Yes | $5 | 50.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $360 | 89.9¢ | Won |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? | Yes | $100 | 84.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | No | $77 | 59.0¢ | Won |
| Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? | Yes | $131 | 51.0¢ | Won |
| NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? | No | $46 | 82.6¢ | Won |
| Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31? | No | $209 | 86.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$68 @ 40.9¢
- Yes$5 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$360 @ 89.9¢
- Yes$100 @ 84.0¢
- No$77 @ 59.0¢
- Yes$131 @ 51.0¢
- No$46 @ 82.6¢
- No$209 @ 86.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Geopolitics | No | $413 | 91.7¢ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | Politics | No | $198 | 99.2¢ |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Politics | No | $197 | 98.7¢ |
| Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $147 | 91.4¢ |
| NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? | Politics | No | $93 | 93.0¢ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $75 | 75.0¢ |
| Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? | Sports | Yes | $75 | 75.0¢ |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $47 | 93.0¢ |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | Politics | Yes | $46 | 91.2¢ |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Politics | No | $40 | 79.0¢ |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31? | Politics | No | $18 | 97.0¢ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $8 | 17.0¢ |
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?GeopoliticsNo$413 @ 91.7¢
- No$198 @ 99.2¢
- No$197 @ 98.7¢
- Yes$147 @ 91.4¢
- No$93 @ 93.0¢
- No$75 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
- No$47 @ 93.0¢
- Yes$46 @ 91.2¢
- No$40 @ 79.0¢
- No$18 @ 97.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 17.0¢